Sales Reach High Water Mark Since 2007 – The Average Property Sold for 4% Over List Price
Real estate sales in Boulder County continue to be very strong. There were 625 sales in June, which is the highest number for the month since 2007. It tied the highest sales total for any month over the past nine years with July of 2013. Year-to-date cumulative sales are up 36% over last year and median prices throughout the county (both single family and attached dwellings) are up 21% from a year ago. On average properties sold for 4% over the list price, this is the highest I have seen in my time tracking the local market. Interest rates are up just .3% since January and are just above 3% for the most qualified borrowers. Despite the strong sales, some buyers are showing fatigue in this ultra-competitive market and are starting to pace themselves or deciding to rent and hope for an easier time to buy in the future.
To view all of the statistics in charts along with commentary and trending, view the slideshow below.
If you happen to be reading this you already know that the real estate market in Boulder County is unusually strong. Multiple offers are prevalent, prices are rising quickly and houses are selling quickly. But are all price ranges equal in their strength? This may be helpful to set appropriate expectations for both sellers and buyers in the Boulder area.
Under Contract Percentage
$0 – $500k 66%
$500k – $1M 67%
$1M – $1.5M 55%
$1.5M – $2M 47%
$2M – $2.5M 39%
$2.5M – $3M 38%
> $3M 31%
Currently 62.5% of all residential listings in Boulder County are already under contract.
Days To Contract
$0 – $500k 22 days
$500k – $1M 20 days
$1M – $1.5M 31 days
$1.5M – $2M 43 days
$2M – $2.5M 47 days
$2.5M – $3M 33 days
> $3M 78 days
The Boulder County average year-to-date is 22 days.
Inventory Absorption Rate
Inventory Absorption Rate measures how quickly the inventory of homes is getting turned over. I used the sales rate over the past six months to calculate how long it would take to sell all of the current inventory of homes (this includes active, active/backup and pending). The National Association of Realtors has said that a balanced market, neither a buyers market or a sellers market, has an absorption rate of six months. The average for Boulder County is 2.9 months.
$0 – $500k 2.3 months
$500k – $1M 3.1 months
$1M – $1.5M 2.9 months
$1.5M – $2M 3.29 months
$2M – $2.5M 3.25 months
$2.5M – $3M 6.5 months
> $3M 7.87 months
Did It Sell For Below or Above the List Price (Negotiation or Premium?)
$0 – $500k + 2.44%
$500k – $1M + 3.86%
$1M – $1.5M + 4.04%
$1.5M – $2M + 1.46%
$2M – $2.5M + 1.76%
$2.5M – $3M – .63%
> $3M – 2.74%
The average sale from January through today, June 25, 2021, closed for 2.2% above the listing price.
Conclusion
While the market is strong throughout all price ranges, it is clear by looking at all three of these statistics that more modestly priced homes are enjoying a stronger market than the higher price ranges. This is especially true for homes over $3 million. Buyers in that price range have a variety of homes to view and consider. This is not true in the lower price ranges where homes sell so quickly that at any one time there is not much to look at.
The normal method of analyzing statistics is to look back one year and see how the current month compares. Because of the pandemic, going back one year doesn’t provide useful information. Looking back further we see that total sales are lower than 2019 but slightly higher than May in 2016-2018. Inventory is still very low, and buyers are highly competitive in their offers for the listings that are coming to the market. The graph below shows the month-end inventory over the last 8 years.
Offers are coming in stronger than ever. In May 66% of sales closed for a price higher than the list price. Presumably, multiple offer situations. Of the properties that sold for more: the average premium paid was 9.78% or $69,355, the median was 18.3% higher than list and the top five sales above list price as a percentage were 29%, 30%, 32%, 36% and 50%. In most cases, homes are being listed where past sales justify the price. This means that values are rising quickly, and we are most likely going to see appreciation well into the double digits for the year.
I’m hearing reports from all around the country that the unprecedented market conditions we are seeing in our market are not unique. Prices are appreciating quickly. Competition has escalated and it’s quite common to see buyers pay 12-15% over the asking price. Along with that they are waiving the right to object to low appraisals and limiting or waiving inspections altogether. This is happening at a time when we are seeing fewer new listings coming on the market. Buyers are writing offer after offer and as they get beat out, they find new ways to be competitive and bid higher and bolder the next time around. It’s a frustrating cycle for buyers and a windfall for sellers.
For many buyers and buyer’s agents it’s like beginning anew each week. Scour the new listings, quickly set an appointment, decide which house in which to make an offer and then answer the big question, how high do we need to go on this one? More often than not the listing agent calls, or worse yet, sends a mass email informing of a better offer. Better luck next time! So the search starts anew, maybe with lower expectations and a willingness to go even higher next week.
Scroll through the slide deck showing the latest statistics for Boulder County. The quick change in prices is easy to see.
It would have been a big stretch for someone to predict what has happened over the last few months.As the stay-at-home orders lifted we have seen a surge in demand for homes. Not only in our local market but almost universally across the country. And just as buyer demand has surged the supply of homes has fallen to near record lows in the modern era.This convergence, along with low interest rates and a surging stock market have caused competition among buyers of the like I have not before seen.
We have seen times where multiple offers were prevalent, but this time the stakes have been upped and buyers are coming in well above asking price and waiving other contingencies to boot.As a result prices are increasing quickly and appraisers are staying on their toes to keep up.
Here are some of the key statistics for Boulder County real estate for the first quarter of 2021:
Total sales were up 11% for the quarter.There were 1,132 sales, up from 1,018.
The median price for all Boulder County single family home sales during the quarter was $566,650 which is up 2% from the same time frame a year ago.This seems low and is just a snapshot in time for each quarter.
The average days to accept an offer decreased by 16 days to 33.
Over the past decade owning real estate in Boulder County has been a great investment!Cumulative appreciation over the last five years has equalled 34%.Since 1991 we have seen homes increase in value by 438% (FHFA.gov).This is #1 in the nation.
This report shows positive signs in all aspects of the home sale market in Boulder County.I expect this trend to continue, but there is still much uncertainty ahead.Homes continue of sell and as always, I’m actively helping buyers and sellers successfully close transactions.I’m always here for you to be of service.Enjoy the report and stay in touch!
WOW! We are seeing unprecedented market conditions in the Boulder County real estate market. A strong and fast moving, sellers’ market is causing a spike in prices. Inventory is still low and at the end of March 69% of the ”on market” homes were already under contract. Two years ago at this same time 43% of listings were under contract. Most well priced homes are going under contract very quickly with multiple offers. It’s not uncommon for buyers to waive the right to object to a low appraisal and taking houses in ”as-is” condition.
55% of the sales in March exceeded the list price of the home. The average premium over the list price was 6% or almost $42,000! Appreciation is moving quickly!
Take a look at the annotated slide show below to get more details and see the trend charts for the month.
Reload document 
Open in new tab 
