The fall real estate market seems to be slowing down more than expected rather than gaining momentum for 2019. Sales were down over 9% in November and are down 3.5% for the year. The signs that point me to a larger slowdown (not just seasonal) are; increasing inventory, lowest under contract percentage in five years and more obviously slower recent sales.
This graph shows the sales in Boulder County by month.The red line shows the under contract percentage which is at it’s lowest point in at least five years.
We will need to wait until January and February to see if a real shift has occurred in the market. This is when we start to see new buyers come out and deplete the existing inventory. Stay tuned and Happy Holidays!
The embedded report below has more analysis and graphs.
For more information and details of this listing please go to www.539Baker.com
A decade ago this small charming Old Town bungalow went through a major addition and remodel. When you drive up to the home you will still see the cute historic entrance and facade but you will be pleasantly surprised as you discover the beautiful and modern country kitchen, the large “great room” with windows on all sides and a bookcase wall and an upper level master bedroom. With the unfinished space in the basement (great for future expansion) the total square footage of the house comes to 2,709. 2,087 of which is finished.
The backyard is oversized and can be enjoyed from the deck or from under the pergola. You will find that vibrant Main Street is just a short walk and that this particular street in the Historic East End Neighborhood is especially wide.
The real estate market in Boulder County continued to be strong and steady. Technically, it is still a seller’s market, but currently we are seeing some momentum towards a balanced market in some price ranges. Low inventory continues to be a key factor in the market; giving fewer choices to buyers and helping fuel continued appreciation for sellers. Sales during the quarter were down 3% compared to the same quarter last year. This is in-line with the year-to-date numbers which also show a 3% drop from a year ago. Median prices continue their upward climb with prices approximately 9% higher than they were a year ago.
The Kearney Report analyzes the market on a county wide basis as well as smaller segments including, City of Boulder, East County (Erie, Lafayette, Louisville, Superior) and Longmont. With 15%, Longmont has seen the most appreciation over the past year. As you look through the report, keep your eye out for the bar graph that shows “Sales by Price Range” for each community. The inclusion of 2011 as a comparative year in this graph gives a strong visual representation of how the sub $250,000 market has all but disappeared. Most startling is in Longmont, where in 2011 69% of the sales were for $250,000 or less. This year just 2% sold in this price range! Many families are being priced out of the market. Especially as interest rates rise.
Speaking of rising interest rates, according to FreddieMac, the average 30 year mortgage rate in January was just above 4%. After a recent bump in early October, buyers are now seeing 5% and above for the first time in more than half a decade. Consumer confidence is at a 20 year high but home affordability is dropping. It will be interesting to see if buyer demand will be resilient in the face of higher interest rates.
How the market is performing has much to do with location and price range. Homes that are priced below the median in each of our sub-markets are still moving quickly. The higher priced homes and especially the luxury market are experiencing slower demand. Currently, in the City of Boulder, homes listed over $2 million have 9.5 months of inventory on the market and those under $1 million have 3.1 months of inventory.
The most recent statistics confirm my feel that the market is slowing. Certainly, some of that is seasonal, but in a few ways it feels different than the past few years. Inventory is rising just a bit, the percentage of homes that are under contract has fallen to a four year low (37%), and fewer homes are going under contract on a weekly basis over the past two months. That said, I’m still taking calls all the time from people who want to move to Boulder and are determined to make it happen. Any shift we are seeing in the market is slight, and only time will tell.
Here are a few sample pages from this quarter’s report:
I love what I do because I get to interact in a meaningful way with some fantastic people! Here are a few testimonials that have come in from clients that I have had the privilege to work with over the past few months.
“Neil’s wealth of knowledge, combined with his relaxed, no-pressure manner, make for a more-than-winning combination. He is completely familiar not only with the benefits and drawbacks of different geographical areas, but he also knows about houses from the inside out! He can explain electrical and plumbing issues; materials; grades and everything else. Neil is a keen observer, often pointing out things we missed. He went above and beyond by creating a special spreadsheet for us when we were stuck on a pricing issue. You never have to wait for a response from Neil either, so important during any real estate experience. Buying or selling a house can be a trying time, but we loved working with Neil, and highly recommend his services.” Suzanne Dingwell
“Our family is so grateful to have had Neil help us sell our home. He went above and beyond what one would expect from a real estate agent. His professional approach in nailing everything down from market trends in our area to providing helpful suggestions to set up our home for sale was one of a kind. Neil was always available to answer questions, ease our minds and even lending a hand with sale preparation tasks. He always welcomed our input and and made things very clear and understandable. We can truly say that Neil became like family. Again, his professionalism and amazing knowledge of real estate markets topped off with his genuinely kind and caring approach cannot be beat. We could not have made it through any of this process without Neil. Our family will only recommend his agency and will never consider anyone else in the future when the time comes around for us to buy or sell any property. Neil is not only a wonderful person, but also the best agent in Boulder and the surrounding area. THANK YOU NEIL!!” The Kosenski Family
“We would highly recommend Neil Kearney and would not hesitate to use him again. We have worked with Kearney Realty for over 20 years and received incredible service in four real estate transactions over the years. Neil recently worked with us for several months and was very patient until we found our perfect home. He was very knowledgeable and a strong advocate when we were ready to buy, and he was not afraid to point out potential problems or assets with homes when we were looking.” Bill and Connie Barclay
“I can not recommend Neil highly enough! I have dealt with many agents over the years, and working with Neil was an A+ experience. He answered all my dumb questions, and he answered immediately, at all times of day or night. He took care of innumerable details, and went above & beyond, even weeding the property to make it show better! I would not hesitate to recommend him 100%, and I would definitely employ him again. Especially if you have had a bad prior experience with a real estate agent—give Neil a try. His integrity is unimpeachable.” Marsha Conway
This month we are seeing a few statistics break from the pattern we have seen during the past four plus years. Sales were down by 3.4% for the month but that isn’t the story. Actually year-to-date sales are just down 2.4%. This month for the first time we saw the percentage of under contract properties (compared to all listed properties) fall to 37% which is the lowest number we have seen in over 4 years. What this means is that listed homes are staying on the market longer, fewer are selling and buyers have more choice.
This isn’t a big change but a continuation of a trend that we have been seeing since this statistic peaked in April of this year with over 50% of the market already under contract. Another statistic that shows that our market might be slowing is the number of properties that go under contract in Boulder County on a weekly basis. Over the past twelve weeks the weekly contracts have noticeably lagged the previous years shown. Take these in conjunction with a bump in inventory and it points to a slower market.
