by Neil Kearney | Jan 9, 2012 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
The year ended more slowly than I thought it would. December sales for all types of real estate were down 9% for the month. This pulled the year end total 4% behind 2010.
Sales of single family homes were down 13% for the month. Looking back, the only other December in recent history that had sales under 200 units was 2008. As I recall the later months of 2008 the optimism was not high. However, I am excited for the possibilities of 2012. I expect to have a great year selling real estate. Interest rates continue to be favorable and the overall economy is gaining traction. Locally, business seem to be doing well and people keep moving to town. If you are considering a move to the Boulder area I would love to show you why buying real estate in this area is a great investment.
Here are the charts showing the monthly sales activity for Boulder County. Also, included are weekly trends of homes going under contract, total inventory trends and percentage of homes under contract on a monthly basis. For all of your real estate needs call me, I’d love to help.
by Neil Kearney | Dec 1, 2011 | Boulder County Housing Trends, For Buyers, Statistics
Yesterday, I shared with you how different price ranges are currently selling in the Boulder County home market. Today we are going 
to look at the same indicators but today, we will use the data to find out which town has the strongest real estate market.
Under Contract Percentage:
This is simply the number of homes currently under contract divided by the number of homes on the market. The higher the number the stronger the market. The areas that have the highest percentage of homes under contract (Louisville and Superior) also happen to have the fewest homes on the market. Few homes on the market, steady demand = strong market.
- Boulder 14%
- Louisville 24%
- Lafayette 22%
- Longmont 20%
- Superior 25%
- Mountains 14%
- Plains 13%
Absorption Rate:
Absorption rate compares the number of homes that sell during an average month (I use 12 months) to the number of homes currently on the market. For example if on average 10 homes sell per month and there are 120 homes on the market, the absorption rate would be 12 months. Another way of saying it would be, that it would take 1 year to sell all of the current inventory. A low number shows quick turnover and a strong market. During the late fall and winter when many would-be sellers remove their homes from the market the absorption rates are unusually low. Again, Superior and Louisville show the healthiest market and the mountains show the weakest market.
- Boulder 6.9 months
- Louisville 4.3 months
- Lafayette 5.9 months
- Longmont 6.1 months
- Superior 4.2 months
- Mountains 12.4 months
- Plains 9.2 months
Average Negotiation Off Of List Price:
The areas that showed the strongest indicators in the statistics above also had the smallest average negotiation off of the list price.
- Boulder 4.74%
- Louisville 2.63%
- Lafayette 2.65%
- Longmont 2.95%
- Superior 2.84%
- Mountains 6.28%
- Plains 4.78%
Overall Ranking of Strength of Market:
When you average out these results and rank for total strength, here are the strongest real estate markets in Boulder County right now.
1. Louisville and Superior (tie)
2. Lafayette
3. Longmont
4. Boulder
5. Suburban Mountains and Suburban Plains (tie)
Of course more goes into it than just these three statistics. So when you are ready to buy or sell real estate in Boulder County call a professional real estate agent like me. Neil Kearney 303.818.4055
by Neil Kearney | Nov 30, 2011 | Boulder County Housing Trends, For Buyers, For Sellers, Statistics
Right now the broad trends in the Boulder area real estate market are:
- Sales at a consistent although not spectacular rate. (Down roughly 5% from last year)
- Inventory decreasing (normal for this time of year)
- Prices are fairly stable but with a nudge toward the negative.
- Buyers market with the average negotiation in Boulder County over the last 12 months at 4.17% off of last list price.
Today, I am going to break the market down into smaller silo’s so that you can get a better idea of the market across the different price ranges. Tomorrow, I will do the same thing but instead of using prices I will use areas. Here it goes.
Under Contract Percentage:
This is simply the number of homes currently under contract divided by the number of homes on the market. The higher the number the stronger the market. Not surprisingly, the lower price ranges have quite a bit more activity than the higher price ranges. Usually, there is more stratification between the $750,000 range and the homes listed above $1,500,000 but right now that is not the case. There are currently 18 homes under contract that are listed above $1,000,000 in Boulder County.
- $0 – $250k 20%
- $250k – $500k 20%
- $500k – $750k 14%
- $750k – $1MM 7%
- $1MM – 1.5MM 7%
- >$1.5MM 7%
Absorption Rate:
Absorption rate compares the number of homes that sell during an average month (I use 12 months) to the number of homes currently on the market. For example if on average 10 homes sell per month and there are 120 homes on the market, the absorption rate would be 12 months. Another way of saying it would be, that it would take 1 year to sell all of the current inventory. A low number shows quick turnover and a strong market. During the late fall and winter when many would-be sellers remove their homes from the market the absorption rates are unusually low. Even so, by this measure in would take 31 months to clear all of the homes on the market in Boulder County that are listed above $1.5 million.
- $0 – $250k 5.3 months
- $250k – $500k 6.2 months
- $500k – $750k 8.6 months
- $750k – $1MM 13.6 months
- $1MM – 1.5MM 15.4 months
- >$1.5MM 31 months
Average Negotiation Off Of List Price:
It is very interesting to see how much negotiation is going on between buyers and sellers. A good rule of thumb over all of the years I have been selling homes in the Boulder area has been 3% off of list price. For the last year, the average has jumped to 4.17% over all price ranges and areas in Boulder County. From the figures below you can see that properties under $500,000 are still in the historical 3% range. Where we are seeing more negotiation is in the upper price ranges. You can relate the motivation of the seller to the previous table (absorption rate) and see that many sellers are valuing the opportunity to sell and are willing to stray off of their list price to get it done.
- $0 – $250k 3.13%
- $250k – $500k 3.08%
- $500k – $750k 3.87%
- $750k – $1MM 5.21%
- $1MM – 1.5MM 5.91%
- >$1.5MM 9.72%
by Neil Kearney | Nov 9, 2011 | Statistics
October was a good month for the Boulder County real estate market. Sales were up 16% from October of 2010. We are now down just 5% year-to-date in overall sales. The percentage of listed homes that were under contract at the end of the month was a strong 20%.
It happens every year. Sellers are taking their homes off of the market for the winter. It’s true that sales are usually at their lowest during December and January but for those serious about buying or selling these months can be very productive. Not so many casual lookers, only serious buyers are out looking. For sellers, list your home at a good price and you can be a big fish in a small pond. The number of active listings decreased by 16% during the month.
Please click on the slideshow below to see the real estate market trends graphically. We are breaking away from our usual bell curve shape.
by Neil Kearney | Sep 21, 2011 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Yesterday I showed the state of the market by looking at under contract percentages. Today, let’s look at absorption rate. Absorption rate relates current inventory to sales turn rate and comes up with how many months it would take to sell the current inventory given the historical sales rate. The lower the number, the more the inventory is turning. A high number denotes a buyers market and a low number denotes a sellers market.
Inventory by Area - Boulder County
The absorption rate in Boulder County ranges from around 5 months to over 25 months in the mountains. This means that if no new listings were to go on the market, it would take two years to sell all of the homes currently on the market in the mountains.
Absorption Rate by Price Range
Looking at absorption rate by price range is even more revealing. for the lowest priced properties the absorption rate is 7 months for homes listed above $1.5 million it would take over three years to clear the inventory. A normal balanced market is 6 months or less.
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