The Aftermath of the Colorado Floods

The Aftermath of the Colorado Floods

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Flickr photo courtesy of JgColorado

Colorado is a semi-arid region. In Boulder, we average just under 25 inches of precipitation. Our normal weather this time of year is clear and crisp with warm days and cool nights. If we do get rain, it comes from the west over the mountains and quickly passes to the east where the large storms form and move like islands across the Great Plains.  However, starting on Monday September 9th, the convergence of a monsoon flow from the south met a stalled cool front from the north caused an unprecedented amount of rainfall.  During a six day period we received almost 75% of our annual expected rainfall.  The result was massive flooding. Here are some of my thoughts regarding what has happened and what might happen next. The Daily Camera has a comprehensive series of articles on the flood posted here.  What I present here is just a small slice of the story as it pertains to me and to what I pay attention to. The Event:

  • When you think flooding, you think of major waterways becoming overwhelmed by water from the tributaries. What happened here was the result of wide spread, sustained rain that caused every ditch, canal and drainage to fill and many times overflow with water.  The City of Boulder has made some great decisions over the years as the area around Boulder Creek was developed. Adjacent bike paths and designed drainage areas mainly contained Boulder Creek in a manageable way. Where the real damage was done was on the minor waterways and from sewer backups which resulted from the overwhelming of the system by rain and floodwater.
  • Flooded basements were very common around town.  There have been a few reoccurring stories of how basements filled with water. 1) As water ran down streets, through alleys and through yards water found its way into window wells, doorways and through vents into basements and crawlspaces.  2) As groundwater rose, water came up through the floor.  This is what happened to us. Our sump pit had been bone dry for 7 years and when the time came for the pump to do its job we found that is was DOA.  After bailing manually for a few hours we gave up and moved our stuff upstairs.  A few hours after abandoning our efforts the water rose to 2.5 inches.  3) The third and most troubling way water found its way into local basements was through the floor drains or toilets in the form of a backup from the city sewer line.   In the end, thousands and thousands of basements were flooded to the point where major cleanup was necessary.
  • Flickr photo courtesy of sebrenner

    Flickr photo courtesy of sebrenner

    Regionally there was major damage to the infrastructure. The town of Lyons has been evacuated and the water and sewer infrastructure are inoperable.  There is not a timeline established as to when residents will be able to move back in.  Our mountain towns were hit especially hard with road damage. Many routes are impassible and it’s going to take many years for the rebuilding to take place.

The Cleanup:

  • As the rains subsided and the water ran downstream the damage to homes became apparent. I started Friday the 13th by cutting out and hauling outside a thoroughly soaked carpet and pad.  We also had to move out all of the other stuff that was in storage.  Many of it was lost due to water damage.  So long old yearbooks, school notes and files.  The city in conjunction with Western Disposal began to set out roll off dumpsters from residents to place flood damaged debris.  Many of these locations were overrun and the overflow of destroyed items took over parking lots and streets.
  • Cleanup is hard work and for those with sewage festering in the basement it is a dangerous and dirty job.  The local restoration, cleanup companies were overwhelmed with the calls and soon there were trucks from all over the country in town to help with the cleanup.  I’m lucky, I am handy, healthy and have the help of my family and the four of us were able to clear out, dry out, cut out the bottom 8 inches of drywall and haul it all away. But many needed others to help and while there were many, many volunteers who were the saving grace to some, many have been forced to pay the huge sums charged by cleanup companies to do the work.  A typical charge was over $5000 to do the work.

What’s Next:

  • SONY DSCHardship: Most people have figured out by now that flooding of any sort isn’t covered by the typical homeowners insurance. This means that the cost of cleanup and repair will come directly out of personal back accounts.  This hurts for some and is impossible for others.  I suspect that many basements that were formally finished will remain at least partially unfinished for quite some time.
  • Rebuilding: Being in the carpet, roofing or drywall business would be good right about now. There will be a huge effort to get work done and I suspect that many contractors will be busy for months to come making repairs, installing carpets and doing work that will help prevent it from happening again.
  • Changes: We have been dodging this flood for a long time. We were overdue and historically we have flood events to some extent every 10 years or so. So what we can best do now beyond rebuilding is to learn from this and make sure we are better prepared for the future.  This will hopefully happen at the community level but it needs to happen at the individual level as well.  Each of us needs to make sure that we have the right tools (there were 1,000 people in line to get sump pumps on Saturday morning when a truckload arrived) and make sure our drainage is as minor as it could be.

