Boulder Real Estate Inventory and Activity

by neil kearney | Sep 28, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics

We have seen a bit of a surge in the market over the past week or so.  A few buyers are making the plunge and putting in offers on homes.  I don’t think it will be a big up-tick once it all settles out but we are still in a similar range of market activity (measured by contracts and closings) that we have been in since June.  Roughly 60 to 80 homes go under contract during an average week.

Here are some fun facts about the real estate market in Boulder County.

• 13% of listings in Boulder are under contract.
• 22% of listings in Superior are under contract.
• 16% of listings between $250k and $500k are under contract.
• 2.5% of listings over $1.5 million are under contract.
• Overall there is about 9 months of inventory on the market right now.
• In the mountains there is a 20 month supply of homes.

Boulder County Real Estate Statisics – August 2010

by Neil Kearney | Sep 9, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics

Real estate sales in Boulder County were again less than stellar during August.  The statisics show that sales were down by roughly 20% when compared to last August.  The market softened in early summer and it has yet to recover.  Sales are still taking place but the activity has decreased.

Thus far, 2010 has been a very interesting year.  The year started with a bang as the homebuyer tax stimulus, low interest rates and the first signs of economic recovery brought buyers out of a prolonged hibernation.  Starting in January, year-over-year sales showed strong increases.  Through April, cumulative sales had surpassed 2009’s numbers by 34%.  Then the market developed a leak (metaphorically).  As the last chimes sounded at midnight on April 30th so to did the fuel which was feeding the market.  As the tax credit expired on April 30th 26.4% of all homes on the market in Boulder County were under contract.  A robust number representing strong market activity.

Since May 1 we have noticed two major trends.  The first was that activity dropped right away, the deadline was hard and eligible buyers, move-up and first time were both apparently a big part of the market.  The number of contracts written dropped 44% in one week.  From record highs to below average in one fell swoop.  The other trend was a trailing trend; the number of closings.  While April was the high point for contracts written, June was the apex of closings for 2010.  As the reports of sales (closings) continued to give good news the actual activity in the market had slowed considerably. During July the number of closings dropped considerably.  Down 35% from last month and 40% from July of 2009.  Our early year-over-year gains seem to be fading as the increase is only 8% through July.

Values have been holding fairly strong given fewer sales.  According to FHFA.gov Boulder County had an annual appreciation rate of -1.92% ending June 2010.  This ranked us in the top quartile nationally.  The greater Denver market is considered one of the stronger real estate markets in the country.  I guess it is all relative and we have much to be thankful for.

Here are the positives I see in the market.

Interest rates are at all time lows.  4.5% is an amazing rate for the long term.  These low fixed rates allow you to lock in affordability for 30 years.  Some are deciding not to buy because they will need to sell their home for less then they think it’s worth.  Yes, that is a possibility.  But right now you can also buy your next house on sale and at an interest rate that compounds the good deal.

Boulder County is a dynamic area.  Our employment rate is very strong and looking forward we areHawk going to add population by adding jobs in the renewable energy and technology sector.  Combine increased population with almost no builder inventory and you have a very responsive supply/demand equation.  We are already seeing incoming relocations and as they increase with the economy our supply of homes on the market will decrease.  This will eventually lead to an increase in prices.

Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) are less than 10% of our market.  Many markets around the country have a majority of their sales in the distressed category.  This unnatural supply, not to mention the lack of move-up buyers, causes negative price pressure.  In Boulder County distressed sales are not a big part of the market.  This will allow for a quick recovery.

There are some good values in the market right now and when you combine that with the low interest rates this is one of the best times ever to buy real estate.  It goes against the popular media but you will thank yourself in the future.  Let me know how I can be of service.

(The hawk has nothing to do with the post, I was out looking at the fire area from a lookout east of Boulder today and was lucky enough to take this shot.  I thought I would share it.)

Boulder County Home Appreciation – How We Compare

by neil kearney | Aug 25, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics

FHFA.gov just released their Home Appreciation Index for the second quarter of 2010.  I’m always interested in this report as it gives a good outside comparison to see how home values are doing right here in Boulder County.  The report computes home appreciation based upon same house sales.  That is, when a house sells they go back and research what that exact home sold for in the past.  This method gives a good indication of what prices are actually doing in any given area over time.

For the four quarters ending on June 30, 2010 homes in Boulder County lost 1.92% on average.  Out of the approximately 300 areas that they track Boulder ranks 72nd in appreciation.  In other words, Boulder area real estate has done better than 75% of the other areas in the United States.

