by neil kearney | Aug 27, 2008 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics, Uncategorized
OFHEO Quarterly Appreciation Report
The latest price index report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight has been released and it contains some very interesting information. During the one year period ending June 30th 2008 the average appreciation nationally was -1.71% for purchases and transactions and -4.8% for purchase only transactions. Thirty of the fifty states showed positive appreciation for the one year period; and CA, FL and NV saw prices decline more than 12% over the the past two quarters.
Closer to home, Colorado had average appreciation of 1.82% over the past year, ranking it 18th. For the 1 year period ending in March, Colorado ranked 23rd with an appreciation of 2.29%. Clearly appreciation nationally is still struggling. For the Boulder area; our appreciation for the past year was 2.47%, ranking it 69th out of 292 metropolitan areas, not bad. For the second quarter Boulder County had appreciation of .25%, ranking it 67th.
According to Patrick Lawler, the chief economist of OFHEO “The most overbuilt areas of the country –including California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida –contrast greatly with most other states, where prices are declining more moderately or even increasing”.
The attached chart shows the appreciation rate of Boulder County in orange contrasted to the United States as a whole.
by neil kearney | Jul 8, 2008 | Statistics
June 2008 Month End Statistics
Half of 2008 is in the books. On one hand I am thankful for the activity that is out in the market and to my loyal clients who have kept my sales right on track. On the other hand the market has lagged behind where I thought it would be. The total number of sales is down roughly 13% for the year and down about 25% when compared to June 2007. The chart below shows this trend.
Prices for the most part are holding well. While I am noticing larger negotiations on sold listings we are not seeing a major run up in inventory, a precursor to falling prices. Our market has seen both fewer homes on the market and fewer buyers looking (balance). Prices of single family homes in the city and county are within 1% of where they were six months ago and prices of condos have actually increased during that time frame. 
The number of active listings that are currently under contract is right around 25%. This indicates to me that houses and condos are still moving. The market of homes on the market is smaller but the activity is keeping up.
For many people in many situations this is a great time to buy. It is my sense of things that there is quite a bit of pent up demand, just waiting for some good news. If you look ahead a few years I think we will recover quite nicely. Rewarding those who are able to purchase now.
by neil kearney | Jun 18, 2008 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics |
As you might imagine, I hear this question quite a bit. Yes, sales are down and without sub-prime financing there are fewer buyers out there, but overall the market is doing okay. The inventory is in a reasonable range, the number of homes under contract is strong and the total showing set greater than last year. The true measure on how the market is doing will be in the late summer to early fall. Traditionally this is when we see a second surge.
Below is a graph showing the gross number of showings in our market area. The orange bars show this years showing activity and the green bars show last years showing activity. You can see that usually by mid-July the showing start their decreasing. This year we are still increasing into June, I think a good sign of activity.
Below is a graph that shows median sales price by zip code. There are four data points over the past 16 months or so. The data shows that there has been no appreciable gain nor loss in these areas and time frames. We are holding pretty steady overall.
by neil kearney | Jun 2, 2008 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Boulder vs. United States
OFHEO Home Price Index
The OFHEO Home Price Index for the first quarter of 2008 was recently released and the results were very interesting. Directly from the report which can be found at http://www.ofheo.com/ is the following text:
“Significant Findings:
Purchase-only Index:
1. Prices fell in the latest quarter in 43 states.
2. Eight states exhibited quarterly price declines of more than 3 percent and two
states — California and Nevada –saw prices decline more than 8 percent.
3. Every Census Division experienced a price decline in the latest quarter. Prices
were weakest in the Pacific Census Division, which experienced a 5.9 percent
price decline in the quarter.
All- transactions HPI:
4. The states with the greatest price appreciation between the first quarter of 2007
and the first quarter of 2008 were: Wyoming (6.3%), Utah (5.6%), Montana
(4.9%), Texas (4.7%), and Alabama (4.5%). The states with the sharpest
depreciation for the same period were: California (-10.6%), Nevada (-10.3%),
Florida (-8.1%), Arizona (-5.5%), and Michigan (-3.1%).
5. Of the 20 ranked cities with the greatest price declines over the latest four
quarters, all but one (Las Vegas-Paradise, Nevada) were in California or Florida.
6. The Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with the greatest price appreciation
between the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008 were: Houma-
Bayou, Louisiana (11.2%), Grand Junction, Colorado (9.1%), and Wenatchee,
Washington (8.0%). The MSAs with the sharpest depreciation for the same
period were: Merced (-24.7%), Stockton (-21.5%), and Modesto (-21.0%), all in
California.
7. Of the 292 cities on OFHEO’s list of “ranked” MSAs, 164 had positive quarterly
appreciation and 128 had price declines.”
The US as a whole showed a small decline for the first time ever over a 4 quarter period. What is clear is that the Boulder Colorado market is doing significantly better than much of the nation. Over the past 4 quarters, the Boulder area had average appreciation of 4.11% and Colorado had 2.39% while the US as a whole was -.03%. The chart below shows how our market is moving contrary to the country as a whole. Currently we are ranked 53rd out of the 291 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, a marked improvement from where we were just 18 months ago. 
by neil kearney | May 23, 2008 | Statistics
Percentage of Homes Under Contract
One of the best measures of the strength of a market is the percentage of active listings that are under contract. This statistic gives a good barometer to the market and if anything is actually selling. One of the measures of a declining market (one that cannot sustain values) according to Fannie Mae is a market that has fewer than 15% of active listings under contract. Thankfully we are above that percentage in all of our local areas. In some areas such as attached dwellings in Boulder the under contract percentage is just under 40%. Strong in any market. This doesn’t mean that we have switched to a sellers market it just says that there is activity in the market. More than that we cannot ask.
Have a great Memorial Day Weekend! Boulder is a great place to be this time of year. See you at the Bolder Boulder. 
by neil kearney | May 20, 2008 | Statistics
Inventory By Price Range
We are in the midst of the busy spring selling season and I haven’t had much time to post to the blog. The market is going strong. Over 25% of all active listings available in Boulder County are under contract. The strongest markets in terms of Under Contract Ratio are; Boulder attached dwellings (40%) and Louisville homes (49%).
Another good measure of how the market is faring is measuring the months of inventory currently on the market. Every six months or so I compare the inventory numbers across price ranges for both homes and condos. Both charts are presented below. In summary, not much has changed over the past year with these numbers. We are holding tight across all price ranges with the exception of single family homes between $1,000,000 and $1,199,000. A year ago and six months ago the inventory in this price range was around 10 months, now it is at 23.29 months. Not as many sales and many more listings explain the change.
