by neil kearney | Apr 23, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends |
Now this feels like spring! The birds are chirping, the flowers are blooming and houses are selling. 
Sales of single family homes in March were up 41% and sales of attached dwellings were up 37% compared with the same month last year. For the first quarter, total sales in Boulder County were up just about 25% from Q1 2009. This is great news, much needed and a boost to the industry and the collective confidence of the community of would be home buyers and home sellers. Of course the tax credit has boosted the results quite a bit.
Prices continue to be a mixed bag. Overall, the median prices for homes in the area are down a few percentage points, but the number can vary widely depending upon area and price range. Homes in the entry level price ranges for each of our local areas tend to be doing well; lots of activity and prices holding steady. Homes in the upper price ranges have not widely participated in the recent rally. Many owners of homes in the luxury segment have had to make drastic price reductions in order to garner interest from prospective buyers.
Here are a few interesting statistics that show the disparity between price ranges in our local market. All statistics are from IRES and include property throughout Boulder County.
| Price Range |
Inventory in Months |
| $0 – $250,000 |
7.5 |
| $250,001 – $500,000 |
8.1 |
| $500,001 – $750,000 |
12.1 |
| $750,001 – $1,000,000 |
21.2 |
| $1,000,001 – $1,500,000 |
29.0 |
| $1,500,001 and above |
39.4 |
Inventory in months is also known as absorption rate. It is a measure that compares the number of homes on the market in any given segment to how quickly those homes have been recently selling. This table shows a clear correlation between price and absorption rate. As price range increases you would expect it to take longer for a home to sell.
| First Quarter Sales |
|
|
|
|
| |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
1 year change |
| $0 – $250,000 |
316 |
228 |
275 |
21% |
| $250,001 – $400,000 |
255 |
178 |
199 |
12% |
| $400,001 – $800,000 |
212 |
122 |
200 |
64% |
| $800,001 – $1.2 MM |
37 |
20 |
20 |
0% |
| Greater than $1.2 MM |
29 |
15 |
11 |
-27% |
| Combined |
849 |
563 |
705 |
25% |
As mentioned above, total sales in Boulder County increased roughly 25% during the first quarter (compared with Q1 2009). An easy assumption would be that sales have improved across all price ranges. So far this year this is not the case. The largest increases in sales were seen between $400,000 and $800,000 where an improvement of 64% was recorded. Between $800,000 and $1.2 million there was no change and for homes above $1.2 million there was actually a decrease of 27% in the number of sales during the first quarter. Clearly the recovery has not yet reached the top end.
by neil kearney | Apr 15, 2010 | For Sellers
As I was driving through town yesterday I passed this pile of twigs stacked by the side of the road. It made me laugh because a stack of wind blown branches to most is a burden, something to be dealt with which involves a trailer and scratched forearms. But these industrious folks decided that instead of trashing or composting the skinny limbs they would re-brand the lot from trash to treasure. “Free Firewood”! A bit optimistic don’t you think? But in their minds someone might love it and then we wouldn’t have to deal with it. And so it is with real estate.
Sales are up significantly this year but this doesn’t mean that every home out there is in any danger of selling anytime soon. Many sellers over the last few years assumed that just by listing their beloved home their would be a buyer ready willing and able to take over the old homestead for top dollar. When a seller says, “We like it, don’t see anything wrong with it. So we think it should sell for at least as much as the Jones got for theirs.” I start thinking that this could take awhile. Especially when their idea of updated is the new linoleum installed when Jr. graduated from high school.
When demand is high, the best homes get the most attention. But what constitutes “best”? In my mind, a marketable home ranks high in three categories; price, condition of the house and cleanliness.
- Condition of the house has a lot of components which include: regular maintenance, tasteful and modern finishes, neat landscaping, etc. Good condition is something that cannot be pulled together in an afternoon.
- Cleanliness needs to be overdone. It’s not fun to have your house show ready every day but you don’t want your house to be nicknamed “the dirty one” or “the smelly one” by potential buyers. I don’t think I have ever had a buyer pick the “smelly one”.
- Price is very subjective from a sellers standpoint but buyers seem to get it. From a buyers perspective it is all about how one home compares to another and how they all stack up. If the condition or cleanliness don’t stack up buyers will be looking for a lower price. Price seems to solve all objections, the trick is figuring out the mix.
