by neil kearney | Sep 19, 2007 | Boulder County Housing Trends
“The Hotsheet”
Every morning I look at a market “Hotsheet”. My hotsheet shows me all of the changes in the MLS system that have happened since the last hotsheet
in my market area. I look at all of the new listings, peruse the price reductions, check out what houses have gone under contract and check final sales prices. It keeps me on top of the market on a daily basis. The hotsheet takes on a different personality under different market conditions. In a Sellers market you will see a good number of new listings, not many price reductions, lots of houses going under contract, houses selling for close to their listing prices and very few withdrawn or expired listings. This is not how my hotsheets have looked lately.
During a slower market you will see a fewer new listings, tons of price reductions, a moderate number of homes under contract, sales prices under the list price and many homes withdrawn or expired.
I just compiled the data for the past month for all residential listings in Boulder, Louisville, Lafayette and Longmont. I found that there are more houses either being withdrawn or expired than there are selling. Many sellers who are not totally committed to selling their homes (overpriced) are giving up after awhile. What led me on this journey in the first place is the large number of price reductions on a daily basis. Over the past month there have been more price reductions than new homes on the market.
The market continues to be difficult for sellers who are not totally realistic about the market conditions. Buyers are picky and savvy as to prices. In order to be the one to sell you must be outstanding in price, condition and staging.
by neil kearney | Sep 13, 2007 | Boulder County Housing Trends
The Hidden Strength in Our Market
Boulder seems to be insulated from many of the road bumps in the overall real estate market. People can argue that our steady strength is due to the greenbelt and open space that limits the
buildable acreage. Others claim that it is due to the University and the stability of good government science jobs. Yet, others may argue that it is due to the high tech jobs in the area. I think all of these reasons are good and true. But, the main reason that I think that Boulder has had a good real estate market over the years is the overall lifestyle.
There is a good chunk of our population that could live anywhere and have chosen to live in Boulder. Just today I met someone who recently moved from Washington D.C. As our conversation continued I found out that he was recently retired from a 25 year career with ABC News as their National Security Specialist. After traveling so much for his job he left it to his wife to pick the town to retire in. She chose Boulder and he couldn’t be happier. But who wouldn’t be happy not having to report from Baghdad any longer?
My point is that we are blessed to live in such a beautiful area. We have so many activities to choose from and fantastic weather in which to enjoy anything we choose to do. If you would like to come share it with us please give me a call. I’d love to help you find your little corner of Colorado paradise.
by neil kearney | Aug 30, 2007 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
National Appreciation at 13 year low
Boulder Appreciation Improves
The Housing Price Index (HPI) for the second quarter of 2007 was released today by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). The report shows a meager .1% increase in home prices nationwide between the 1st quarter and 2nd quarter. This is the lowest quarterly increase since 4th quarter 1994. The yearly appreciation was just 3.2%, the lowest increase since 1996-1997.
The report says that “House prices were basically flat in the second quarter despite tightening credit policies, rising foreclosure rates, and weakening buyer sentiment,” said Lockhart. “Significant price declines appear localized in areas with weak economies or where price increases were particularly dramatic during the housing boom.”
The states that have been most affected by price depreciation are: Nevada (-1.5%), Michigan (-1.4%), California (-1.4%), Massachusetts (-1.0%), and Rhode Island (-1.0%). The states that are still seeing good appreciation are: Utah (15.3%), Wyoming (12.8%), Washington (9.1%), Montana (9.1%), and New Mexico (8.8%). Colorado is ranked 37th (up from 38th in q1) nationally with an annual appreciation rate of 2.95%.
Locally our very own MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) Boulder/Longmont is ranked 185th out of 272 with 2.25% appreciation for the year. Comparatively, this is a great gain for us. During the 1st quarter of this year we were ranked 210th with a yearly appreciation of 1.55%.
Things get even better when you look at the most recent quarter alone. Colorado had an appreciation rate of .65% which was 24th highest and Boulder/Longmont had an appreciation rate of 1.66% for the quarter which was ranked us 46th nationally. It looks like we are holding steady while the rest of the field is falling back a bit.
The unfortunate news is that other parts of the country are suffering. In a separate post I will detail the overall picture in more detail.
The entire report can be viewed at http://www.ofheo.gov/HPI.asp
by neil kearney | Aug 27, 2007 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Market Strength
Again I opened the local paper to find the top story in the Business section about the “Mortgage Mess” and how it is affecting real estate and the foreclosure market. The article, which can be found at
http://www.dailycamera.com/news/business/ went on to say that the local market was not affected as severely as other parts of the country. So, how are we doing? Here are a few market stats that may clear it up a bit.