On a wider level, average appreciation for the year ending June 30th was -1.6%.  Colorado ranked 14th among states with a yearly appreciation of -.25%.  Interestingly, California, after a few years of large price depreciation is back on top home appreciation among states with a yearly appreciation of 2.9%.

The graphs below shows home appreciation in Boulder County over time compared to the United States and Boulder County’s national ranking over time.

Just in case you are interested in the areas of the country that are doing the best and worst right now in terms of home appreciation here are the top and bottom 10.

Top Ten Areas for Home Appreciation for Period Ending June 30, 2010:

1. Springfield, IL – 2.68%
2. Dubuque, IA – 2.41%
3. San Jose- Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA – 1.89%
4. Santa Ana – Anaheim – Irvine, CA – 1.45%
5. Huntington-Ashland, WV, KY, OH – 1.4%
6. Kennewick – Pasco – Richland, WA – 1.36%
7. Houma – Bayou – Cane – Thibodaux, LA – 1.31%
8. Buffalo – Niagra Falls, NY – 1.3%
9. Sioux City, IA, SD, NE – 1.16%
10. Cedal Rapids, IA – .94%

Bottom 10 Areas for Home Appreciation for Period Ending June 30, 2010:

303.  Bend, OR –  -18.59%

302.  Ocala, FL –  -18.55%

301.  Madera – Chowchilla, CA – -17.64%

300.  Lakeland – Winter Haven, FL –  -17.61%

299.  Reno – Sparks, NV –  -17.31%

298.  Orlando – Kissimmee – Sanford, FL – -16.11%

297.  Lake Havasu City – Kingman, AZ –  -15.09

296.  Deltona – Daytona Beach – Ormond Beach, FL –  -14.98%

295.  Port St. Lucie, FL –  -14.42%

294.  Las Vegas – Paradise, NV –  -13.94%

While home appreciation is not the only indicator of the health of any given real estate market, it does give a good indication of what is going on.  To me it looks like the extremes are not quite so divergent and some areas which have been hit by large depreciation don’t have so much to give.  We still have a ways to go toward recovery.  After all, this is only the 9th quarter in which the United States has every seen home depreciation.  It just so happens that it has been 9 quarters in a row.

Boulder County home appreciation, although at -1.92% is fairly benign given that homes have appreciated by 4.72% over the past five years.

Boulder Real Estate Market Activity

by neil kearney | Aug 19, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics | 3 comments

The summer is winding down.  The kids are back in school.  The nights are a bit cooler.  The commonly held belief is that summer is the best time to sell a home.  That might have once been the case but we have seen a shift.  Late spring seems to be when the most buyers are shopping for homes.  Typically, the most contracts are written in May and the most closings come in June.  Some years this shifts a bit but for most years this is the typical pattern.

During the past few years I have found mid-July to mid-August to be quite slow.  Vacations and varied activities seem to get in the way of serious house hunting.  I have also found that once school starts we have a bit of a fall surge that lasts through the end of October.  Maybe this past week signaled the beginning of the “surge”.

This past week 88 contracts were written and accepted in Boulder County.  This represents the most since we had 98 the last week in May.  This year our top weeks for contracts accepted were the final weeks in April when we averaged 155 contracts per week.

The interest rates are still great!  This means that as a buyer of Boulder real estate you can comfortably afford more home.  Let me know how I can be of service.

July 2010 – Boulder Real Estate Statisics

by neil kearney | Aug 5, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics | 1 comment

Real Estate Sales Dip Sharply In July

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The numbers are in for July and they aren’t pretty.  Many wondered if the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit had an impact on the market and I can now say emphatically, yes!  Real Estate sales in July dropped 40% compared to July in 2009 for all residential properties and 26% for single family homes.  Quite a drop for mid-summer.  As you might recall the original deadline to close on tax credit eligible transactions was June 30th.  This deadline led to a pretty serious hangover in July.

How do we look going forward?  Good question.  From what I can see, we have stabilized for the moment and have drawn a new baseline of activity (not great but acceptable).  This will change when one of the following happens: interest rates change (once the signal is given that 4-5% interest rates are on the way out buyers will hurry to take advantage) and true, widespread economic recovery.  In my view the economy has been sideways for a long time.  Not a lot of hiring, spending or investing going on and not much will change in the Boulder area real estate market until we see real improvement in the economy.

For historical Boulder Real Estate Statistics check out my statistics tab.