by Neil Kearney | Apr 5, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Real estate sales in Boulder County during March 2010 were very strong. After a few months of good activity in the market (showings, contracts, calls, etc.) with no appreciable increase in sales, March provided the measurable results I had been expecting.
Total sales in Boulder County, including both single family residential and condos/townhomes, were up 42% compared to March 2009. This pulled the year-to-date sales up to a 19.7% increase compared to the first quarter of 2009.
Single family sales were up even more dramatically. For the month, sales increased 49%!
Median prices during the first three months are up compared to the first three months of last year, but this is too small a sample to make any comprehensive statement on prices.
It seems that the sales are not just confined to the entry level and that activity is being seen in all areas of the market.
The slide show below shows the comparative statistics for Boulder County on a monthly basis. For best results view the slide show “full screen” (hit the button with the four arrows pointing to the corners).
http://viewer.docstoc.com/
March 2010 Statistics
by neil kearney | Apr 5, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Real estate sales in Boulder County during March 2010 were very strong. After a few months of good activity in the market (showings, contracts, calls, etc.) with no appreciable increase in sales, March provided the measurable results I had been expecting.
Total sales in Boulder County, including both single family residential and condos/townhomes, were up 42% compared to March 2009. This pulled the year-to-date sales up to a 19.7% increase compared to the first quarter of 2009.
Single family sales were up even more dramatically. For the month, sales increased 49%!
Median prices during the first three months are up compared to the first three months of last year, but this is too small a sample to make any comprehensive statement on prices.
It seems that the sales are not just confined to the entry level and that activity is being seen in all areas of the market.
The slide show below shows the comparative statistics for Boulder County on a monthly basis. For best results view the slide show “full screen” (hit the button with the four arrows pointing to the corners).
http://viewer.docstoc.com/
March 2010 Statistics
by neil kearney | Mar 29, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
The prime conditions for an early selling season were just starting to take hold during February. The
continuation of the Homebuyers Tax Credit and amazingly low interest rates have converged to give would-be buyers a “kick in the pants”. All of the activity (remember last January and February?) so far this year has translated into just a 5% jump in closings compared to the first two months of 2009. But I can feel that there is more mass to this activity than what has shown up thus far at the closing table. To give you a bit of a preview, as I write this in late March, the number of closings has jumped 17% from the same time period a year ago.
Good news all around, but does it have an expiration date? Is April 30th the date when the carriage turns back into a pumpkin? Let’s look at a the two sides of this question.
If the tax credit is not extended in some capacity we will see a sharp drop off in the sales of entry level homes. It is inevitable, we have been borrowing sales from the future and when the incentive ends I suspect we will have a bit of a hangover which will dampen the momentum we have seen recently.
Another possibility is the extension of the Homebuyer Tax Credit but with a smaller credit. For example instead of an $8,000 credit for first time buyers, the credit would be reduced to $6,000 for the next three months and then stepped down again to $4,000 and again to $2,000 and then phased out. A similar stepped down approach could be implemented for the move-up credit, which currently stands at $6,500. The tax credit has helped bolster sales but it hasn’t been the end-all solution that some thought it might be. The truth of the matter is that if someone doesn’t have a job, the credit or the confidence to buy a house a tax credit doesn’t mean much. As we move slowly out of recession, the economic principles which lead people to move (new jobs, promotions, transfers) will naturally increase the activity in the market. This along with a tax credit will have a broader impact. An extension of the Homebuyer Tax Credit has not been announced and I don’t expect it would be until very close to the end of April. At this point this type of thought is just speculation and it is too early to tell. However, it certainly is not too early to start lobbying for the support of such a program by contacting your representatives in Washington DC.
Now so that we don’t get too far off the subject, here are a few statistics.
- Absorption Rate – This measures the current inventory as well as how quickly homes have been selling in any given market. You find absorption rate by finding the average number of homes that sell each month and then dividing that number into the total of homes currently on the market. I use an entire year of sales to find the average monthly sales rate because it smoothes out seasonality. Others use a shorter period of time. The result of the equation is the number of months it would take, given the current sales rate to sell the entire current inventory. Here is the absorption rate for Boulder County by price range.
$0 – $249,999 = 6.51 months
$250,000 – $499,999 = 7.8 months
$500,000 – $749,999 = 10.5 months
$750,000 – $999,999 = 22.5 months
$1,000,000 – $1,249,999 = 18.5 months
$1,250,000 – $1,499,999 = 48 months
$1,500,000 and above = 37.6 months
- So far in 2010 there have been 602 sales of single family and attached dwellings in Boulder County. 79% of those properties have sold for less than $499,999. Here is the breakdown of what has sold and the percentage of the market by price range.
$0 – $249,999 = 235 Sold (39%)
$250,000 – $499,999 = 246 Sold (40%)
$500,000 – $749,999 = 88 Sold (15%)
$750,000 – $999,999 = 16 Sold (2%)
$1,000,000 – $1,249,999 = 6 Sold (1%)
$1,250,000 – $1,499,999 = 2 Sold (<1%)
$1,500,000 and above = 9 Sold (2%)
by Neil Kearney | Mar 17, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
It’s March and for me that means: March Madness, the beginning daylight savings time, improving weather and the beginning of the spring real estate season. Two of the above can be set to a positive date in advance. The other two are a bit nebulous. The weather is improving and beginning March 1st it felt like a good idea to be spending more time outside. This is of course subject to change.
The spring real estate season. Now that is a moving target. Last year it didn’t start until May. This year it started heating up in February. Through the years I have learned to swim on top of the waves rather than try to stop them. My thought is that you work hard in all seasons, knowing that some will yield more fruit than others.
This year we have the tax credit expiring at the end of April which has brought an interesting dynamic to the market. First time buyers are out in droves. But is the rally limited to properties in the entry-level? The chart below shows the percentage of homes which are under contract across different price ranges. The properties represented are both single family and attached homes in Boulder County.
http://viewer.docstoc.com/
Under Contract % Boulder County –
The kelly green bars (it is St. Patricks Day) show the data as of today. Comparing today’s market to a number of dates last year we are looking good. Improvement in almost every price range is the rule. On average 15% of properties are under contract. The range is from 6% for properties priced over $1,750,000 to 28% for properties priced less than $250,000. While there is not as much activity in the upper price ranges, better activity is being seen across all price ranges.
by Neil Kearney | Mar 4, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics |
So far, it has been an interesting year in the Boulder area real estate market. It feels very different than a year ago, for the better. More activity, more showings, more calls, more plans, more positive expectations… However, after looking at two months of data we are just a touch ahead of last year in terms of properties closed.
Here is what I think is going on. We are busy setting the foundation for a surge that will correspond with the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit. We are already seeing its effects but as the deadline draws near buyers will stop shopping and start buying. This should happen by the end of March. If you don’t recall the basics of the tax credit see my previous post on that subject. Even if you have already filed your 2009 taxes you can do an amended return and see that money this year!
Here is a chart showing the activity in the local market on a weekly basis. You will notice that there was a surge in closings this past week. This is fairly normal at the end of each month.
