by neil kearney | Dec 1, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
The activity in the market continues to surprise me. I just did a quick preview of November sales and total sales in Boulder County are going to be way up for November compared to a year ago. I see three major factors fueling the real estate market in the Boulder area: higher consumer confidence, first-time homebuyer tax credit and low interest rates.
The unemployment rate in Boulder County is 6%, well below the national average. It looks like many of those happily employed people are deciding to buy real estate while the conditions are just right.
On a related side note. Segate, a large employer who has employees in Longmont Colorado had layoffs and mandatory 10% pay cuts about a year ago. From what I have heard, the company has reinstated the original pay scale. This type of action frees up the wallets of all of the employees who are no longer afraid for their jobs.
by neil kearney | Nov 24, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends
I write a monthly column for the Boulder Area Realtor Association which accompanies the statistics for the month. While it is written for an audience of fellow Realtors, I thought I might share it here as well.
For 26 months I have been finding different ways to tell the same story. The story has been one of 
fewer sales. Month after month, last years numbers better than this years. Like a giant staircase heading down into a medieval dungeon. Until now! October was the first month in over two years where Boulder County had more closings in our market area than the same month the previous year. And it wasn’t just by a few. Sales were up 11%!
Okay, the streak has been broken, but is this just a temporary reprieve before resuming the downward march? I don’t know for sure, but here are my thoughts. Remembering a year ago, it’s not hard to imagine why sales in October 2008 were not that hard to beat. If you recall, we were in the midst of a financial hurricane. The stock market was falling by hundreds of points a day, banks were failing and being bailed out, jobs were being lost by the bushel (more on this later), and we Americans began to super-glue our wallets shut. October 2008 was the first month of real estate sales that began to feel the effect of the economic crisis that has played havoc since then. When you compare that uncertainty to now maybe not much has changed on the macro level, but I think as a collective whole we have become a whole lot more comfortable with it. After living through report after report saying that the “sky is falling, the sky is falling” we eventually figure out that the sky isn’t actually falling and for many, it might just be a good time to pry open that wallet.
There are a few core reasons why people buy or sell real estate and those reasons are tied to change. Some reasons are urgent and can’t wait for a better time in the market. Some reasons are more discretionary and tend to simmer until it feels like the right time. Some people are just in the right place at the right time. There are many reasons that turn the wheels of a market but none are as strong or as broad as job creation. During an economic downturn, the power behind the real estate market is hampered by job losses. As jobs are lost, general confidence of coworkers, neighbors, and relatives (who still have jobs) decreases.
Lately, we have been getting the news that technically the recession is over. The GDP has risen. While we are far from being “out of the woods”, it seems we may be bouncing off of the bottom. In my opinion, it will be a modest recovery until the economy begins to create jobs in a big way. But from what I have been seeing personally, people who have been putting off a decision are starting to think hard about taking advantage of the current market. We should be see our trend of higher sales on a monthly basis continue at least through spring. We may have turned the corner, albeit slowly.
by neil kearney | Nov 5, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
http://viewer.docstoc.com/
Boulder County October 2009 Real Estate Statistics –
The numbers for October are in and they are positive. The number of sales thoughout Boulder County increased when compared to the same month last year for the first time since August of 2007. I see a few causes for this: first remember last October sales were affected by the early stages of the global economic meltdown, second, the first time homebuyer tax credit is definitely helping sales locally, and third, the overall economic and credit environments are much improved.
Sales are still down over 20% for the year but if you look at the first two graphs that show sales by month, you will see that the shape of the sales curve has changed this year. We are having more consistent sales and there has not been such a drastic drop off from the summer highs. I’d love see this continue and the continuation of the homebuyer tax credit will definitely help if that gets passed.
Other stats you will find in the above presentation (click on full screen to get the best viewing) are under contract % and inventory. Overall the under contract % is still above the 15% level which usually means a healthy market. Inventory continues to stay in check.
There is no substitute for an individual analysis. So if you are considering selling or buying in the near future give me a call and I can run numbers for your specific area and price range.
by neil kearney | Nov 3, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends
I’m pretty excited! For the first time since August of 2007, year over year sales of residential real estate 
increased in Boulder County. It is still early and final numbers won’t be in for a few days yet but so far residential sales are up 11.1% compared to last October. When you throw condos into the mix sales are up 6%. Not earth shaking and just one month but after seeing 25 straight months with fewer sales than the year before it is nice to change that broken record.
The first time homebuyer credit definitely helped and last October we were in the hangover from the first blows of the economic meltdown but a gain is a gain. I am more bullish for the coming months than I was a year ago, that’s for sure. Real estate is driven by jobs and I think the job recovery will be slow. However, for those who already have jobs any signal of hiring will promote consumer confidence. I for one am looking forward to 2010.
by neil kearney | Oct 29, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends
We have just received word that the Senate has voted to approve a bill this week that would extend 
the $8,000 tax credit through June of 2010. The “Dodd-Lieberman-Isakson” amendment would also extend the credit to NON FIRST TIME buyers as well. The non first timers will get $6,500 but still that is nothing to sneeze at. I will send out more information as it becomes available. There is a catch on the dateline. The buyer has to have a signed contract by the end of April 2010 and then they have to close by the end of June 2010.
This is a bold move to stimulate home sales through the traditional slower winter months and I for one welcome and applaud it. I will keep you upated as the bill moves towards becoming law.
by neil kearney | Oct 27, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Activity in the market has been moderate. The number of listings that are going under contract in Boulder County continue near the 100 unit mark. There have been fewer sales lately, but that is to be expected given the time of year. We are approximately one month away from the expiration of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit so it will be interesting what that does to the market going forward.
