by neil kearney | Mar 18, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
More on the real estate market in Boulder County. Last time I presented the current under contract ratio numbers. Today I will present the inventory or absorption rate. The inventory numbers use past sales rates (I use 12 months) and current inventory to come up with a measure of activity in the market. Basically, if we could freeze the market and not allow any new listings, this measures how many months it would take to sell all of the homes currently on the market. An active, healthy market is usually has around 6 months of inventory.
First let’s look at inventory by area. Much of our market is healthy. Our sales have slowed but there are fewer homes on the market. Louisville, Lafayette, Longmont and Superior are all right around six months of inventory. Healthy, not an overabundance of homes going unsold. Boulder is a little higher at around eight months and the suburban mountains and plains come in at 13 and 11.5 months. The most current figures are represented by the green line.
Looking at this same issue but by price range tells an interesting story. For a number of reasons the lower end of our market is moving much quicker than our high end. Inventory really shows the dramatic difference between the lower end of the market and the high end. Properties below $250,000 have a 4.25 month supply (very healthy); homes between $250,000 and $500,000 have a 5.71 month supply (right where it should be); homes between $500,000 and $750,000 have a 10 month supply (a bit high but not terrible); between $750,000 and $1,000,000 have a 14.4 month supply; homes between $1,000,000 and $1,500,000 have a 22.7 month supply (almost 2 years) and the 230homes listed above $1,500,000 have a 48 month supply. The highest priced homes having a four year supply might sound just awful but compare it to a year ago when this same price range came in at over 70 months! Again the most recent data is in green.
Remember that all of the current homes on the market do not sell. Four years is not an estimated time on the market. If you have a good house and price it right it will sell much quicker. The average day’s on the market is around 100 days and some are going much quicker. If you are serious about selling give me a call and we can run the numbers for your house.
by neil kearney | Mar 16, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
There seems to be some increased activity in the Boulder Colorado real estate market. Spring is coming and March is usually a month when we see more listings and more sales. A gradual lead-up to April and May which are traditionally our top months for activity. ‘More activity’ is a very vague term so I will try to bring some clarity by providing some statistics.
I measure market activity by using both absorption rate (also called inventory) and under contract ratio. Today in part one we will look at under contract ratio. Simply put, this is the percentage of homes active on the market that are under contract. The higher the percentage the more activity there is in any given area or price range. The chart below shows the percentage across different areas in our market. The levels have decreased in all areas when compared to last year.
This next chart shows the under contract percentage by price range. This is very interesting because from my chair it seems like the lower priced homes are moving. The statistics confirm this; 15% of homes under $250,000 are under contract while just 3% of homes above $1.5 Million are under contract.
Homes are selling but we are not up to a normal level in most price ranges. Spring activity may bring us back to where we would expect but it would certainly take increased volume at all price levels, not just the lower levels.
In part 2 I will discuss the inventory levels in all areas and price ranges.
by neil kearney | Feb 27, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics, Uncategorized |
In the latest home price index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Boulder County was listed in the top 20 of the 292 largest metro areas for annual appreciation for the period ended December 21, 2008. Boulder’s annual appreciation was listed as 2.99% while the U.S. as a whole had a depreciation of 8.27%. Colorado was ranked 17th with a annual depreciation of 2.61%. Prices fell in 44 states plus Washington D.C..
The graph below shows Boulder’s appreciation compared to the U.S.’s over the past 11 quarters. It is interesting to see the negative trend of the nation as a whole compared to our relatively steady rate. It is important to know that the national trend is not true in Boulder Colorado.
The top 20 areas for appreciation are mostly in the Southeastern U.S. including; Alabama, Texas and South Carolina. The top metro area for appreciation over the past year was Decatur, AL with a 6.58% increase.
The bottom 20 areas for appreciation continue to be exclusively in California, Florida and Nevada. The town that has been hardest hit over the past year was Merced, CA at -49.50%.
Delving a bit deeper I looked at the 5 year returns. Remember that the Boulder area did not have a big run-up in home prices during the early 2000’s like many areas that are now falling did. Over the past 5 years Boulder has gained 16%. This ranks us 192nd out of 292 MSA’s. Areas like Merced had a run up but are now down 33% over 5 years. The most appreciation over the past 5 years was in Wanatchee, WA at 75%.
by neil kearney | Feb 16, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics, Uncategorized
I am starting to see more signs of activity in the market. More homes have gone under contract and the number of showings continue to climb. As I study the daily market updates I get at my desk, I notice that most of the activity is in the lower price ranges.
Just this weekend 17 homes went under contract in Boulder County. Fifteen of these homes are priced $335,000 or under. Of the two higher priced sales one is listed for $499,000 and the other is listed for $3,379,000. The later is a rarity. Currently there are 74 homes listed in Boulder County for $2.5 million or higher. Of those 5 are under contract. I have been showing a few of these homes and there are some beautiful homes out there.
I have established that the lower end of the price spectrum is getting most of the activity; but what of prices? I just ran a quick analysis that shows that prices are holding pretty well. I compared the median and average price of homes that are currently under contract to those of homes that have sold over the past twelve months. In order to compare apples-to-apples I adjusted the under contract price by the average negotiation rate for that area over the past year. Here is what I came up with for price change.
- Boulder – Avg. Price – up 3.3% Median Price – up .24%
- Louisville – Avg. Price – up 5.3% Median Price – up .37%
- Lafayette – Avg. Price – down 1.94% Median Price -down 13.9%
- Longmont – Avg. Price – down 5.02% Median Price – up .56%
- Superior – Avg. Price – down .97% Median Price – up 5.9%
- Plains – Avg. Price – up 25.67% Median Price – up 11.88%
- Mountains Avg. Price – down 2.3% Median Price – up 15.11%
These numbers are based on what has actually been selling. In order to get an offer homes must be in good condition and priced about right. Those that are in poor condition or are overpriced do not have much of a shot in today’s market conditions. Call me for an honest assessment of your homes current value. Neil 303-818-4055
by neil kearney | Feb 6, 2009 | Statistics |
Sales of single family homes in Boulder County dropped 28% compared to last January. There were 110 sales during the month. This represents the lowest total since I began tracking this monthly data in 2004. In addition to the single family sales there were 28 attached dwellings which closed during the month.
At the end of the month 13.4% of active listings were under contract. The graph below shows how that compares to the past. But to get the full story you must also consider the number of homes on the market. So let’s do some quick math; last January there were 2,011 homes on the market and 17% were under contract = 294 homes under contract. This year there are only 1,637 homes on the market and 13.4% of those homes are under contract = 193 homes under contract. It is clear that our market has contracted. How much and for how long is the question. People are cutting back on major purchases for now and houses are no exception.
by neil kearney | Jan 22, 2009 | Statistics
The inventory of existing homes in the United States has reached 11 months. This means that it would take 11 months to sell all of the active listings currently on the market given the sales rate for the last 12 months.
The Boulder area is doing much better than the nation as a whole. In the City of Boulder our inventory is currently at just under 6 months. Louisville is at 3.5 months. The areas with the highest inventory rates are the close-in mountains at 12 months and the suburban plains at just under 10 months. All of these figures are lower than they were approximately a year ago. Sales have fallen but the number of homes on the market have fallen even more. The chart below shows the year-to-year comparison across some local markets.
Just yesterday I spoke with a financial planner from Maui. His client owns a condo in Boulder and he was gathering information about our market so that he could advise her on what she should do with her Boulder investment. As I gave him the details he was amazed by the stability of our market. Steady prices, falling inventory, good rental demand and few foreclosures right in Boulder all pointed toward stability and a quick recovery.
The weather has been great lately and the buyers are starting to come out again. I’m hoping for some early momentum this year to ride us through until the national financial crisis lifts. If you are starting to feel like you want to make a move, don’t feel bad. You are not alone. Many people are realizing that this is a good time to make a move. If this is you – I’d be happy to help you. Good information is a great ally in this market and I’ve got it. 303-818-4055