The Real Estate View:

  • Under Contract: I don’t have exact statistics on this but I heard many stories about damage to houses that were under contract getting ready to close.  I lucked out, all of my pending sales were high and dry and my listings mostly made it out unscathed.  What happens if there is damage to a house right before closing? Paragraph 19.1 in the Colorado Contract to Buy and Sell Real Estate address this instance.  It says that the seller is obligated to repair any damage. If the damage isn’t fixed by closing or if the total damage exceeds 10% of the contract price then the buyer has a right to terminate the contract or to continue with the contract and work out the details of  payment and repair with the seller and the insurance company.
  • Disclosure: Sellers are required to disclose whether there has ever been any water problems in the house. There was a huge percentage of homes that had never had any water and now have to say “yes”.  It is now important for sellers and those who will sell in the future (yes, this means you) to document the extent of the water, explain the reason and detail the cleanup methods and timing.
  • Flood maps: It turns out that flood maps are theoretical and inaccurate. I have seen where the flow of Boulder Creek was characteristic of a 50 year flood. On the other hand, neighborhoods were flooded out that were outside of the 500 year flood zone. The bottom line is that the maps will need to be redrawn with actual data.  I’m guessing the result will be more people in the flood zone.
  • Insurance:  Most people don’t have flood insurance. If you are outside the 100 year flood zone on the official maps flood insurance is optional. Homeowners insurance doesn’t include flood damage so most people with damage are left without financial assistance.  FEMA assistance is available to those with damage (Call 800-621-3362) and many will be taking out loans to re-build. We had sump-pump rider on our policy and ended up with a check for $1500 which will help with new carpet and drywall repair.

After living in Boulder for over 40 years I now have a new appreciation for what is possible. I know I will be looking at real estate with a different eye.

The real estate market is off to a strong start!

The real estate market is off to a strong start!

As I mentioned before, 2012 was a rebound year. The activity in the Boulder area real estate market was consistently strong throughout the year. If January is any indication, the trend is continuing. Sales in January were up 27% from last January. The first chart below shows the sales activity by month over the past five years.

Taking it one step further, the chart below shows the sales that closed in Boulder County on a weekly basis over the past four years. The purple line shows the closings over the four weeks of January and the strength in the market is clearly visable. Remember that the normal time between contract and closing is roughly 30 to 45 days so the buyers were picking out these homes in November and December.

Going forward here is what I see. I predict that we will continue to gain needed inventory (we are just about where we were a year ago) and the market will continue to be strong throughout the spring.

In the world of finance there is the Purchasing Managers Index. This is an indicator of economic activity that gives the world a good idea where the economy in the United States is heading.  For the real estate market we have the Pending Sales Index.  For our local market the best we can do is track the number of properties that are under contract.  I have been doing this for quite some time. Every Thursday morning at 8:30 I run a saved search that gives me the number of new listings that have hit the market, the number of sales and the number of homes that have gone under contract.  Using this I can get a sneak peak on how the numbers are going to look in the future.  Right now (see below) we are in full gear and tracking a bit ahead of past years.

Top Real Estate News Headlines

Top Real Estate News Headlines

The year end statistics are coming out from various sources around the country and the broad consensus is that real estate had a surprisingly strong rebound year. Here are a few recent articles that summarizes the state of real estate across the union.

The Year Everyone Was Wrong (Again) About Home Prices – Wall Street Journal – January 22, 2012

The premise of this article is that nobody predicted that 2012 would see real estate price appreciation.  Here are a few excepts:

Looking back at the survey from December 2011shows that around 42 panelists, of the 94 that made their predictions public, saw prices declining on a year-over-year basis in 2012. The other 52 said prices would either rise or remain flat in 2012. Panelists base their home-price estimates on what they expect the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city index to show.

