by neil kearney | Jan 14, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends
Here are the top trends in the Boulder County real estate market as I see them. Some are specific to this area and some have a broader scope.
First let’s discuss 2009:
- Number of sales down 15% countywide.
- Homes below the “median price” are selling. Different prices for different areas, price ranges that are moving in Boulder are considered too high in Longmont.
- Higher priced homes have trouble finding buyers. In December there was a 4 year supply of homes priced over $1.5 million in Boulder County.
- Slow start to the year and then improving as the year progressed. The first quarter was dead – the fourth quarter was not so bad.
- Outside influences included – tight credit, tax credits for first time buyers and low interest rates for conventional loans (up to $417,000).
- Consumer confidence begins a slow return.
- Opportunities in the market – foreclosures, motivated sellers.
Check back in a day or so for my full 2009 market report. This will include statistics for homes sales in Boulder, Louisville, Lafayette, Erie, Longmont, Superior, Suburban Plains and Suburban Mountains. To get the report right to your email send a request to Neil@NeilKearney.com
Here is what I expect for 2010
- Quick start due to extended tax credit and low interest rates. If you are considering a move in 2010, making it happen before April 30th is a good idea.
- Interest rates will rise during the year – most predictions say interest rates will start with a “6” this time next year.
- Foreclosures and short sales will continue to be a large segment of the market.
- Look for more distressed sales in the upper ranges.
- I think 2010 will be a recovery year – heading the right direction. We won’t see a big recovery until jobs come back in droves.
- Look for real estate on the Front Range to recover much more quickly than other areas.
by neil kearney | Jan 12, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
http://viewer.docstoc.com/v2/
Boulder Real Estate Statistics – December 2009 –
Sales of all residential real estate were up 2.2% in December over last year. This marks three straight months of increases. Inventory is creeping up a bit, but I think this is mostly due to the surge of new listings we get after the Holidays. The above presentation includes: sales for single family and condos in Boulder County, Median Price of sales, Under Contract Ratio and Total Inventory.
Coming soon is the 2009 Boulder Real Estate wrap-up.
by neil kearney | Jan 10, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
The City of Louisville, Colorado has been a consistent performer on the local real estate scene. Louisville is a town of roughly 20,000 people located approximately 7 miles northeast of Boulder, Colorado. It has been honored by Money Magazine as the “Best Place to Live” in its size category for two straight years. Whenever I look at comparative statistics such as, under contract percentage or absorption rate (an indication of market flow), Louisville always ranks at, or near the top when compared to the rest of Boulder County.
There were 271 sales (single family, condos, investment) within Louisville during 2009, twelve more than were recorded in 2008. At any given time it is common to find low a inventory of homes on the market and in contrast to its close neighbor, you can find a very nice 3 bedroom home for the median price of $331,000. Median prices have increased every year over the past decade and were up almost 4% during 2009. The rest of Boulder County was down 3% last year.
The absorption rate is a measure of market flow which relates the current inventory to the number of homes that sell during an average month. In Louisville, the absorption rate is approximately 3.5 months. This means that it would take 3.5 months to sell all of the homes currently on the market given the sales rate over the past year (a theoretical study but interesting nonetheless). For comparison the average absorption rate in the City of Boulder is about 6.5 months.
Louisville has much going for it right now but the future looks especially bright. Conoco Phillips is in the process of building a major corporate campus on the old Storage Tek site. This campus’ first phase is scheduled to be completed in 2013 and will bring multiple thousand jobs to the area. If you are interested in making an investment in Louisville Colorado give me a call. All statistics are from data collected from IRES MLS and are compiled by Neil Kearney, Broker/Owner of Kearney Realty Co. Metro Brokers.
by neil kearney | Jan 8, 2010 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
Real estate sales within the city limits of Boulder were more deeply affected by the tough market conditions in 2009 than Boulder County as a whole. Total sales of all types of residential real estate were down 21% within Boulder while the broader market of Boulder County was down 15% when compared to 2008 sales. The main reason why the sales were down more in the city than in the county was price. The median price in the City of Boulder is nearly twice than those in the county as a whole and this year the lower price ranges were selling much better than the higher priced homes. 
Median prices within the City of Boulder for all residential sales was down just 1.8% at a combined price of $393,000. The median price of single family detached homes in the City of Boulder were $525,000. This represents a decrease of 2.4%. For condos the median price for all sales during the year was $242,000; this represents a decrease of 2.8% for the year.
Absorption rate is a statistic which analyzes both inventory and sales. The result of the equation is a number which shows the number of months it would take to sell all of the current inventory given the sales rate over the past year. The charts below show year end absorption rates for both single family homes and condos within Boulder Colorado. The closer you get to zero, the better the market (at least for a seller). Currently, it would take between six and seven months to sell all of the available homes. 
by neil kearney | Jan 5, 2010 | For Sellers
In my hometown, Boulder Colorado, total real estate sales were down roughly 15% in 2009. This was
on top of a 17% decline in 2008. Obviously, buying and selling real estate wasn’t such a good idea in the minds of many people over the past few years. The reasons varied from financial distress, to difficulty in obtaining credit, to paralysis by uncertainty. Whatever the reason, many people put off the age old decision to leave the old nest and strike out for something new.
What has been largely ignored by the majority is that despite the slower market and difficult credit conditions, right now is a great time to buy. Affordability is way up. Affordability is the measure of the percentage of take home pay required to buy a home. In short it is the ability to afford. When interest rates are low and prices are subdued, affordability is high.
Affordability is elusive. It is only for those who dare to stick their necks out a bit to take advantage for the long term. House prices been fairly stable and I don’t predict a huge change in values in 2010 (at least in Boulder County), but there is a very good chance that interest rates could increase substantially before we sing Auld Lang Syne at the end of 2010.
Here is what an increase in interest rates could do to the payment of your next home if you decide to wait. If interest rates increase from 5% to 6.5% on a $417,000 loan (the conventional loan limit), the principle and interest would raise 17% or $397. On a more practical level, a buyer would more likely not pay (or qualify) for the increase in payment and be forced to buy a less expensive home for the same money. Using our example; if the interest rates increased from 5% to 6.5% a buyer would have to purchase a home $73,000 less to keep their payment the same.
Sometimes it pays to take a sacrifice on the front end to reap the long term benefits. If you are waiting for the prospects of selling your home to get better don’t wait too long. By the time you get the price you want on your house the interest rates and home prices will rise and you will be stuck in your second (or third) choice home.