This is where many sellers don’t get it. They have a pile of sticks (figuratively) and they want the same price as a neatly stacked load of cordwood.
by neil kearney | Apr 9, 2010 | Uncategorized
Please take a look at this slideshow. It is a collection of photos taken at 772 Circle Drive Boulder, CO 80302. Kearney Realty has this home listing for $5,900,000 and it is nearly complete. I took these photos this morning and the quality, location and detail of the home is just stunning. Take a look and please let me know what you think. I will have interior photos and landscape photos in a few weeks. For best results view in full screen mode.
http://viewer.docstoc.com/
772 Circle 4/9/2010 –
by neil kearney | Apr 5, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Real estate sales in Boulder County during March 2010 were very strong. After a few months of good activity in the market (showings, contracts, calls, etc.) with no appreciable increase in sales, March provided the measurable results I had been expecting.
Total sales in Boulder County, including both single family residential and condos/townhomes, were up 42% compared to March 2009. This pulled the year-to-date sales up to a 19.7% increase compared to the first quarter of 2009.
Single family sales were up even more dramatically. For the month, sales increased 49%!
Median prices during the first three months are up compared to the first three months of last year, but this is too small a sample to make any comprehensive statement on prices.
It seems that the sales are not just confined to the entry level and that activity is being seen in all areas of the market.
The slide show below shows the comparative statistics for Boulder County on a monthly basis. For best results view the slide show “full screen” (hit the button with the four arrows pointing to the corners).
http://viewer.docstoc.com/
March 2010 Statistics
by neil kearney | Mar 29, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
The prime conditions for an early selling season were just starting to take hold during February. The
continuation of the Homebuyers Tax Credit and amazingly low interest rates have converged to give would-be buyers a “kick in the pants”. All of the activity (remember last January and February?) so far this year has translated into just a 5% jump in closings compared to the first two months of 2009. But I can feel that there is more mass to this activity than what has shown up thus far at the closing table. To give you a bit of a preview, as I write this in late March, the number of closings has jumped 17% from the same time period a year ago.
Good news all around, but does it have an expiration date? Is April 30th the date when the carriage turns back into a pumpkin? Let’s look at a the two sides of this question.
If the tax credit is not extended in some capacity we will see a sharp drop off in the sales of entry level homes. It is inevitable, we have been borrowing sales from the future and when the incentive ends I suspect we will have a bit of a hangover which will dampen the momentum we have seen recently.
Another possibility is the extension of the Homebuyer Tax Credit but with a smaller credit. For example instead of an $8,000 credit for first time buyers, the credit would be reduced to $6,000 for the next three months and then stepped down again to $4,000 and again to $2,000 and then phased out. A similar stepped down approach could be implemented for the move-up credit, which currently stands at $6,500. The tax credit has helped bolster sales but it hasn’t been the end-all solution that some thought it might be. The truth of the matter is that if someone doesn’t have a job, the credit or the confidence to buy a house a tax credit doesn’t mean much. As we move slowly out of recession, the economic principles which lead people to move (new jobs, promotions, transfers) will naturally increase the activity in the market. This along with a tax credit will have a broader impact. An extension of the Homebuyer Tax Credit has not been announced and I don’t expect it would be until very close to the end of April. At this point this type of thought is just speculation and it is too early to tell. However, it certainly is not too early to start lobbying for the support of such a program by contacting your representatives in Washington DC.
Now so that we don’t get too far off the subject, here are a few statistics.
- Absorption Rate – This measures the current inventory as well as how quickly homes have been selling in any given market. You find absorption rate by finding the average number of homes that sell each month and then dividing that number into the total of homes currently on the market. I use an entire year of sales to find the average monthly sales rate because it smoothes out seasonality. Others use a shorter period of time. The result of the equation is the number of months it would take, given the current sales rate to sell the entire current inventory. Here is the absorption rate for Boulder County by price range.
$0 – $249,999 = 6.51 months
$250,000 – $499,999 = 7.8 months
$500,000 – $749,999 = 10.5 months
$750,000 – $999,999 = 22.5 months
$1,000,000 – $1,249,999 = 18.5 months
$1,250,000 – $1,499,999 = 48 months
$1,500,000 and above = 37.6 months
- So far in 2010 there have been 602 sales of single family and attached dwellings in Boulder County. 79% of those properties have sold for less than $499,999. Here is the breakdown of what has sold and the percentage of the market by price range.
$0 – $249,999 = 235 Sold (39%)
$250,000 – $499,999 = 246 Sold (40%)
$500,000 – $749,999 = 88 Sold (15%)
$750,000 – $999,999 = 16 Sold (2%)
$1,000,000 – $1,249,999 = 6 Sold (1%)
$1,250,000 – $1,499,999 = 2 Sold (<1%)
$1,500,000 and above = 9 Sold (2%)
