by Neil Kearney | Apr 29, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends
One year ago this week I thought it would be cool to get a sense for the market activity on a weekly basis. Every Thursday morning for a year I have done a specific search which identifies the specific activity in the real estate market in Boulder County. During the past year there have been 8,304 new listings, 7,808 price reductions, 5,642 homes go under contract and 4,181 homes get to the closing table. The graph below shows two of those categories on a weekly basis; the number that went under contract and the number that sold.
When a house goes under contract it becomes a leading indicator of a future closing. But from the data over the past year it appears that a quarter of all homes that go under contract do no make it to the closing table.
The trend this year has been pretty clean since the first of January. Our trend for increased sales is still on an upward trajectory. It will be interesting to see what the next few weeks have in store since the tax credit stimulus expires tomorrow.
by neil kearney | Apr 23, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends |
Now this feels like spring! The birds are chirping, the flowers are blooming and houses are selling. 
Sales of single family homes in March were up 41% and sales of attached dwellings were up 37% compared with the same month last year. For the first quarter, total sales in Boulder County were up just about 25% from Q1 2009. This is great news, much needed and a boost to the industry and the collective confidence of the community of would be home buyers and home sellers. Of course the tax credit has boosted the results quite a bit.
Prices continue to be a mixed bag. Overall, the median prices for homes in the area are down a few percentage points, but the number can vary widely depending upon area and price range. Homes in the entry level price ranges for each of our local areas tend to be doing well; lots of activity and prices holding steady. Homes in the upper price ranges have not widely participated in the recent rally. Many owners of homes in the luxury segment have had to make drastic price reductions in order to garner interest from prospective buyers.
Here are a few interesting statistics that show the disparity between price ranges in our local market. All statistics are from IRES and include property throughout Boulder County.
| Price Range |
Inventory in Months |
| $0 – $250,000 |
7.5 |
| $250,001 – $500,000 |
8.1 |
| $500,001 – $750,000 |
12.1 |
| $750,001 – $1,000,000 |
21.2 |
| $1,000,001 – $1,500,000 |
29.0 |
| $1,500,001 and above |
39.4 |
Inventory in months is also known as absorption rate. It is a measure that compares the number of homes on the market in any given segment to how quickly those homes have been recently selling. This table shows a clear correlation between price and absorption rate. As price range increases you would expect it to take longer for a home to sell.
| First Quarter Sales |
|
|
|
|
| |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
1 year change |
| $0 – $250,000 |
316 |
228 |
275 |
21% |
| $250,001 – $400,000 |
255 |
178 |
199 |
12% |
| $400,001 – $800,000 |
212 |
122 |
200 |
64% |
| $800,001 – $1.2 MM |
37 |
20 |
20 |
0% |
| Greater than $1.2 MM |
29 |
15 |
11 |
-27% |
| Combined |
849 |
563 |
705 |
25% |
As mentioned above, total sales in Boulder County increased roughly 25% during the first quarter (compared with Q1 2009). An easy assumption would be that sales have improved across all price ranges. So far this year this is not the case. The largest increases in sales were seen between $400,000 and $800,000 where an improvement of 64% was recorded. Between $800,000 and $1.2 million there was no change and for homes above $1.2 million there was actually a decrease of 27% in the number of sales during the first quarter. Clearly the recovery has not yet reached the top end.
by Neil Kearney | Apr 13, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
I am in the midst of preparing for a market analysis of a large home and found the following information of interest. Compared to first quarter 2009, sales in Boulder County are up 25% in total. But looking a little more closely gives an interesting insight. Sales of properties $250,000 and below are up 21%. Sales of properties between $250,000 and $400,000 are up 12%. Sales of properties priced between $400,000 and $800,000 are up 64%. Sales between $800,000 and $1.2 million are exactly the same as they were last year. And finally, despite the increase in overall activity, sales of properties priced above $1.2 million are down 27% from first quarter 2009 and down 62% from 2008.
The market is recovering and we are seeing good activity in the market, but luxury buyers are for the most part still sitting on their wallets.
This information is presented graphically along with first quarter sales by area below.
http://viewer.docstoc.com/
Boulder County First Quarter Sales
by neil kearney | Apr 5, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Real estate sales in Boulder County during March 2010 were very strong. After a few months of good activity in the market (showings, contracts, calls, etc.) with no appreciable increase in sales, March provided the measurable results I had been expecting.
Total sales in Boulder County, including both single family residential and condos/townhomes, were up 42% compared to March 2009. This pulled the year-to-date sales up to a 19.7% increase compared to the first quarter of 2009.
Single family sales were up even more dramatically. For the month, sales increased 49%!
