Boulder County Real Estate Market Report
Click link below to view and download the PDF:
The real estate market in Boulder County continued to be strong and steady. Technically, it is still a seller’s market, but currently we are seeing some momentum towards a balanced market in some price ranges. Low inventory continues to be a key factor in the market; giving fewer choices to buyers and helping fuel continued appreciation for sellers. Sales during the quarter were down 3% compared to the same quarter last year. This is in-line with the year-to-date numbers which also show a 3% drop from a year ago. Median prices continue their upward climb with prices approximately 9% higher than they were a year ago.
The Kearney Report analyzes the market on a county wide basis as well as smaller segments including, City of Boulder, East County (Erie, Lafayette, Louisville, Superior) and Longmont. With 15%, Longmont has seen the most appreciation over the past year. As you look through the report, keep your eye out for the bar graph that shows “Sales by Price Range” for each community. The inclusion of 2011 as a comparative year in this graph gives a strong visual representation of how the sub $250,000 market has all but disappeared. Most startling is in Longmont, where in 2011 69% of the sales were for $250,000 or less. This year just 2% sold in this price range! Many families are being priced out of the market. Especially as interest rates rise.
Speaking of rising interest rates, according to FreddieMac, the average 30 year mortgage rate in January was just above 4%. After a recent bump in early October, buyers are now seeing 5% and above for the first time in more than half a decade. Consumer confidence is at a 20 year high but home affordability is dropping. It will be interesting to see if buyer demand will be resilient in the face of higher interest rates.
How the market is performing has much to do with location and price range. Homes that are priced below the median in each of our sub-markets are still moving quickly. The higher priced homes and especially the luxury market are experiencing slower demand. Currently, in the City of Boulder, homes listed over $2 million have 9.5 months of inventory on the market and those under $1 million have 3.1 months of inventory.
The most recent statistics confirm my feel that the market is slowing. Certainly, some of that is seasonal, but in a few ways it feels different than the past few years. Inventory is rising just a bit, the percentage of homes that are under contract has fallen to a four year low (37%), and fewer homes are going under contract on a weekly basis over the past two months. That said, I’m still taking calls all the time from people who want to move to Boulder and are determined to make it happen. Any shift we are seeing in the market is slight, and only time will tell.
Here are a few sample pages from this quarter’s report:
