I’m starting to see articles about the slowing real estate market. The latest statistics, as seen in this report, certainly don’t support any cooling whatsoever! The second quarter of 2021 will be remembered as one of the most crazy times we have seen in our market. Despite lower than normal inventory, sales during the quarter were at the highest level since we began publishing The Kearney Report in 2007. Because of the pandemic, the comparative statistics are wonky but this past quarter had more sales than the bounce back third quarter of last year and 16% above the second quarter of 2019.
During the quarter, multiple offers were the norm rather than the exception. 64% of the sales during the quarter closed for above the list price. Overall during the quarter, properties sold for 4.9% above the list price.This includes 292 properties that closed for less than list price.When looking exclusively at the 1,049 properties that sold at a premium price, the average premium paid was $8.62% or $63,000. The competitive bidding caused by high demand and a low supply of homes on the market has caused prices to jump quickly.
It’s just a snapshot in time, but across the county, the one year appreciation is around 20%!The median price for sales during the second quarter was $685,000 (includes all typed of properties), this is 29% higher than the $530,000 median price of just a year ago.The median price of residential properties (both condos and single family) in the City of Boulder during the second quarter was $862,500 and the average price was $1,156,825.
At the end of the quarter inventory was 25% lower than it was a year ago and 30% lower than it was two years ago. This is caused by two factors: fewer owners selling their homes and houses selling and closing very quickly.For reference the end of month inventory in June 2014 was 2,159 and this year it was just 1,189.A 45% decrease!
Houses are selling quickly!On average, it took 19 days to place a house under contract. This is down from 32 days a year ago.Another statistic that measures the strength of the market is the absorption refresh rate.It shows how quickly the current inventory would be depleted given the current sales rate if no new listings were to come to the market.A balanced market is 6 months.Anything less is a sellers market and anything longer is a buyers market.At the current inventory refresh rate of 2 months we are firmly in a sellers market.
For sellers this continues to be a really great time to sell. It seems that the best strategy is to price the home close to the recent comparables and let the buyers take it higher.Sellers who try the opposite, price it high because the market is so strong are not having as much success.Buyers are either quickly learning what type of aggressive offers are needed to succeed in winning bidding wars or they are stepping aside and waiting for a quieter time in the market. As the market slows a touch, it seems we are seeing a few more potential buyers step back and wait.
As always it’s good to remember that the real estate market is always changing and is cyclical.The pandemic and the post pandemic (are we through it yet?) property rush, which is being seen nationwide, could not have been predicted and has twisted the normal cycle in a new direction. In the meantime homes continue of sell and as always, I’m actively helping buyers and sellers successfully close transactions. I’m always here for you to be of service and would be honored if I’m your first call when you need real estate advice.Enjoy the report and stay in touch!
The full report can be viewed or downloaded below. Here are a few screen shots of the first few pages.
If you happen to be reading this you already know that the real estate market in Boulder County is unusually strong. Multiple offers are prevalent, prices are rising quickly and houses are selling quickly. But are all price ranges equal in their strength? This may be helpful to set appropriate expectations for both sellers and buyers in the Boulder area.
Under Contract Percentage
$0 – $500k 66%
$500k – $1M 67%
$1M – $1.5M 55%
$1.5M – $2M 47%
$2M – $2.5M 39%
$2.5M – $3M 38%
> $3M 31%
Currently 62.5% of all residential listings in Boulder County are already under contract.
Days To Contract
$0 – $500k 22 days
$500k – $1M 20 days
$1M – $1.5M 31 days
$1.5M – $2M 43 days
$2M – $2.5M 47 days
$2.5M – $3M 33 days
> $3M 78 days
The Boulder County average year-to-date is 22 days.
Inventory Absorption Rate
Inventory Absorption Rate measures how quickly the inventory of homes is getting turned over. I used the sales rate over the past six months to calculate how long it would take to sell all of the current inventory of homes (this includes active, active/backup and pending). The National Association of Realtors has said that a balanced market, neither a buyers market or a sellers market, has an absorption rate of six months. The average for Boulder County is 2.9 months.
$0 – $500k 2.3 months
$500k – $1M 3.1 months
$1M – $1.5M 2.9 months
$1.5M – $2M 3.29 months
$2M – $2.5M 3.25 months
$2.5M – $3M 6.5 months
> $3M 7.87 months
Did It Sell For Below or Above the List Price (Negotiation or Premium?)
$0 – $500k + 2.44%
$500k – $1M + 3.86%
$1M – $1.5M + 4.04%
$1.5M – $2M + 1.46%
$2M – $2.5M + 1.76%
$2.5M – $3M – .63%
> $3M – 2.74%
The average sale from January through today, June 25, 2021, closed for 2.2% above the listing price.
Conclusion
While the market is strong throughout all price ranges, it is clear by looking at all three of these statistics that more modestly priced homes are enjoying a stronger market than the higher price ranges. This is especially true for homes over $3 million. Buyers in that price range have a variety of homes to view and consider. This is not true in the lower price ranges where homes sell so quickly that at any one time there is not much to look at.