Median prices during the first three months are up compared to the first three months of last year, but this is too small a sample to make any comprehensive statement on prices.
It seems that the sales are not just confined to the entry level and that activity is being seen in all areas of the market.
The slide show below shows the comparative statistics for Boulder County on a monthly basis. For best results view the slide show “full screen” (hit the button with the four arrows pointing to the corners).
http://viewer.docstoc.com/
March 2010 Statistics
by Neil Kearney | Apr 5, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Real estate sales in Boulder County during March 2010 were very strong. After a few months of good activity in the market (showings, contracts, calls, etc.) with no appreciable increase in sales, March provided the measurable results I had been expecting.
Total sales in Boulder County, including both single family residential and condos/townhomes, were up 42% compared to March 2009. This pulled the year-to-date sales up to a 19.7% increase compared to the first quarter of 2009.
Single family sales were up even more dramatically. For the month, sales increased 49%!
Median prices during the first three months are up compared to the first three months of last year, but this is too small a sample to make any comprehensive statement on prices.
It seems that the sales are not just confined to the entry level and that activity is being seen in all areas of the market.
The slide show below shows the comparative statistics for Boulder County on a monthly basis. For best results view the slide show “full screen” (hit the button with the four arrows pointing to the corners).
http://viewer.docstoc.com/
March 2010 Statistics
by neil kearney | Mar 29, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
The prime conditions for an early selling season were just starting to take hold during February. The
continuation of the Homebuyers Tax Credit and amazingly low interest rates have converged to give would-be buyers a “kick in the pants”. All of the activity (remember last January and February?) so far this year has translated into just a 5% jump in closings compared to the first two months of 2009. But I can feel that there is more mass to this activity than what has shown up thus far at the closing table. To give you a bit of a preview, as I write this in late March, the number of closings has jumped 17% from the same time period a year ago.
Good news all around, but does it have an expiration date? Is April 30th the date when the carriage turns back into a pumpkin? Let’s look at a the two sides of this question.
If the tax credit is not extended in some capacity we will see a sharp drop off in the sales of entry level homes. It is inevitable, we have been borrowing sales from the future and when the incentive ends I suspect we will have a bit of a hangover which will dampen the momentum we have seen recently.
Another possibility is the extension of the Homebuyer Tax Credit but with a smaller credit. For example instead of an $8,000 credit for first time buyers, the credit would be reduced to $6,000 for the next three months and then stepped down again to $4,000 and again to $2,000 and then phased out. A similar stepped down approach could be implemented for the move-up credit, which currently stands at $6,500. The tax credit has helped bolster sales but it hasn’t been the end-all solution that some thought it might be. The truth of the matter is that if someone doesn’t have a job, the credit or the confidence to buy a house a tax credit doesn’t mean much. As we move slowly out of recession, the economic principles which lead people to move (new jobs, promotions, transfers) will naturally increase the activity in the market. This along with a tax credit will have a broader impact. An extension of the Homebuyer Tax Credit has not been announced and I don’t expect it would be until very close to the end of April. At this point this type of thought is just speculation and it is too early to tell. However, it certainly is not too early to start lobbying for the support of such a program by contacting your representatives in Washington DC.
Now so that we don’t get too far off the subject, here are a few statistics.
- Absorption Rate – This measures the current inventory as well as how quickly homes have been selling in any given market. You find absorption rate by finding the average number of homes that sell each month and then dividing that number into the total of homes currently on the market. I use an entire year of sales to find the average monthly sales rate because it smoothes out seasonality. Others use a shorter period of time. The result of the equation is the number of months it would take, given the current sales rate to sell the entire current inventory. Here is the absorption rate for Boulder County by price range.
$0 – $249,999 = 6.51 months
$250,000 – $499,999 = 7.8 months
$500,000 – $749,999 = 10.5 months
$750,000 – $999,999 = 22.5 months
$1,000,000 – $1,249,999 = 18.5 months
$1,250,000 – $1,499,999 = 48 months
$1,500,000 and above = 37.6 months
- So far in 2010 there have been 602 sales of single family and attached dwellings in Boulder County. 79% of those properties have sold for less than $499,999. Here is the breakdown of what has sold and the percentage of the market by price range.
$0 – $249,999 = 235 Sold (39%)
$250,000 – $499,999 = 246 Sold (40%)
$500,000 – $749,999 = 88 Sold (15%)
$750,000 – $999,999 = 16 Sold (2%)
$1,000,000 – $1,249,999 = 6 Sold (1%)
$1,250,000 – $1,499,999 = 2 Sold (<1%)
$1,500,000 and above = 9 Sold (2%)
