The thing about statistics is that the only good data looks backward. Any forward looking statistic is just a prediction, a forecast, a guess. As I have written about recently, the real estate market in the Boulder area is full of buyers right now. Unfortunately for the buyers, there are not that many listings to choose from. As I write this nearly 1/3 of homes listed for sale already have been matched with a buyer. Real Estate is basically a complex supply and demand problem. Right now the supply isn’t enough to meet the demand. If that persists then the prices should increase.
Over the past few years the number of sales has declined. In other words, the number of ready, willing and able buyers has declined. As demand falls, all things being equal, prices should fall. Luckily for us, the supply of homes has declined as well lessening the effect on home prices. Over the past few years median prices have fallen in Boulder County. Not nearly as severe as most other areas but there has been a small correction.
One of the best data sources for home appreciation numbers is FHFA.gov. This governmental agency tracks home values across the country using conventional loan data. It then produces a report which ranks each area against the other 306 areas it tracks. According to FHFA, Boulder County homes over the past year (ending December 31, 2011) have lost .75% in value. Not even a 1% decline. This ranks 57th nationally. Top 20%. Not bad.
For the fourth quarter our appreciation was a positive .63%. This ranked 98th nationally. The good news here is that even as our appreciation improved it ranked worse. This means that there is a broad recovery happening around the United States.
Note1: Fort Collins/Loveland ranked 6th nationally with a 1.49% increase for the year.
Note 2: The five year combined appreciation for Boulder County is + 1.56%.
Chart 1: Comparison of Boulder County home appreciation to U.S. average.
Chart 2: National ranking of Boulder’s appreciation. (lower is better)
Located 15 miles northeast of Boulder and 37 miles north of Denver, Longmont Colorado is in the northeastern corner of Boulder County. It has spectacular views of Longs Peak and is 30 miles east of Rocky Mountain National Park. The population of Longmont has grown to over 86,000 residents who enjoy the traditional main street, tree lined streets and many economic and recreational opportunities. Longmont feels like a midwestern town right in the heart of the west.
Sales data is for the one year period ending December 31, 2021 and includes both single family and attached homes.
The chart below shows the median price of single family homes in the City of Longmont between 1997 and 2021. Longmont’s historical prices are depicted by the purple line below.
Recreation:
The St. Vrain Greenway Trail is a great place to take a bike ride or to enjoy a leisurely walk next to the river. There are many tree lined parks and three golf courses in Longmont. Longmont has its own city owned recreation center. There are many ball fields and a skateboard park as well. Rocky Mountain National Park is just a short drive to the west. Longmont’s outlying rural areas are a great place to take a long bike ride.
Restaurants:
There are many choices for dining in Longmont Colorado. Whether you are looking for a locally owned one-of-a-kind restaurant or a national chain, you will not be left dissapointed. Here are a few helpful webpages to help you find a great restaurant.
Longmont has many options for shopping. There are many shops along Main Street, stores at the Twin Peaks Mall and some large format retailers on the Southeast and Northeast parts of town.
Word is getting out through the media on why Colorado is a great place to buy real estate right now.
People want to live here!!
We have not had a real estate bust. (See the graph below)
Low foreclosure rate. We don’t need to wade through tons of short sales and REO sales in order to start moving forward.
Strong economy with a young motivated work force who want to stay in Colorado.
Low inventory – new building started slowing in 2003 not in 2007 or 2008. There is not a stockpile of homes to sell.
But don’t take it from me. Watch this video from Fox Business News
This chart shows median prices in Boulder Colorado from 2000 to 2011. Small corrections but no collapse. We have a strong market with very few distressed sales. We should be one of the first areas to see a full recovery. For more graphs for communities like Louisville, Superior and Erie see this post.
Yesterday, I shared with you how different price ranges are currently selling in the Boulder County home market. Today we are going to look at the same indicators but today, we will use the data to find out which town has the strongest real estate market.
Under Contract Percentage:
This is simply the number of homes currently under contract divided by the number of homes on the market. The higher the number the stronger the market. The areas that have the highest percentage of homes under contract (Louisville and Superior) also happen to have the fewest homes on the market. Few homes on the market, steady demand = strong market.
Boulder 14%
Louisville 24%
Lafayette 22%
Longmont 20%
Superior 25%
Mountains 14%
Plains 13%
Absorption Rate:
Absorption rate compares the number of homes that sell during an average month (I use 12 months) to the number of homes currently on the market. For example if on average 10 homes sell per month and there are 120 homes on the market, the absorption rate would be 12 months. Another way of saying it would be, that it would take 1 year to sell all of the current inventory. A low number shows quick turnover and a strong market. During the late fall and winter when many would-be sellers remove their homes from the market the absorption rates are unusually low. Again, Superior and Louisville show the healthiest market and the mountains show the weakest market.
Boulder 6.9 months
Louisville 4.3 months
Lafayette 5.9 months
Longmont 6.1 months
Superior 4.2 months
Mountains 12.4 months
Plains 9.2 months
Average Negotiation Off Of List Price:
The areas that showed the strongest indicators in the statistics above also had the smallest average negotiation off of the list price.
Boulder 4.74%
Louisville 2.63%
Lafayette 2.65%
Longmont 2.95%
Superior 2.84%
Mountains 6.28%
Plains 4.78%
Overall Ranking of Strength of Market:
When you average out these results and rank for total strength, here are the strongest real estate markets in Boulder County right now.
1. Louisville and Superior (tie)
2. Lafayette
3. Longmont
4. Boulder
5. Suburban Mountains and Suburban Plains (tie)
Of course more goes into it than just these three statistics. So when you are ready to buy or sell real estate in Boulder County call a professional real estate agent like me. Neil Kearney 303.818.4055
Over the past 20 years of selling real estate in the Boulder Valley I have gained a lot of knowledge by having a lot of experiences. Helping you avoid situations that cause your stress is what I do every day. I love my job because every day is different but as the years have gone by I have definitely gotten better at what I do.
Whether this is your first time buying or selling a home or you are a seasoned pro, here are some general categories of information you might find helpful.
Real Estate 101 – These are the basics of home buying or home selling. This is what you should be considering when you think about making a change in where you live.
Statistics – Here is where you will find the latest statistics on the Boulder area real estate market as well as an archive of past data.
For Sellers – These are topics which are of specific interest when you are selling a home in Colorado.
For Buyers – These topics include, financing, inspection, valuation, affordability, etc.
Resources – You will find items like lead based paint information, home energy checklist, home security checklist, radon information, etc.
I have designed this website to be a resource. If you don’t see what you are looking for let me know and I will get you the information you need.
