I’m pleased to present The Kearney Report. This is a broad look at the greater Boulder real estate market over the past year. I write a lot about market statistics and trends but this report sums it all up and shows trends in the market over time. A full description is included in the report so I encourage you to read it below. I compile the information included in the report from market data mostly from the IRES MLS system. I have done my best to present a detailed and accurate report using good sources. Please contact me if you are contemplating a real estate transaction so that I can interpret these results and create a customized report for your home and your specific area.
The thing about statistics is that the only good data looks backward. Any forward looking statistic is just a prediction, a forecast, a guess. As I have written about recently, the real estate market in the Boulder area is full of buyers right now. Unfortunately for the buyers, there are not that many listings to choose from. As I write this nearly 1/3 of homes listed for sale already have been matched with a buyer. Real Estate is basically a complex supply and demand problem. Right now the supply isn’t enough to meet the demand. If that persists then the prices should increase.
Over the past few years the number of sales has declined. In other words, the number of ready, willing and able buyers has declined. As demand falls, all things being equal, prices should fall. Luckily for us, the supply of homes has declined as well lessening the effect on home prices. Over the past few years median prices have fallen in Boulder County. Not nearly as severe as most other areas but there has been a small correction.
One of the best data sources for home appreciation numbers is FHFA.gov. This governmental agency tracks home values across the country using conventional loan data. It then produces a report which ranks each area against the other 306 areas it tracks. According to FHFA, Boulder County homes over the past year (ending December 31, 2011) have lost .75% in value. Not even a 1% decline. This ranks 57th nationally. Top 20%. Not bad.
For the fourth quarter our appreciation was a positive .63%. This ranked 98th nationally. The good news here is that even as our appreciation improved it ranked worse. This means that there is a broad recovery happening around the United States.
Note1: Fort Collins/Loveland ranked 6th nationally with a 1.49% increase for the year.
Note 2: The five year combined appreciation for Boulder County is + 1.56%.
Chart 1: Comparison of Boulder County home appreciation to U.S. average.
Chart 2: National ranking of Boulder’s appreciation. (lower is better)
The Boulder County real estate market is humming along. But it seems we are running a bit lean in one cylinder. It takes both buyers and sellers to make a market and right now buyers are out in force but sellers are still in winter hibernation mode.
If you are thinking about selling your home in 2012 there may be no better time than right NOW. Currently in the City of Boulder 29% of all listings are under contract. In Louisville and Lafayette nearly 40% of listed homes have already found a buyer. These are really high numbers and not surprisingly there are multiple offers happening. Buyers are problably wondering what the heck is happening.
Homer: “Marge I thought this was a buyers market. Do you still think we can buy this house for a 40% discount?”
Marge: “I don’t know Homie, we have missed out on three homes already.”
Lisa: “Mom and Dad, wake up and get with the program or we will never buy a house.”
This situation doesn’t mean that the market is back. We still have some recovering to do and one big piece of the puzzle is for sellers to show confidence in the market by listing their homes.
The video below gives a complete update of the market throughout Boulder County.
2012 has started in many ways just like it has over the past two years. This year it seems that there is a lot of early activity in the market. In fact, at the end of January, 21.5% of all listings were under contract. This represents a 7% increase from the same time period a year ago. Closed sales during January were just about equal to last year. The number of homes that went under contract during the month were within a few properties as well.
So does this mean that we are primed to have a similar year in the Boulder real estate market? My prediction is that sales will increase this year. Not a huge jump but an increase nonetheless. There have been many people thinking about making a move and this year is a great year to take advantage of low interest rates while they last. If you have a home to sell, the good news is that there is activity in the market. The bad news is that buyers are as picky as ever and will only buy homes that are in good shape and are perceived as a good value.
This slideshow highlights 4 years of sales data and shows many of the long term trends we have been seeing in the Boulder County real estate market. I welcome your questions and comments.
I just finished my annual analysis of the real estate market in Boulder County. In addition to the overall sales trends, I look at the real estate market in Boulder, Louisville, Lafayette, Longmont, Erie, Superior, Suburban Plains and Suburban Mountains. The annotated slide show gives all of the detail for each of these areas.
Here are a few of the important points:
Total Sales across all categories in Boulder County fell by 2.6%.
Median Price across all categories in Boulder County fell 1.5%.
Sales in the City of Boulder were up slightly from last year.
Sales in Louisville were up 16% from last year.
Sales in Erie were up 23% over last year!
Longmont bounced back with 9% more sales in 2011 than in 2010.
FOR MUCH OF BOULDER COUNTY 2011 WAS A RECOVERY YEAR.
What does 2012 have in store? Here are a few of my ideas:
One of the challenges right now is to build the inventory of active listings. Buyers are wishing there was more to choose from.
Factors that point toward an improving market:
The local economy is improving.
Interest rates will continue to be favorable.
Lending guidelines are expected to loosen in the coming year.
Nationally, foreclosures need to move through the market in order to see overall improvement. Locally, foreclosures have not been a huge issue. This will help us to recover even more quickly.