Percentage of Active listings under contract:
In order to have a healthy market you need active buyers. It is healthy to have plenty of listings on the market but without buyers you have a big problem. In order to gauge the number of active buyers in the market I look at a few statistics. One is the number of showings. Better is the number of listings that are currently on the market. The chart below shows the percentage of homes on market that are currently under contract. I have done this search three times in recent months and show all for comparison.
On average there are fewer homes under contract now than there were in both May and June. Louisville and Boulder have the highest percentage of homes under contract and Weld County and Longmont have the slowest market.
For condos and townhomes (attached dwellings) the story is much the same but the gross percentages are higher. A greater percentage of condos are under contract than homes. Boulder is the strongest market for condos in our area.
Current Inventory:
How long is it going to take to sell my home? This is the $64,000 (before inflation) question. The worst case scenario is to look at it like this; how long would it take to sell all of the homes on the market. If you were the least desirable home in the category yours would go last. This next chart shows how long it would take for that “last” home to sell if no other homes were to come on the market. Again in many areas condos are doing a bit better than their single family home counterparts. Still on average it would take about 8 months to sell all of the inventory in Boulder County given the current sales pace. The areas with the least amount of inventory are Superior homes and Louisville condos. The areas with the largest inventory are mountain homes and Longmont condos.
Can you tell by the color of my graphs that it is almost football season?
by neil kearney | Aug 17, 2007 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics, Uncategorized
Showings Down in August and the Mortgage Fiasco
The news about the real estate market has not been good these past few weeks. Every time you read a paper, turn on your computer or watch TV news you will hear about the sub-prime mortgage crisis and how that is affecting an already depressed housing market. The number of sales are down about 11% in our local market. Showings have been fairly strong all summer but the latest two week period was down 18% from the last two weeks in July. has been down this year in the number. Here is a chart showing the trend.
Now on to the mortgage situation. For a number of months it has become clear that the easy mortgage standards that have been fueling the market over the past few years were resulting in a large number of foreclosures (bad loans). As the losses added up, the loans became harder to sell on the secondary market. When the mortgage companies are unable to sell their mortgages they don’t have money to lend to new borrowers. When there is limited money available, only the best borrowers get the money. Jumbo mortgages (loans over $417,000) are now priced higher than conventional loans. Second mortgages, which are used when the borrower doesn’t have a 20% down payment, are now hard to get. It is going to be very interesting how this all plays out. Sales and closings are still happening daily, the world goes on we just have to adapt to a tighter market.
by neil kearney | May 17, 2007 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Hot Local Markets Revealed
I have seen a big surge in activity in the market the past few weeks. We have seen multiple offer situations on many homes and May is living up to 
its billing as the busiest month for sales. One tool I use to gauge the relative strength of markets is the Active to Under Contract Ratio. This simply measures how many homes are under contract in any market and compares that as a percentage to the total of listings available. A low percentage would indicate ample supply and low appreciation potential in the short term and conversely a high percentage would indicate a higher demand and possible upside appreciation in the short term. I have listed below the under contract percentage for the local areas for both single family attached and condos and townhomes. But first a summary; The three hottest markets for detached homes are in order: Louisville (36.5%), Boulder (29.6%) and Superior (28.4%). The softest markets for detached homes are: Weld County as a whole (9.46%) and Erie (10.9%). The hottest markets for condos are: Louisville (30.6%) and Boulder (26.4%). There are two markets that are very slow in the sale of condos; Erie has 38 active listings and only 1 under contract and Superior has 33 active listings and only 1 under contract.
Here is the data:
Single Family/Detached Homes
- Louisville – 36.5%
- City of Boulder – 29.6%
- Superior – 28.4%
- Lafayette – 23%
- Boulder County – 19.6%
- Longmont – 14.7%
- Suburban Plains – 14.7%
- Suburban Mountains – 11.2%
- Erie – 10.9%
- Weld County – 9.46%
Condos and Townhomes
- Louisville – 30.6%
- City of Boulder – 26.4%
- Boulder County – 20.4%
- Lafayette – 18.1%
- Suburban Plains – 17.3%
- Longmont – 10.3%
- Weld County – 9.8%
- Superior – 3%
- Erie – 2.6%
in my market area. I look at all of the new listings, peruse the price reductions, check out what houses have gone under contract and check final sales prices. It keeps me on top of the market on a daily basis. The hotsheet takes on a different personality under different market conditions. In a Sellers market you will see a good number of new listings, not many price reductions, lots of houses going under contract, houses selling for close to their listing prices and very few withdrawn or expired listings. This is not how my hotsheets have looked lately.
