by neil kearney | Mar 30, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Colorado Lifestyle
So far this year (at the tone it will be March 30th 4:13 pm) there have been 520 sales in Boulder County listed through the MLS. Currently there are 472 properties with contracts in place. So far 1,984 buyers or sellers have gotten the good news that they are moving forward on their goal. While we may not be setting any records so far this year, there is activity and when you get caught up in the statistics you can lose site that each time a property closes it allows one owner to move on and another to start a new life in a new home. This business is about putting the two together. Actually, we are seeing more activity in the market, buyers are out buying and sellers are listing their homes. In order for either to be successful they must be realistic, flexible and go into negotiation with a win-win attitude.
By the end of the week I will be able to report on the first quarter sales activity. I have a feeling that we will be down both in volume and price. Not that values are falling so much, it’s that lower priced homes are selling. Below is a rare scene this winter – sledding at Scott Carpenter Park.
by neil kearney | Mar 23, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends
Despite reports to the contrary, the real estate market is still moving. It is much different than it has been in the past but unlike stocks and bonds everyone needs a place to live. You may be curious to who is buying and selling in today’s market. Here are the six major groups I see as factors in today’s market:
- Distressed – These are the victims. The buzzwords that characterize this group are; foreclosure, short sale, negative equity, escalating ARM payments, unemployment, bankruptcy etc. This group is selling, getting out, moving on. A large percentage of these homes have been lost and are now being marketed as bank-owned properties. This is a tough group to work with, there are no easy answers when you owe 25% more than a house is worth.
- Uncomfortable But Making It– These people are making it, but just barely. These are the people who see the writing on the wall and want to avoid becoming a distressed seller. Many times these are the lucky one’s, they have a bit of savings or some equity in their house. These people want to sell before they lose their job or before their savings are diminished.
- Self-Realized– This is a time of self-introspection. The questions people are asking right now include: ‘Am I going to have enough to retire?’, ‘Do I need this much space?’, ‘Is this where I want to be?’. As a result we are seeing people buy and sell homes based on a change in thought. People have awoken to the realization that they can make do with less. These people are downsizing and selling second homes. There is not a real urgency to these situations, but once the decision is made it is time to get started.
- Constant Change – Change is the true engine that fuels the real estate industry and right now this has never been more true. People move because of divorce, job changes, new children, children moving out, parents moving in, and on and on. The current economy has stirred up the pot and brought more change. Along with financial stresses come relationship strain and forced job changes. These pressures bring on the need to move.
- Business As Usual – The vast majority of people still have jobs, don’t see any big changes coming and may want to move. They aren’t forced to do anything but think it would be nice.
- Opportunists– This is a wonderful time to buy a home, maybe the best I have seen in my 17 years in the business. Interest rates are amazingly low, sellers are willing to deal and in many parts of the country houses have come down in value. The opportunists are the people who are positioned to take advantage of the housing crisis. These are the investors who have cash, the first time home buyers who have their act together and the move-up buyers who see a great opportunity with an expiration date.
The only constant of any market is change and the job of any Realtor worth their salt is to keep up with that change and be the constant source of honest answers. I am here and ready to guide you through whatever situation you find yourself in and help make the best of it. That is what being a professional is all about.
by neil kearney | Mar 18, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
More on the real estate market in Boulder County. Last time I presented the current under contract ratio numbers. Today I will present the inventory or absorption rate. The inventory numbers use past sales rates (I use 12 months) and current inventory to come up with a measure of activity in the market. Basically, if we could freeze the market and not allow any new listings, this measures how many months it would take to sell all of the homes currently on the market. An active, healthy market is usually has around 6 months of inventory.
First let’s look at inventory by area. Much of our market is healthy. Our sales have slowed but there are fewer homes on the market. Louisville, Lafayette, Longmont and Superior are all right around six months of inventory. Healthy, not an overabundance of homes going unsold. Boulder is a little higher at around eight months and the suburban mountains and plains come in at 13 and 11.5 months. The most current figures are represented by the green line.
