by neil kearney | Sep 17, 2009 | Statistics
|
# New |
Price Drops |
# U/C |
# Sold |
Median $ of Sold |
| 30-Apr |
166 |
142 |
125 |
81 |
$ 317,900 |
| 7-May |
182 |
170 |
141 |
90 |
$ 294,700 |
| 14-May |
211 |
170 |
126 |
46 |
$ 301,950 |
| 21-May |
220 |
169 |
140 |
92 |
$ 275,950 |
| 28-May |
167 |
165 |
137 |
66 |
$ 272,450 |
| 4-Jun |
213 |
204 |
131 |
141 |
$ 324,500 |
| 11-Jun |
210 |
198 |
155 |
74 |
$ 296,400 |
| 18-Jun |
222 |
191 |
125 |
94 |
$ 339,950 |
| 25-Jun |
178 |
223 |
131 |
100 |
$ 339,900 |
| 2-Jul |
163 |
158 |
132 |
150 |
$ 299,000 |
| 9-Jul |
157 |
181 |
102 |
81 |
$ 332,900 |
| 16-Jul |
187 |
197 |
121 |
93 |
$ 289,900 |
| 23-Jul |
166 |
211 |
95 |
92 |
$ 334,450 |
| 30-Jul |
149 |
189 |
109 |
110 |
$ 278,950 |
| 6-Aug |
155 |
197 |
106 |
144 |
$ 312,450 |
| 13-Aug |
161 |
202 |
105 |
84 |
$ 319,975 |
| 20-Aug |
178 |
187 |
120 |
79 |
$ 345,000 |
| 27-Aug |
156 |
163 |
113 |
88 |
$ 317,475 |
| 3-Sep |
138 |
173 |
112 |
103 |
$ 285,000 |
| 10-Sep |
112 |
139 |
100 |
63 |
$ 284,900 |
| 17-Sep |
163 |
159 |
114 |
63 |
$ 317,000 |
I have been doing this since late April and what I find interesting is the comparison between the number of properties that go under contract and the number that actually close. The graph above shows that in most weeks (with the usual exception being around the end of each month) the number of properties that go under contract exceeds the number that close. There is a lag of 30 to 45 days from contract to closing, but eventually the sales should be realized. What the statistics above do not show are the number of properties that go under contract but fall out of contract along the way. I am seeing it in my own business. Buyers are very fickle and to keep a transaction together takes a great amount of work.
by neil kearney | May 31, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Uncategorized
Spring is here and summer is just around the corner. Activity has definitely picked up but to me the market still rings a little hollow. There are some great listings out there that have yet to find a buyer. Some real head scratchers. The news lately has been hinting about an economic recovery in late 2009, 
the earlier the better as far as we are concerned. I think we are well positioned for recovery of our own but the national economic engine has to warm up before we will see it locally.
Combined sales during April were up 3.5% from March, but were down roughly 38% from April 2008. Much of the activity is in the lower ranges of each area but median prices are still resisting large statistical loses. There are specific homes which are selling for less than they did a year or two before so it will be interesting what the future holds. Will prices slide before the economic recovery takes hold? I think there is some risk of that in the higher price ranges. We’ll see, prediction is an activity rife with failure. Remember Y2k?
Here is what is happening right now.
I have included some under contract percentage statistics that compare May mid month data from 2007 and 2009. For single family homes, there is a smaller percentage of homes under contract in all areas but Longmont, Erie and Weld County. I don’t think that there is any coincidence that these are areas where good low priced deals can be found.
In general, condos and townhomes are faring much better than single family homes. Under contract percentage is up or equal in 7 of the 9 areas. Superior should the best improvement with an increase of 13%.
Single Family 2009 (2007)
· Louisville 29.5% (36.5%) of active homes are under contract
· Boulder 13.7% (29.6%)
· Superior 26.3% (28.4%)
· Lafayette 17.1% (23%)
· Boulder County 16.6% (19.6%)
· Longmont 23% (14.7%)
· Suburban Plains 12.3% (14.7%)
· Suburban Mountains 9.7% (11.2%)
· Erie 13.7% (10.9%)
· Weld County 18.1% (9.46%)
Condos 2009 (2007)
· Louisville 20% (30.6%)
· Boulder 21.7% (26.4%)
· Boulder County 20% (20.4%)
· Lafayette 28.9% (18.1%)
· Suburban Plains 18.6% (17.3%)
· Longmont 14.4% (10.3%)
· Weld County 9.4% (9.8%)
· Superior 16.6% (3%)
· Erie 7.6% (2.6%)
by neil kearney | Apr 20, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Recent headlines have stated that sales for the first quarter in Boulder fell 50%. It is true, numbers don’t lie, but the headline was vague. I’d like to clarify this information a bit, by breaking down the first quarter statistics in Boulder, Colorado into more manageable chunks.
The tables below show first quarter data for closed sales in the City of Boulder. The yellow box shows all sales within the city, both condos and single family homes. The green box shows single family home sales and the blue box shows condo sales. Combined sales were down 35%, single family sales were down 50% and condo sales were down just 15%.
