by neil kearney | Jan 12, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
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Boulder Real Estate Statistics – December 2009 –
Sales of all residential real estate were up 2.2% in December over last year. This marks three straight months of increases. Inventory is creeping up a bit, but I think this is mostly due to the surge of new listings we get after the Holidays. The above presentation includes: sales for single family and condos in Boulder County, Median Price of sales, Under Contract Ratio and Total Inventory.
Coming soon is the 2009 Boulder Real Estate wrap-up.
by neil kearney | Jan 10, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
The City of Louisville, Colorado has been a consistent performer on the local real estate scene. Louisville is a town of roughly 20,000 people located approximately 7 miles northeast of Boulder, Colorado. It has been honored by Money Magazine as the “Best Place to Live” in its size category for two straight years. Whenever I look at comparative statistics such as, under contract percentage or absorption rate (an indication of market flow), Louisville always ranks at, or near the top when compared to the rest of Boulder County.
There were 271 sales (single family, condos, investment) within Louisville during 2009, twelve more than were recorded in 2008. At any given time it is common to find low a inventory of homes on the market and in contrast to its close neighbor, you can find a very nice 3 bedroom home for the median price of $331,000. Median prices have increased every year over the past decade and were up almost 4% during 2009. The rest of Boulder County was down 3% last year.
The absorption rate is a measure of market flow which relates the current inventory to the number of homes that sell during an average month. In Louisville, the absorption rate is approximately 3.5 months. This means that it would take 3.5 months to sell all of the homes currently on the market given the sales rate over the past year (a theoretical study but interesting nonetheless). For comparison the average absorption rate in the City of Boulder is about 6.5 months.
Louisville has much going for it right now but the future looks especially bright. Conoco Phillips is in the process of building a major corporate campus on the old Storage Tek site. This campus’ first phase is scheduled to be completed in 2013 and will bring multiple thousand jobs to the area. If you are interested in making an investment in Louisville Colorado give me a call. All statistics are from data collected from IRES MLS and are compiled by Neil Kearney, Broker/Owner of Kearney Realty Co. Metro Brokers.
by neil kearney | Jan 8, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Real estate sales within the city limits of Boulder were more deeply affected by the tough market conditions in 2009 than Boulder County as a whole. Total sales of all types of residential real estate were down 21% within Boulder while the broader market of Boulder County was down 15% when compared to 2008 sales. The main reason why the sales were down more in the city than in the county was price. The median price in the City of Boulder is nearly twice than those in the county as a whole and this year the lower price ranges were selling much better than the higher priced homes. 
Median prices within the City of Boulder for all residential sales was down just 1.8% at a combined price of $393,000. The median price of single family detached homes in the City of Boulder were $525,000. This represents a decrease of 2.4%. For condos the median price for all sales during the year was $242,000; this represents a decrease of 2.8% for the year.
Absorption rate is a statistic which analyzes both inventory and sales. The result of the equation is a number which shows the number of months it would take to sell all of the current inventory given the sales rate over the past year. The charts below show year end absorption rates for both single family homes and condos within Boulder Colorado. The closer you get to zero, the better the market (at least for a seller). Currently, it would take between six and seven months to sell all of the available homes. 
by neil kearney | Dec 29, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends
We have become a more stagnant nation. This could allude to many different topics, but since I specialize in real estate, this statement has to do with the number of people who move each year. According to the Pew Research Center, just 11.9% of Americans changed residences between 2007 and 2008. That number is expected to be even lower this year. These are the lowest numbers percentage since the government began keeping track in the late 1940’s.
The sales numbers echo this data. Real estate sales in my local market, Boulder Colorado, were down 15% during 2008 and down another 17% through November of 2009. The data is relevant, but the more important discussion surrounds why sales are down and what we might expect in the future.
First let’s look at why sales are down. The main reasons for the recent decline in sales have been well documented; poor economy, lack of credit and unemployment, all leading to a historic lack in consumer confidence. According to a Pew Research study earlier this year 79% of American Households considered this a bad time to sell a house. Of those same respondents, 65% thought that this was a good time to buy. When you can’t buy until you sell and you think it is a lousy time to sell, the only rational thing to do is to not do either and that is exactly what people have done.
Now let’s look at prospects for the future. I am not a soothsayer or a prophet but the spike in the those changing residences in 1985 – 1986 intrigued me. What was the cause of that spike and what can we learn from it? The early 1980’s were also a tough time to buy or sell a home. Interest rates were sky high (see attached chart) and people just couldn’t afford or justify a 17% loan. If there was a survey at that time asking if it was a good time to buy or sell, the answers would have been very pessimistic. When the interest rates came back down to earth in late 1985 and 1986 there was a spike in the percentage of people changing residences. The change in interest rates seemed to release a surge of pent up movers.