Looking at this same issue but by price range tells an interesting story. For a number of reasons the lower end of our market is moving much quicker than our high end. Inventory really shows the dramatic difference between the lower end of the market and the high end. Properties below $250,000 have a 4.25 month supply (very healthy); homes between $250,000 and $500,000 have a 5.71 month supply (right where it should be); homes between $500,000 and $750,000 have a 10 month supply (a bit high but not terrible); between $750,000 and $1,000,000 have a 14.4 month supply; homes between $1,000,000 and $1,500,000 have a 22.7 month supply (almost 2 years) and the 230homes listed above $1,500,000 have a 48 month supply. The highest priced homes having a four year supply might sound just awful but compare it to a year ago when this same price range came in at over 70 months! Again the most recent data is in green.
Remember that all of the current homes on the market do not sell. Four years is not an estimated time on the market. If you have a good house and price it right it will sell much quicker. The average day’s on the market is around 100 days and some are going much quicker. If you are serious about selling give me a call and we can run the numbers for your house.
by neil kearney | Mar 16, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
There seems to be some increased activity in the Boulder Colorado real estate market. Spring is coming and March is usually a month when we see more listings and more sales. A gradual lead-up to April and May which are traditionally our top months for activity. ‘More activity’ is a very vague term so I will try to bring some clarity by providing some statistics.
I measure market activity by using both absorption rate (also called inventory) and under contract ratio. Today in part one we will look at under contract ratio. Simply put, this is the percentage of homes active on the market that are under contract. The higher the percentage the more activity there is in any given area or price range. The chart below shows the percentage across different areas in our market. The levels have decreased in all areas when compared to last year.
This next chart shows the under contract percentage by price range. This is very interesting because from my chair it seems like the lower priced homes are moving. The statistics confirm this; 15% of homes under $250,000 are under contract while just 3% of homes above $1.5 Million are under contract.
Homes are selling but we are not up to a normal level in most price ranges. Spring activity may bring us back to where we would expect but it would certainly take increased volume at all price levels, not just the lower levels.
In part 2 I will discuss the inventory levels in all areas and price ranges.
by neil kearney | Feb 27, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics, Uncategorized |
In the latest home price index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Boulder County was listed in the top 20 of the 292 largest metro areas for annual appreciation for the period ended December 21, 2008. Boulder’s annual appreciation was listed as 2.99% while the U.S. as a whole had a depreciation of 8.27%. Colorado was ranked 17th with a annual depreciation of 2.61%. Prices fell in 44 states plus Washington D.C..
The graph below shows Boulder’s appreciation compared to the U.S.’s over the past 11 quarters. It is interesting to see the negative trend of the nation as a whole compared to our relatively steady rate. It is important to know that the national trend is not true in Boulder Colorado.
The top 20 areas for appreciation are mostly in the Southeastern U.S. including; Alabama, Texas and South Carolina. The top metro area for appreciation over the past year was Decatur, AL with a 6.58% increase.
The bottom 20 areas for appreciation continue to be exclusively in California, Florida and Nevada. The town that has been hardest hit over the past year was Merced, CA at -49.50%.
Delving a bit deeper I looked at the 5 year returns. Remember that the Boulder area did not have a big run-up in home prices during the early 2000’s like many areas that are now falling did. Over the past 5 years Boulder has gained 16%. This ranks us 192nd out of 292 MSA’s. Areas like Merced had a run up but are now down 33% over 5 years. The most appreciation over the past 5 years was in Wanatchee, WA at 75%.
by neil kearney | Feb 25, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends
Last night’s joint meeting of Boulder’s Planning Board and City Council confirmed plans to pursue mandates on future re-development in the city. The City Council first brought up the issue last spring and has since hired a consultant to study the issue. 
At issue is the redevelopment of small homes into homes that are much larger. Proponents say that the new large homes are changing the character of the neighborhoods. Those opposed to the upcoming mandates claim that their personal property rights are being violated.
The early bet is that this issue will be fought on design issues and Floor Area Ratio’s (FAR). The smaller the FAR, the smaller the house that can built.
The two photos above show two homes in the popular Newland’s neighborhood in North Boulder. The home on the right represents a typical “original” house. These small bungalows are being torn down and being replaced with much larger new homes such as the one on the left. Let’s see what happens, I will keep you posted as the issue moves forward. We may have new regulations in place this summer.
