by neil kearney | May 1, 2007 | Boulder County Housing Trends
-Market Shows Signs of Strength –
The number of homes under contract May 1st is up 63% from 1 month ago! The number of single family homes in Boulder County that are under contract increased from 349 a month ago to 569 today. I am tracking the ratio of active listings to those that have a contract on them and on March 1st the ratio was 19%, on April 1st it was 20% and on May 1st it is 30%. I will be able to check the final sales figures for April in a few days after all sales are recorded in the MLS. The signs seem to be positive. Stay tuned…
by neil kearney | Apr 6, 2007 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
WHAT IS HOT AND WHAT IS NOT The talk around the water cooler is that the market is spotty. Movin' along in some areas and 
slow as molasses in others. However, it is hard to say what areas are hot and which are cold without some hard facts. Today I'd like to present just that, some facts about the market which compare the relative strength of some market areas. Here are the results:
Single Family Homes
Boulder 21%
Louisville 35%
Longmont 12%
Lafayette 17%
Boulder County 17%
Weld County 10%
Attached Dwellings
Boulder 26%
Louisville 11%
Longmont 9%
Lafayette 16%
Boulder County 19%
Weld County 8%
To accomplish this I compared the number of houses under contract (accepting backups, pending and first right of refusal contracts) to the total number of active listings in a particular market.
I have highlighted the top performing (green) and worst performing (red) area in each category. For single family homes, Louisville has 35% of active homes under contract. Louisville has consistently outperformed the rest of the county over the past few years. I think this has to do with a combination of no new construction and a median price below $300,000, all within 8 miles of Boulder. The slowest markets seem to be Weld County and Longmont with a 10% and 12% ratio respectively.
Attached dwellings show the City of Boulder as the hottest market while Weld County and Longmont again bring up the rear.
Market activity is picking up but it is still a competitive buyers market out there. Homes need to be priced well and show well in order to attract buyers.
by neil kearney | Mar 14, 2007 | Boulder County Housing Trends
What The Sub-Prime Fallout Means To Us
The sub-prime mortgage industry is hurting. These are the lenders who specialize in giving mortgages to high risk, low credit borrowers. Let’s face 
it, almost everyone has been able to get a mortgage the past few years. Well anyway, foreclosures are up and these lenders are left with the defaults in a stagnant market. Many of these companies are going out of business and the fallout has sent the stock market reeling for the second time in recent weeks. The website The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter tracks the companies who have gone out of the business since late 2006. As of today it is 36 and counting. The fear on Wall Street is that credit will tighten and foreclousres will continue to rise, just as the economy and the housing market weaken even more.
What does this mean for our market? Credit is tightening and this strongly affects the entry level market. Many people who have marginal credit have been able to buy those entry level homes that keep being built. When these potential buyers are not able to buy they will be forced to rent and the pool of buyers for lower priced homes gets smaller. As the pool of buyers gets smaller there will be more foreclosures etc. This cycle will be a possibility in all markets but the hardest hit in our area will be Southwestern Weld County, Eastern Boulder County and the low priced attached dwellings in town. Higher priced areas such as Boulder will not be affected very much because most Boulder buyers are not credit challenged. If buyers are affected in the higher markets it will most likely cause them to buy a smaller house not keep them out of the market altogether.
Another long term result of tightening credit will be the a strengthening of the rental market. I think there are going to be some great investment opportunities in the coming months. Being a contrarian is when you make money. When everyone else is down on the market is when you buy. Stay tuned for more developments.
by neil kearney | Mar 5, 2007 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
National and Local 4th Quarter 2006 House Appreciation Data
Boulder/Longmont ranks 223 in appreciation
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) released 4th quarter 2006 data last week. Nationally, home prices are 5.9% higher than last year and show a 1.1% increase for the quarter. OFHEO uses data compiled from conventional loans (new purchases and refinances less than $418,000) to compare same house sales over time. I think the statistics are fairly sound but I have one knock with them. In many markets including Boulder, there is a large percentage of homes that sell without using conventional financing. Most of these homes are in higher price ranges and these statistics do not include this sales data. That said, on with the data…
The Boulder/Longmont MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) showed a 1 year increase of 1.68% and an increase of .14% for the 4th quarter. The annual appreciation rates us 223rd nationally out of 282 MSA’s. Six months ago we were ranked 218th with an annual appreciation of 3.55 and a quarterly appreciation of 2.6%, obviously the market has slowed since last spring. Hopefully, we will see a jump in the next few months. Colorado is ranked 43rd with a 3.32% annual appreciation rate, but the quarterly rate of .87% ranks 33 nationally. The appreciation rate has decelerated nationally.
