Right now the broad trends in the Boulder area real estate market are:
- Sales at a consistent although not spectacular rate. (Down roughly 5% from last year)
- Inventory decreasing (normal for this time of year)
- Prices are fairly stable but with a nudge toward the negative.
- Buyers market with the average negotiation in Boulder County over the last 12 months at 4.17% off of last list price.
Today, I am going to break the market down into smaller silo’s so that you can get a better idea of the market across the different price ranges. Tomorrow, I will do the same thing but instead of using prices I will use areas. Here it goes.
Under Contract Percentage:
This is simply the number of homes currently under contract divided by the number of homes on the market. The higher the number the stronger the market. Not surprisingly, the lower price ranges have quite a bit more activity than the higher price ranges. Usually, there is more stratification between the $750,000 range and the homes listed above $1,500,000 but right now that is not the case. There are currently 18 homes under contract that are listed above $1,000,000 in Boulder County.
- $0 – $250k 20%
- $250k – $500k 20%
- $500k – $750k 14%
- $750k – $1MM 7%
- $1MM – 1.5MM 7%
- >$1.5MM 7%
Absorption Rate:
Absorption rate compares the number of homes that sell during an average month (I use 12 months) to the number of homes currently on the market. For example if on average 10 homes sell per month and there are 120 homes on the market, the absorption rate would be 12 months. Another way of saying it would be, that it would take 1 year to sell all of the current inventory. A low number shows quick turnover and a strong market. During the late fall and winter when many would-be sellers remove their homes from the market the absorption rates are unusually low. Even so, by this measure in would take 31 months to clear all of the homes on the market in Boulder County that are listed above $1.5 million.
- $0 – $250k 5.3 months
- $250k – $500k 6.2 months
- $500k – $750k 8.6 months
- $750k – $1MM 13.6 months
- $1MM – 1.5MM 15.4 months
- >$1.5MM 31 months
Average Negotiation Off Of List Price:
It is very interesting to see how much negotiation is going on between buyers and sellers. A good rule of thumb over all of the years I have been selling homes in the Boulder area has been 3% off of list price. For the last year, the average has jumped to 4.17% over all price ranges and areas in Boulder County. From the figures below you can see that properties under $500,000 are still in the historical 3% range. Where we are seeing more negotiation is in the upper price ranges. You can relate the motivation of the seller to the previous table (absorption rate) and see that many sellers are valuing the opportunity to sell and are willing to stray off of their list price to get it done.
- $0 – $250k 3.13%
- $250k – $500k 3.08%
- $500k – $750k 3.87%
- $750k – $1MM 5.21%
- $1MM – 1.5MM 5.91%
- >$1.5MM 9.72%