Can we expect the same scenario? There are many factors that are causing the sales slowdown and as each is corrected (yes I’m optimistic), I believe that suppressed buyers and sellers will come out of the woodwork and cause a spike in activity, not unlike what we saw in 1985 -1986. People have not had a reason to move. Many would argue that there have been many reasons not to move. But as those reasons fade away more and more will make up for lost time and move to that bigger, smaller, closer, more remote home.
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by neil kearney | Dec 22, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Uncategorized
Sales up 69% during November. Is it to be believed? The numbers have been checked twice and it has been confirmed. But what does it mean? Is this the end of the slump? Have we broken the trend? Shall we brush up on our karaoke version of “Let The Good Times Roll? Not so fast.
After a few years of month upon month of same month declining sales we have now had two positive
months. But before we get too excited we should answer the ever present question “why”. The way I see it there are three main reasons why we have seen strong sales over the past few months. Those three reasons are: Stimulus, Confidence and Comparison. I will tackle them in order.
The stimulus plan, more specifically the homebuyer tax credit, has been around since the first quarter of 2009 but this was an easy one to procrastinate on. The original deadline before it was extended in early November was November 30th. As we got closer and closer to that deadline more and more first timers were racing the clock in order to take advantage of once in a lifetime money. Many argued that these people were going to buy a house anyway but the credit and the deadline that went along with it condensed the sales. The argument was that we were borrowing next year’s sales now. Now that the tax credit has been extended and expanded we might just see a new round of stimulated sales ending in April.
After more than a year of gloom and doom we are starting to see some signs that we are coming out of what has been dubbed “The Great Recession”. Many sectors seem to be recovering however; housing is not on the short list. In Boulder County the recession took its toll but it certainly was not as deep and painful as many other areas. Unemployment in the county is currently in the 6’s while nationally it is around 10%. Jobs drive homeownership. There are many reasons why people move but most of those reasons can be put off if all is not quiet on the job front. If the vast majority of people are still employed what caused our sales to drop more than 50% over the past few years? Much of the difference can be attributed to confidence. When your company is laying off and you could be next you don’t buy a house. When your salary has been cut 10% you lose the drive to take on a new mortgage. When you see your neighbor lose their house to foreclosure you tend to hold on to what you already have. In a word consumer confidence has taken a big blow and we are just now starting to see some of those people who have been putting off those buying decisions come out of the woodwork. As the economy becomes brighter, more and more will feel that it is safe to make a decision.
I’m a sports fan and after many years of watching our local teams one thing has become very clear. For a mediocre team (and we have seen our fair share lately), results are directly tied to the quality of the competition. If the Buffs are playing the College of the Grand Prairie State we tend to look pretty darn good and when we play say, Texas we tend to look like a high school team. And so it is with statistics. For 27 months in row our sales figures were lower when compared to the year before. At some point what you’re comparing to is so bad that anything looks decent. Remember a year ago, November sales were hamstrung by the economic backwash that was causing banks to fail, companies to go bankrupt and mortgages to disappear. So while it is great for sales to be up 69% it is sort of like the Buffaloes beating Fairview High School 77-0 in a game. Good news but not all that impressive.
Last month the Boulder Daily Camera declared that home values had fallen for the first time in 25 years and that the average homeowner in Boulder had lost $40,000. This is another reason why you can’t believe everything that you read. Yes, median prices have gone down. According to FHFA.gov median prices had fallen .56% from 3rd quarter 2008 to 3rdquarter 2009. IRES statistics show a decrease of 3% in the county through the end of November. But $40,000? Where did that come from? Each month BARA reports the median prices of the homes that sell in each locale during that particular month. During October the median sales price of homes in Boulder happen to be $40,000 lower than October of 2008. It is not scientific, it proves nothing and the sample size was just 36 homes sold.
It will be an interesting year ahead. I expect a quick start and am hoping that consumer confidence and jobs begin to surge just as the stimulus expires.
by neil kearney | Dec 7, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
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November 2009 Boulder Real Estate Report –
The report above are the latest market statistics for the Boulder Real Estate Market and it includes multiple charts with annotations. The numbers include sales from all of Boulder County including: Boulder, Louisville, Lafayette, Longmont, Superior, and unincorporated Boulder County. Just click on the slide presentation and take a look, no registration required, just good information.
The highlights for the real estat market this month are a huge increase in the number of sales compared to last November. We are at levels very similar to 2007.