What this information brings to light is the strength in the lower price ranges. Sales of condos below $500,000 (which includes 85% of all sales) was down just 13% and sales of single family homes in the same range were down 44%. I thought this breakdown was interesting, I hope you agree. Leave a comment if there is a segment of the market you would like shown in detail.
| Combined |
|
|
|
|
2008 |
2009 |
Change |
| <$550K |
160 |
120 |
-25% |
| $500 – $750K |
63 |
33 |
-48% |
| $750K – $1MM |
21 |
10 |
-52% |
| $1MM – $1.25MM |
5 |
3 |
-40% |
| $1.25MM – $1.5MM |
9 |
6 |
-33% |
| >$1.5MM |
12 |
4 |
-67% |
| Total |
270 |
176 |
-35% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Single Family |
|
|
|
|
2008 |
2009 |
Change |
| <$550K |
62 |
35 |
-44% |
| $500 – $750K |
51 |
24 |
-53% |
| $750K – $1MM |
20 |
8 |
-60% |
| $1MM – $1.25MM |
4 |
3 |
-25% |
| $1.25MM – $1.5MM |
8 |
3 |
-63% |
| >$1.5MM |
8 |
3 |
-63% |
| Total |
153 |
76 |
-50% |
|
|
|
|
| Condos |
|
|
|
|
2008 |
2009 |
Change |
| <$500K |
98 |
85 |
-13% |
| $500 – $750K |
12 |
9 |
-25% |
| $750K – $1MM |
1 |
2 |
100% |
| $1MM – $1.25MM |
1 |
0 |
-100% |
| $1.25MM – $1.5MM |
1 |
3 |
200% |
| >$1.5MM |
4 |
1 |
-75% |
| Total |
117 |
100 |
-15% |
by neil kearney | Apr 13, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Grand Escalante National Monument is a place in Southern Utah where all of the different layers of rock are exposed for all of those brave enough to go have a look. I for one love an adventure, and take any chance I can get to spend some time in that beautiful region. Since I cannot take the trip right now I thought I would do a little back country adventuring into the layers of Boulder real estate.
Desert Mesa at Sunset – March 2004
As I mentioned last week, the market for real estate priced below $500,000 in Boulder is actually quite healthy. It is the market over $1 million that is feeling the burn right about now. In order to throw a bit more light on the differences between the price ranges, I thought a comparison of under contract percentage and absorbtion rate would help clear up any question on where the strength in the market is right now.
The following statistics were taken from the IRES MLS system and reflect houses that use Boulder as a mailing city.
Under Contract Ratio:
|
U/C % |
| < $500,000 |
23% |
| $500,001 – $1,000,000 |
15% |
| $1,000,001 – $1,500,000 |
7% |
| > $1,500,000 |
5% |
Absorption Rate (Inventory): using the sales rate over the past 6 months
|
Inventory |
| < $500,000 |
11 months |
| $500,001 – $1,000,000 |
21 months |
| $1,000,001 – $1,500,000 |
31 months |
| > $1,500,000 |
68 months |
Let’s first look at the under contract ratio. This simply shows the activity in the market right now. It compares the number of properties on the market with the number of those properties that have a contract on them. According to Fannie Mae 15% is the lower end of a normal market. This means that all homes in Boulder below $1 million are part of a normal market. Sales are down and the number of homes on the market are down so this year’s normal market is not so robust as past years normal markets. Right now there are too few buyers for the homes listed above $1 million. Fewer than 7% of the homes in that range are under contract. Competition is feirce and if a seller is smart they need to price their home very well in order to get it sold.
The absorption rate has been rising over the past few months. This is in direct correlation to fewer sales. I usually use a 12 month average but today I thought it was more accurate to use the past six months of sales data to illustrate the point. Given the monthly sales rate over the past six months it would take 11 months to sell all of the homes in the strongest price range and 68 months (5.5 years) to sell all of the homes currently on the market listed over $1.5 million. As the spring sales begin to kick in these number will fall but they are still very high. Another indication that we are over supplied in the upper end of our market. If you are curious the absorption rate using 12 month sales data, the numbers are lower but the idea is the same. Here are the conservative numbers:
6.2 months; 11.5 months; 21.9 months; and 51.5 months (same categories and order as above.
by neil kearney | Apr 9, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends
An article titled “Sales Cut in Half” by John Aguilar appeared above the fold in today’s Boulder Daily Camera. It referenced the recent sales statistics of single family homes in the City of Boulder. The article has announced to the general public what I have been seeing for a few months, activity is 
down. This does not mean that the sky is falling or that we are following Detroit, Phoenix and Las Vegas into a real estate armageddon. What it means, is that we have been hit, like everyone, by a perfect storm that is not conducive for Boulder’s particular market.
Home sales depend upon buyers who are in a position to buy. This means they have a stable job, money for a down payment, good credit and verifiable reserves. During the past decade a buyer could fudge on 2 or 3 of these and still get away with it. This leinancy was a very strong grease to the wheels of the market. Now you need all four factors to buy a home. This has taken many people out of the market.
Boulder is a high priced area and many of the houses are only attainable by getting a large mortgage on the house. If a buyer doesn’t have a substantial down payment a jumbo mortgage must be obtained. Right now conventional interest rates are in the 4’s but jumbo loans are much higher. Higher jumbo rates combined with a decline in the stock market, increased unemployment and low consumer confidence has made demand for homes in the upper ranges lower than normal. Unfortunately, this lower demand comes at a time when we have an oversupply of homes over $1 million. This market is the one that is hurting right now in Boulder. Market below $500,000 is actually quite healthy.
All of this bad news has happened when our sales are traditionally low. As spring progresses and as the economy turns around sales will increase. Boulder has very few foreclosures and a very resilient set of sellers. Our market is not in a position to go down quickly. Last April there were 65 home sales in Boulder, so far this month there have been just 6 so far. However there are 65 homes currently under contract in the city. Not all will close this month, but clearly we will close more than the 35 that closed in March. I will be watching closely but not looking at each segment in the market is not getting the entire story.
