This infographic was created by the good people at ActiveRain which is an online social space for Realtors. It is the result of a survey of real estate agents from around the country. The consensus for 2012 are that; the number of transactions will increase, real estate values will be flat, home starts (new construction) will increase slightly, and that local economies will start to improve. Looking from the local perspective I can’t argue with any of these predictions.
As noted in the report, the Denver market is predicted to be one of the 10 best in the country so that is great news for Boulder County. We should continue to out perform the national market.
According to the survey, the biggest challenges facing the real estate market are:
Short sales and underwater mortgages.
Homebuyer inability to get a loan.
Foreclosures and the abundance of shadow inventory.
The only item that has real relevance to the Boulder market in any significant way is #2. It is still difficult to get a loan even with low interest rates.
The Boulder County real estate market is humming along. But it seems we are running a bit lean in one cylinder. It takes both buyers and sellers to make a market and right now buyers are out in force but sellers are still in winter hibernation mode.
If you are thinking about selling your home in 2012 there may be no better time than right NOW. Currently in the City of Boulder 29% of all listings are under contract. In Louisville and Lafayette nearly 40% of listed homes have already found a buyer. These are really high numbers and not surprisingly there are multiple offers happening. Buyers are problably wondering what the heck is happening.
Homer: “Marge I thought this was a buyers market. Do you still think we can buy this house for a 40% discount?”
Marge: “I don’t know Homie, we have missed out on three homes already.”
Lisa: “Mom and Dad, wake up and get with the program or we will never buy a house.”
This situation doesn’t mean that the market is back. We still have some recovering to do and one big piece of the puzzle is for sellers to show confidence in the market by listing their homes.
The video below gives a complete update of the market throughout Boulder County.
Loan delinquency rate is a canary in the mine shaft, a harbinger of things to come. And in Boulder it is good news! Loan delinquency is the first step toward foreclosure. In a recent ranking of the lowest delinquency rates released by CoreLogic, Boulder ranked number one. The list below shows the ten markets nationwide which have the lowest rate of delinquency. The list is shown alphabetically but if you look at the numbers, Boulder has the lowest rate at 2.02%.
Click here for a related post about the percentage of foreclosures in different areas throughout Boulder County.
2012 has started in many ways just like it has over the past two years. This year it seems that there is a lot of early activity in the market. In fact, at the end of January, 21.5% of all listings were under contract. This represents a 7% increase from the same time period a year ago. Closed sales during January were just about equal to last year. The number of homes that went under contract during the month were within a few properties as well.
So does this mean that we are primed to have a similar year in the Boulder real estate market? My prediction is that sales will increase this year. Not a huge jump but an increase nonetheless. There have been many people thinking about making a move and this year is a great year to take advantage of low interest rates while they last. If you have a home to sell, the good news is that there is activity in the market. The bad news is that buyers are as picky as ever and will only buy homes that are in good shape and are perceived as a good value.
This slideshow highlights 4 years of sales data and shows many of the long term trends we have been seeing in the Boulder County real estate market. I welcome your questions and comments.
I define the luxury market in Boulder County to be homes over $1 million. Luxury homes make up approximately 3.5% of the total market in Boulder County (based on 2011 sales).
The number of sales of all homes in Boulder County was down 2.6% during 2011 while the sales of properties over $1,000,000 was up 6%. This is an unexpected statistic for many because the assumption is when sales are down luxury sales will reflect a compounded decline. This post will give you the information you need to interpret the luxury home segment in Boulder County.
Sales Trends:
As you can see from the graph, million dollar sales in the Boulder area have not always been a big part of the market. During the 2000’s we saw many new luxury properties built and many existing homes remodeled into the luxury category. During this time frame we also had a new category of luxury property take hold in Boulder; downtown luxury condominiums.
Price Range Mix:
The graph above shows the luxury home market split up into smaller segments. Sales for 2010 and 2011 are recorded for each $250,000 segment. You can see that the majority of the sales in the Boulder County luxury home market take place below $1.5 million.
Negotiation:
The average negotiation off of list price for all homes that closed in 2011 was 4.1%. So for example if you had your home listed for $400,000 you could reasonably expect your home to sell for $383,600. These past few years showed an interesting trend; as the price range increased the average negotiation increased as well. For homes that sold for over $1 million the average negotiation off of the last list price was 7.67%. For the 24 homes that sold above $2 million last year, the average negotiation was 11.11%.
If you are interested in selling or purchasing a fine home in Boulder County I think you will find that my experience, knowledge and marketing methods are well suited in serving you.
Word is getting out through the media on why Colorado is a great place to buy real estate right now.
People want to live here!!
We have not had a real estate bust. (See the graph below)
Low foreclosure rate. We don’t need to wade through tons of short sales and REO sales in order to start moving forward.
Strong economy with a young motivated work force who want to stay in Colorado.
Low inventory – new building started slowing in 2003 not in 2007 or 2008. There is not a stockpile of homes to sell.
But don’t take it from me. Watch this video from Fox Business News
This chart shows median prices in Boulder Colorado from 2000 to 2011. Small corrections but no collapse. We have a strong market with very few distressed sales. We should be one of the first areas to see a full recovery. For more graphs for communities like Louisville, Superior and Erie see this post.