It would have been a big stretch for someone to predict what has happened over the last few months.As the stay-at-home orders lifted we have seen a surge in demand for homes. Not only in our local market but almost universally across the country. And just as buyer demand has surged the supply of homes has fallen to near record lows in the modern era.This convergence, along with low interest rates and a surging stock market have caused competition among buyers of the like I have not before seen.
We have seen times where multiple offers were prevalent, but this time the stakes have been upped and buyers are coming in well above asking price and waiving other contingencies to boot.As a result prices are increasing quickly and appraisers are staying on their toes to keep up.
Here are some of the key statistics for Boulder County real estate for the first quarter of 2021:
Total sales were up 11% for the quarter.There were 1,132 sales, up from 1,018.
The median price for all Boulder County single family home sales during the quarter was $566,650 which is up 2% from the same time frame a year ago.This seems low and is just a snapshot in time for each quarter.
The average days to accept an offer decreased by 16 days to 33.
Over the past decade owning real estate in Boulder County has been a great investment!Cumulative appreciation over the last five years has equalled 34%.Since 1991 we have seen homes increase in value by 438% (FHFA.gov).This is #1 in the nation.
This report shows positive signs in all aspects of the home sale market in Boulder County.I expect this trend to continue, but there is still much uncertainty ahead.Homes continue of sell and as always, I’m actively helping buyers and sellers successfully close transactions.I’m always here for you to be of service.Enjoy the report and stay in touch!
Fourth Quarter Boulder County Real Estate Market Report The fourth quarter of 2020 was very strong! The last three months were a continuation of a pandemic trend that started started in June just as the strictest stay-at-home orders were lifted. It turns out that...
As I have detailed in my recent blog posts, the market has rebounded very well during the summer and fall of 2020. Sales have now surpassed last years sales through the same time period and prices are again on the rise. The big issue we are seeing is not demand, it is supply. The inventory is very low and as of this writing, 59% of the active listings in Boulder County are marked as “under contract” or “pending”.
This blog post will specifically highlight the luxury segment of the Boulder County real estate market. Has it bounced back as quickly and as strong as the market in general? Are luxury condos keeping up with single family homes? How is the ultra luxury segment doing? Read and watch on, I’ll try to answer those questions as well as others.
First of all, $1,000,000 used to be an impressive sum for a house in this area. Not so much anymore. In fact, the median price of a single family home sale in Boulder so far this year is $995,000 and the average price is $1,266,000. Spending $1,000,000 doesn’t exactly set you apart these days. However, for this blog post, I’m going to give information on both the $1 – $2 million price range as well as the $2 million and above price range.
City of Boulder – Single Family
$1- $2 Million
55% of the 93 listings in the City of Boulder area under contract.
158 sales so far this year which is a 9% increase.
3.5 months of active inventory if the sales rate over the last six months persists. (According to National Association of Realtors this is a sellers market)
More than $2 Million
32% of the 72 listings in the City of Boulder area under contract.
50 sales so far this year which is a 31% increase.
8.6 months of active inventory if the sales rate over the last six months persists. (According to National Association of Realtors this is a buyers market)
City of Boulder Attached Dwelling
$1- $2 Million
31% of the 36 listings in the City of Boulder area under contract.
14 sales so far this year which is a 33% decrease.
15.4 months of active inventory if the sales rate over the last six months persists. (According to National Association of Realtors this is a buyers market)
More than $2 Million
62% of the 16 listings in the City of Boulder area under contract. (*see note below)
0 sales so far this year. There were three during the first 10+ months last year.
*Note – All 11 active listings that are under contract are new construction condominium projects. The price range on these projects are $2.2 million to $3.5 million. There are a few units available at 3rd and Pearl. Let me know if you have interest.
For Comparison – Boulder County – All Price Ranges
59% of the 93 listings in the City of Boulder area under contract.
3,171 sales so far this year which is a 1% increase.
3.29 months of active inventory if the sales rate over the last six months persists. (According to National Association of Realtors this is a sellers market)
What’s Happening With the Ultra Luxury Market – $4,000,000 and up?
It’s a national trend, the wealthy are on the move! The pandemic has caused many people to question whether their current home is the best place to work from home and stay safe with their family while still enjoying the outdoors. Many with second homes have moved in full-time. Others are leaving their high-end, city properties and heading for lifestyle locations like Boulder. Here are the statistics for properties $4,000,000 and above in Boulder County this year.
There was definitely a summer surge for these types of properties. 10 of the 16 sales closed in August, September or October. The good news is that there are still quite a few properties to consider in this price range.
There are currently 37 active listings. Three of which are under contract.
The current listings, updated continually appear below.
I’m starting to see articles about the slowing real estate market. The latest statistics, as seen in this report, certainly don’t support any cooling whatsoever! The second quarter of 2021 will be remembered as one of the most crazy times we have seen in our market. Despite lower than normal inventory, sales during the quarter were at the highest level since we began publishing The Kearney Report in 2007. Because of the pandemic, the comparative statistics are wonky but this past quarter had more sales than the bounce back third quarter of last year and 16% above the second quarter of 2019.
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