by neil kearney | Dec 11, 2008 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Just an FYI, the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) formally known by the acronym OFHEO just released their latest HPI (House Price Index). Acronyms abound but I promise to keep it to a minimum for the rest of the post. Let me start again… The government office responsible for keeping track of house values nationwide, recently released their latest report. Nationally, re-sale home prices fell 6% between Sept. 30, 2007 and Sept. 30, 2008. The annual decrease represented “the largest four-quarter drop in the history of the index, which extends back to 1975.” Obviously, housing is in the midst of the financial crisis in which we find ourselves but we still need to remember that real estate markets are local and a 6% decline was not the case in all markets. Some fared better and some fared much worse.
First let’s look at our local market – the Boulder/Longmont MSA (Metropolitan Statistical District – I can’t stop, they are everywhere). Over the previous four quarters prices have increased 2.38% in our area. Let me repeat, houses have on average increased in value during the past year. Let’s see how that stacks up nationally. Back at the end of June in 2006 our one year appreciation rate was 3.6%. Not bad, but nationally, that ranked us 73rd worst out of the 291 of the largest areas. This most recent report has us ranked 38th best out of the 291 areas with appreciation of 2.38%. Clearly, we have not had any spectacular changes in our market, good or bad over the past 2 years. While much of the country is experiencing a drastic boom and bust cycle we are plodding along. The attached chart shows the annual appreciation in Boulder County compared to that of the nation as a whole.
Our market really has not been overrun by foreclosures and the inventory of homes on the market has fallen faster than the sales declines. This means that locally, homes are more scarce than they were a year ago. What we are challenged with is a consumer who is uncertain of the future and filled with caution. I believe our market is poised for a great gain once people decide that is okay to buy again. The interest rates are great, there are deals to be had and our overall economy is looking pretty good compared to other areas. I believe there is pent-up demand just waiting for some good news. While I would love to see more activity in the market, I am very grateful for our market conditions.
by neil kearney | Nov 18, 2008 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Interesting Sales Trends
Comparing year-to-date figures with year end figures leaves much to conjecture. Figures show that through the first three quarters the market for single family homes in Boulder County is off roughly 13% in total sales. I was curious if this was still true after a few slower than normal months and also to see which areas are doing better than others in terms of sales and price stability. So in order to answer these questions I compared sales of all residential and land real estate from January 1st through November 16th for each of the last 8 years over 7 market areas. Here is what I found!
- Sales are down in all market areas, but most profound in the City of Boulder.
- Sales peaked in 2005 in most areas.
- Median prices are holding stable! See the chart below and you will notice just a slight decline in prices in Longmont, Lafayette and Boulder County as a whole but overall we are looking unusually resilient.
- YTD sales are down 17% in Boulder, just 5% in Longmont, and 27% in the mountain areas. This shows that Longmont is recovering off of a terrible year last year and the market is now absorbing the inventory.
by neil kearney | Nov 4, 2008 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics, Uncategorized
October Sales Update
The sales in October continued the trend of fewer sales that we have been tracking all year. There were 17% fewer closings during the month when compared to October 2007. Year-to-Date sales
are down 13.7% when compared to last year.
The median price for sales of single family homes in Boulder County for the month was $335,000, down from $377,000 recorded last October. Does this mean that home prices have fallen $40,000 in one year? No! What this says is that the median prices of homes that did sell during October were lower than the ones that sold last October. More plainly; more lower priced homes sold this year than last. In fact the market for homes in the conventional lending range of $417,000 and below are selling fairly well throughout the county. The only exception is in Longmont where a majority of homes, including foreclosures sell in that range. Locales like Boulder and Louisville are selling quite well below $450,000.
If you take a longer view of prices you will find that values are holding quite well overall. There are some areas that have seen declines but for the most part we have been stable. One factor leading to this stability has been the reduction in homes on the market. As I stated earlier, sales are down 13.7% but inventory is actually down 17%. There are actually fewer homes to choose from this fall than last.
Happy Election Day! It has been a long hard election and I think most people are ready to move forward with whomever is chosen to lead. I know I am.
by neil kearney | Oct 14, 2008 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Sales for the year are down 13.4% from last year through three quarters and down 28.5% from the peak year in 2005. While we have definitely seen slowing activity it is good to remember that we are comparing this years sales to a record braking era. We are comparing this years sales to an era of easy money where anyone who wanted a mortgage had a good chance of getting one. We are coming back to reality and the transition will hurt a bit. Locally we did not see a huge gain in value along with the easy credit so our prices are relatively stable.
Helping this is the reduction of the number of properties on the market. The gross number of homes on the market has decreased since last year. This is important because when the market is flooded with unsold homes the prices tend to drop. The market in Boulder County over $1 Million seems to be over supplied and prices will need to come down in order to move what is now for sale. The lower price ranges are healthier.
The first graph below shows the gross inventory of single family homes on the market and the second graph shows the number of closings of single family homes in Boulder County in any given month. The yellow bars show sales in 2008.
by neil kearney | Sep 25, 2008 | Statistics, Uncategorized
I’m always trying to get a better picture about what is happening out there in the market. Generally it is slow but it certainly isn’t stagnant. Each day I get a “hotsheet” that gives me a one day snapshot of what has happened in the last business day. Among others, I get to see the new listings, those that went under contract and those that closed. I can gauge general activity by looking at how long each of these lists are each day. I especially like to look at how many and what type of homes have gone under contract. I thought it would be interesting to expand this look and see how the gross numbers of new listings, under contract listings and sold listings compare over time. The chart below shows the data over a year from all residential properties in Boulder County.
The left side of the chart shows greater number of new listings, under contract listings and sales during 2006 and 2007 than in 2008. We’ll see how the rest of September does because it looks to be quite a bit low in all categories for being the 25th of the month already. It is interesting that the basic monthly/seasonal trends are still holding steady.
by neil kearney | Sep 11, 2008 | Statistics |
I check the local inventory numbers every few months. As I review the numbers I think back to my macro-economics class back in college. Even these many years later, I remember that too much supply causes a drop in prices and a scarcity causes prices to rise. I think everyone would agree that most real estate markets in the US are struggling with an oversupply of listings. Credit is tight and generally buyers are not in the buying mood. The Boulder market is not immune. So far this year our sales are off 13% from last year. Properties are selling, but not as quickly or in quantities that we have seen in the past.
What is different in the local market is that the gross number of listings on the market have fallen in the past year. There are fewer houses to choose from now than there were 12 months ago. Obviously not all of those houses have sold, so the owners must have either stayed put or rented their houses out. This lack of oversupply is helping keep prices stable.
I figure inventory by figuring a monthly sales rate and then dividing that sales rate into the number of active listings. Overall for Boulder County the inventory in months is just about the same as it was a year ago, even with a slower sales rate. The graphs for both single family and attached dwellings are shown below.
