Boulder County Real Estate according to The National Association of Realtors

by Neil Kearney | Jun 17, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has just released a local market report for Boulder County.  It is quite thorough and I’d thought I would pass it along.  If you don’t want to wade through the details here are some highlights.  All data and conclusions drawn are based upon data ending March 31, 2010.

Sales Data:

• 1 year appreciation in Boulder County +2.3%.  (US -.5%)
• 3 year appreciation in Boulder County -9.4%  (US -22.1%)
• 3 year housing equity gain -$34,900 (US -$47,333)
• 7 year housing equity gain $31,400  (US -$467)
• 9 year housing equity gain $41,400  (US $22,733)

Local Financial Fundamentals:

• 12-month job change -3,300
• 36-month job change -7,800
• Current unemployment rate  6.4%
• Year ago unemployment rate 6.8%
• Commentary – Job losses are a problem and will weigh on demand, but layoffs are declining which could help buyer confidence.  Unemployment in Boulder is better than the national average and improving.
• The current level of construction (as measured by new permits) is 82% below the long-term average.
• Single family housing permits are down 16.3% lower from last year but they may have bottomed.
• Local affordability is improved.  Locally 16.5% of income goes towards mortgage payments.  Our historical average is 20.6%.  Houses are more affordable (lower prices, low interest rates).

Foreclosures:

• 92.3% of local mortgages are prime (not sub-prime or no-doc, interest only, etc.).  The national average is 88.5%.  This stability in type of loan has allowed us to have been less affected by foreclosures.
• The percentage of prime loans in foreclosure at the end of February was .9% (US 2.7%)
• The percentage of subprime loans in foreclosure at the end of February was 11.9% (US 17.9%)
• The percentage of Alt-A loans in foreclosure at the end of February was 4.9% (US 14.8%)
• The number of 60 day and 90 day delinquencies continues to rise both locally and nationally.

The report is filled with reports and graphs and has additional commentary.  It is quite robust and it supports my overall view of the market.  In my view we are plugging along but not out of the woods.  Overall we are doing much better than the nation as a whole.

Click here to view and or download the NAR report on Boulder County.

FHFA – Boulder Home Values Drop 2.3%

by Neil Kearney | May 26, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics | 1 comment

Every quarter the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) publishes a home value index.  The index includes results for approximately 300 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA’s) around the nation.  Home values are also figured for states and regions.  I prefer this index to the popular Case-Schiller Index because it includes a much broader measure of the real estate markets than the 20 largest metro areas can provide.  It is also nice that the index measures home appreciation in the Boulder area.  The Boulder MSA includes all of Boulder County.  For the 1 year period ending March 31, 2010 home appreciation in Boulder was -2.3%.

Let’s put this number in perspective.  On the negative side -2.3% is the lowest appreciation rate in decades.  At the end of December home appreciation in Boulder County was -1.5%.  Those in the glass half full group (aye) find comfort, despite a loss in home values, in comparison.  So here are some facts that make us locally feel pretty lucky.

• The average home appreciation for every home in the United States was -3.1%.
• Only nine states (including Washington DC) had positive appreciation.
• Only 10 of the 301 MSA’s had positive home appreciation.
• Boulder County, despite a negative 2.3% annual appreciation ranks 50th out of 301 MSA’s.
• The 20 worst areas for appreciation begins with Detroit at -13.49% and ends with Bend, OR at -23.03% in annual appreciation.
• Homes values in Boulder County have increased 6.89% over the past 5 years.
• Home values in Merced CA have decreased 49.3% over the past 5 years.
• Home values for all US homes have decreased 2.85% over the past 5 years.

Yes, our market is not as robust as it once was but, boy, we need to count our blessings.  Our market has not been overrun with foreclosures, supply and demand have been pretty much in line with each other, our job market has remained strong.  We are in relatively good shape.  This does not mean that we are out-of-the-woods yet.  We still have some major challenges to overcome, both locally and nationally, but despite the negative appreciation, I am feeling much better about our market than I was a year ago.

The charts below (hit the four arrows for full screen), show the trends in Boulder’s FHFA ranking as well as compares Boulder County’s home appreciation with the United States’.

http://viewer.docstoc.com/
Boulder Home Appreciation – FHFA