Even the most bullish respondent in the late 2011 survey may have understated the actual 2012 home price gain, which won’t be tabulated and released by Standard & Poor’s until late February. Constance Hunter, the deputy chief investment officer of AXA Investment Managers, called for a 4.4% gain. In October, the Case-Shiller 20-city index stood 4.3% above last year’s level. (By March, Ms. Hunter revised down her forecast, calling for a gain of just 1.7% for 2012).

Housing to drive economic growth (finally!) – CNN Money – January 27, 2012

It is well known and well reported that the housing sector was a key force in the economic downturn. The sub-prime mortgage mess, foreclosures, home depreciation, construction stoppages were just some of the negative subjects related to real estate over the past few years.

For most people, their home is their biggest investment and with the value of that investment so goes their confidence. During the first six years of the 2000’s the United States saw a rapid rise in home prices (that’s what a bubble is called before it is recognized as such) and with that rise came a flooding tide of confidence that spurred the economy. During 2007 – 2011 just the opposite was true. With falling sales and falling prices confidence waned and everything from construction to appliance purchases suffered.

The economists surveyed also forecast that there will be just under 1 million housing starts this year — roughly matching the 28% rise in home building in 2012. Moody’s Analytics is forecasting much stronger growth — a 50% rise both this year and next year, which it estimates will create more than 1 million new jobs.

“There’s a lot of pent-up demand for housing, and very little supply,” said Celia Chen, housing economist for Moody’s Analytics. “As demand continues to improve, home builders have nothing to sell. They’ll have to build.” She said that growth in building will mean adding not just construction jobs, but also manufacturing jobs building the appliances and furniture needed in the new homes, which in turn drives overall consumption higher.

2012 Home Sales: Best In Five Years  – CNN Money – January 22, 2012

Home sales in Boulder County were up 23% during 2012. For us this was the most sales since 2007. Nationally sales increased by 9% last year and were the best (in terms of number of sales) since 2007.  Here are a few excerpts from the article.

Sales are being helped by a combination of strong market fundamentals — near record low mortgage rates, lower unemployment and a rebound in home prices, all of which are bringing in buyers into the market who had been waiting for it to hit bottom. The mortgage rates and years of depressed home prices have also combined to create the most affordable housing market on record, according to the Realtors group.

And the Realtors are predicting strong sales should continue into 2013 and beyond. It has a forecast for 5.1 million existing home sales this year, and 5.4 million next year.

The “Realtors Group” refers to the National Association of Realtors.

The improved demand for homes in December led to the inventory of homes for sale to fall to 1.82 million homes on the market, the lowest supply since January 2001. One factor in tightening supplies is a drop in foreclosures and other distressed home sales, which made up only 24% of home sales in December compared to 32% a year ago. The tighter supply, and the drop in distressed sales, have helped to lift home prices so that the median sales price for the year rose to $176,600, up 6.3% from 2011. That’s the biggest gain in prices in since the bubble year of 2005.

It’s good to see that I’m not the only one expecting a strong year this year. As I predicted last year, we were one of the first markets to recover and our recovery was stronger than most.

Guide to Boulder Neighborhoods

Guide to Boulder Neighborhoods

Interested in learning about the different neighborhoods in Boulder? In this report I have split Boulder into eleven different areas and present the lifestyle highlights, schools, shopping districts, local recreation and real estate statistics for each area. If you’re interested in learning about where to live in the City of Boulder this is your guide. Click Here to view and download the guide.

The Kearney Report – 3rd Quarter 2012

The Kearney Report – 3rd Quarter 2012

The Kearney Report is the comprehensive guide to real estate in Boulder County.  The report gives a detailed statistical view of the real estate market in Boulder County.  The report includes detailed statistics on the county as a whole, The City of Boulder, Louisville, Lafayette, Erie,and Superior (as a group), Gunbarrel and Longmont.  Please click here to view or download the report.

This report has more detailed analysis than any other report I have created to date.  In the report you will find information on: price appreciation, total sales, number of sales by type (single family or attached) for each area, a breakdown of the percentage of sales in each sub area, percentage of sales by price range for each area, and five year price trends for average and median price.  Along with the graphs I have written a commentary highlighting each category.  It is fifteen pages in all.  If you are interested in a comprehensive look at real estate in Boulder County, this is it.  Here are a few graphs from the report.