The states with the greatest rates of appreciation between 4th quarter 2005 and 4th quarter 2006 were: Utah (17.6%), Wyoming (14.3%), Idaho (14%), Washington (13.7%), and Oregon (13.5%). The states with the lowest appreciation for the same period were: Michigan (-.4%), Massachusetts (.5%), Ohio (1%), Indiana (2.3%), and Minnesota (2.5%).
Some other interesting statistics:
- California saw quarterly appreciation rates that were negative in 21 of the 26 ranked cities on OFHEO’s list.
- Prices in areas affected by Hurricane Katrina showed double digit growth, caused by lack of housing supply.
- Annual rates of appreciation slowed in all nine census division (Pacific, Mountain etc.) relative to the third quarter.
For more data and information please go directly to http://www.ofheo.gov/
by neil kearney | Feb 12, 2007 | Boulder County Housing Trends
I mentioned a week or two ago the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC). MGIC is a company that provides mortgage insurance in case of borrower default. It is their business
to know the risks in the nations real estate markets. On their website they have a detailed analysis of the 72 largest metropolitan areas. Today, I’m going to compare three market areas Denver, Detroit and Seattle. Denver is rated as a stable market with no change on the horizon, Detroit is rated as a soft market with weakening in the future and Seattle is rated a strong market with no change in the near future.
I will go through the main areas of the report in order:
Income Trend
- Denver – Personal income growth up 7%; Wage and Salary Growth up 8%.
- Detroit – Personal income growth up 3.75%; Wage and Salary Growth up 3%.
- Seattle – Personal income growth up 9.8%; Wage and Salary Growth up 10.25%.
Employment
- Denver – Unemployment Rate 4.7%, Employment Growth Rate 5.7%.
- Detroit – Unemployement Rate 8.75%; Employment Growth Rate -1.25%.
- Seattle – Unemployement Rate 4%; Employment Growth Rate 6.8%.
Housing Affordibility – A measure of how incomes, median price and mortgage rates interact. The lower the number the more affordable the market is to the most people.
- Denver – 123 and trending down (good).
- Detroit – 205 and trending up (poor).
- Seattle – 78 and trending down (good).
Home Appreciation as measured by OFHEO
- Denver – 2.8% per year and declining – median price of $249,167
- Detroit – -1% and declining – median price of $105,940
- Seattle – 17.5% and stabilizing – median price of $398,244
Single Family Permits vs. Household Growth a measure of population growth.
- Denver – Household Growth 1.5%, Single Family Permits 14,700 and declining.
- Detroit – Household Growth -.25%, Single Family Permits 2,200 and declining.
- Seattle – Household Growth 1.25%, Single Family Permits 10,500 and stable.
Overall, you can see the factors that go into the health of a real estate market. This can be replicated for any of the 72 largest metropolitan areas and is one good tool to identify possible investment areas. After looking at Detroit and other depressed areas in the Midwest I am grateful for the market we do have in Boulder and Denver Colorado.
by neil kearney | Feb 7, 2007 | Boulder County Housing Trends
During January 2007 there were 181 closed sales of single family homes in Boulder County. This is down 7 units from last year and down 23 units from 2005. The median price for the same criteria was $370,000; an increase of $5,000 from a year ago and an increase of $21,000 over those transactions closing in December 2006. Currently there are 350 homes on the market that are under contract. This represents 16.5% of the total inventory.
On average it took 86 for the houses that closed in January to find a buyer. Compare this to 94 days to offer for homes that closed in December. Let’s hope this trend continues. To me it seems like showings are up and there is more activity in the market!
