by neil kearney | Oct 2, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
The market is starting to lose a bit of the summer steam, but not as much as you may think. This past week 87 properties went under contract in the county. This is the low water mark since I started tracking this weekly data in April. End of month closings were strong as usual. There were fewer homes coming on the market (down 18 from last week) but more price reductions. My thought is that the market will continue to perform fairly well through the end of October. At that point a holiday slowdown is normal.
by neil kearney | Oct 1, 2009 | Uncategorized |
WOW! This is an immaculate and inviting townhome with a great location looking out on a private undeveloped area with trees & grass. Gleaming oak floors, stainless steel appliances, great light and in perfect condition. Professionally finished basement includes a half bath, laundry area, & built-in shelving in 3rd bedroom. Bedroom doubles as an awesome home theater with surround sound, mounted projection & a 10 ft. screen (all components included!). Private courtyard is filled with flowers. Located in a golf course community with an easy commute to Boulder or Denver. Busline is a short walk away. This is one of the most attractive townhomes I have seen. Act now and take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit.
by neil kearney | Sep 28, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
A statistic that I have been tracking over the past couple of years in the absorption rate. This is a very theoretical statistic, meaning that the underlying assumptions are flawed, but it is very useful to compare the relative strength of different market segments. There are two flawed premises. The first is that the past is a good indicator for the future (not always true). The other is that the market will stand still until all of the existing properties are sold (absolutely not true).
The goal of finding an absorption rate is to figure out how long it would take to sell all of the existing inventory assuming that sales will continue at their historical rate and that no new listings will come on the market. I look back one year to find the average sales rate. This is a conservative way to do it and others use shorter time horizons and find greater volatility. In the end if you are consistent across the data this statistic tells you how well sales are going. It answers the question; “how long would it take to sell all of the homes on the market”.
The charts below show three years of data for both single family and attached homes in Boulder County. The two variables of the ratio are sales rate and number of homes on the market. The number of homes on the market is very similar to what it was last year and in most cases below where it was two years ago. The increase in the absorbtion rate has everything to do with the decrease of sales over the last few years. This is no surprise to those who have been reading this blog for any amount of time, but it is interesting to see the data across price ranges.
The number of months it would take to sell all active homes is higher in every category when you price range when you compare it to September 2007. When comparing it to a year ago the separation begins above $350,000.
Attached dwellings (condos) have a much tighter dispersion but as makes sense, as the prices rise the longer it would take to sell the inventory.
by neil kearney | Sep 25, 2009 | For Buyers, For Sellers
I write a monthly article for the Boulder Area Realtor Association . I thought I would post it here as well.
We are living in the information age. Some of the information comes to us unsolicited and some we 
actively seek out. We get information via email, websites, newspapers, friends, family, television; the list goes on and on. The problem isn’t enough information, it’s too much information. Many times the information conflicts with other input we have received, and it is up to us to sort through, digest, decide and react to it all.
This syndrome is especially true for information on the real estate market. The consumer is bombarded with a variety of “sources”; national news, their neighbor who has their house on the market and HGTV are just a few examples of how market perceptions are formed. An individual forms their opinion based upon the aggregation of all of this information. Lately the overall opinion has been, well, negative. Let’s be honest, we haven’t had the strongest market lately; sales are down, foreclosures are up, short sales are in the news and consumers have shut down on making large purchases. So what’s wrong, the message matches the reality, right? Wrong!
The myth is that the market has disappeared with the economy and that there are no buyers out there. The myth is that you can get a house for 20% off the list price in Boulder County. The reality is that there is still a market for homes that are very well priced. The reality is that a home needs to be in good condition in order to compete. The reality is that the market is strong for homes that are in areas and price ranges targeted by first-time homeowners. The reality is that there are quick offers and multiple offers out there for homes of sellers who understand and have reacted to the market we are in. The reality is that we are in a market where smart buyers can make a good investment. The reality is that there are many people who would like to move but feel like it is a bad time to do so. The reality is that our prices have been very resilient. The reality is that the real estate market is cyclical and you cannot panic at the bottom or get overly exuberant at the top.
So, what about the statistics? Numbers don’t lie but they do only look one way, backwards. If you focus too much on the fact that sales were down 19% in August from a year ago you lose sight of the fact that there are opportunities in every market. A smart Realtor is the one who sees opportunities in the market and communicates those opportunities to everyone they meet. The market in Bend, OR was a boom town until, all-of-the sudden, prices fell 20%. Now Realtors are super busy helping buyers who love the idea of buying a house at a discount. Everyone needs a place to live, we are not selling widgets. The market for shelter cannot disappear. The numbers are ugly, but that doesn’t mean that the future will follow. Yes, we have some challenges yet to overcome and some hard work ahead, but let’s make sure our personal message to the public includes some of the positive realities of the local market.
by neil kearney | Sep 25, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
|
# New |
Price Drops |
# U/C |
# Sold |
Median $ of Sold |
| 30-Apr |
166 |
142 |
125 |
81 |
$ 317,900 |
| 7-May |
182 |
170 |
141 |
90 |
$ 294,700 |
| 14-May |
211 |
170 |
126 |
46 |
$ 301,950 |
| 21-May |
220 |
169 |
140 |
92 |
$ 275,950 |
| 28-May |
167 |
165 |
137 |
66 |
$ 272,450 |
| 4-Jun |
213 |
204 |
131 |
141 |
$ 324,500 |
| 11-Jun |
210 |
198 |
155 |
74 |
$ 296,400 |
| 18-Jun |
222 |
191 |
125 |
94 |
$ 339,950 |
| 25-Jun |
178 |
223 |
131 |
100 |
$ 339,900 |
| 2-Jul |
163 |
158 |
132 |
150 |
$ 299,000 |
| 9-Jul |
157 |
181 |
102 |
81 |
$ 332,900 |
| 16-Jul |
187 |
197 |
121 |
93 |
$ 289,900 |
| 23-Jul |
166 |
211 |
95 |
92 |
$ 334,450 |
| 30-Jul |
149 |
189 |
109 |
110 |
$ 278,950 |
| 6-Aug |
155 |
197 |
106 |
144 |
$ 312,450 |
| 13-Aug |
161 |
202 |
105 |
84 |
$ 319,975 |
| 20-Aug |
178 |
187 |
120 |
79 |
$ 345,000 |
| 27-Aug |
156 |
163 |
113 |
88 |
$ 317,475 |
| 3-Sep |
138 |
173 |
112 |
103 |
$ 285,000 |
| 10-Sep |
112 |
139 |
100 |
63 |
$ 284,900 |
| 17-Sep |
163 |
159 |
114 |
63 |
$ 317,000 |
| 24-Sep |
143 |
152 |
112 |
74 |
$ 314,500 |
