by neil kearney | Dec 12, 2006 | Statistics
The median price for single family homes in Boulder County is up 4.8% from last year. The statistics are compiled through November 30th from IRES – the Northern Colorado MLS. The chart below shows median price by month. Looking at the chart we can see that there is no “best” time to sell. Although the highest median prices were recorded this year during the summer it is not a significant difference over time. 
The number of sales per month is more seasonal. As you would expect the busiest months for real estate transactions are May – August. Overall, this year the number of sales is down roughly 8% from last year. The months where we saw the most dropoff were April and July. Both of those months saw decreases over 14% year over year. The chart below shows the number of sales in Boulder County by month. Keep in mind that the figures track closings, closings usually take place 30 -45 days after the house is placed under contract. So when it says that January is the slowest month it actually means that December and November have fewer buyers.
by neil kearney | Dec 1, 2006 | Statistics
Locally it is a buyers market and I find that many people are curious about how much negotiation is typical off of a homes list price. I have been tracking this statistic for some time and interestingly, it does not vary all that much. The rule of thumb for many years has been between 2% and 4%. Here are % off list price during November for the past 9 years:
1998 – 2.03%
1999- 2.07%
2000 -1.82%
2001 – 2.85%
2002 – 2.86%
2003 – 3.79%
2004 – 2.85%
2005 – 3.53%
2006 – 3.31%
Obviously there is more negotiation in a Buyers Market than a Sellers market. But when the average days to sale increase during the same time period, like they have since 2000, it means that Buyers are being more picky about what they make offers on. I have also seen Sellers not consider offers in a certain range and then accept the same offer (of lower) after time has passed and they have reduced the asking price. Many buyers resist making an offer on a home they consider overpriced.
by neil kearney | Nov 30, 2006 | Statistics
According to a report released today by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), the appreciation in Boulder County was 1.68% for the past year and .06% for the third quarter.
The OFHEO uses data from sales and appraisals to track actual price appreciation using the data from the same house selling or appraising over time.
Boulder yearly appreciation ranked it 237th out of 275 metropolitan areas. This is a drop from second quarter figures, where Boulder was ranked 218th. Nationally there was a 7.73% increase in prices from 3rd quarter 2005 to 3rd quarter 2006. Many of our Western neighbors lead the nation in 1 year appreciation. Here is the top ten:
- Idaho – 17.52%
- Utah – 17.41%
- Oregon – 16.9%
- Arizona – 16.37%
- Washington – 16.35%
- Florida – 15.11%
- Wyoming – 14.39%
- New Mexico – 14.1%
- Hawaii – 13.33%
- Maryland – 13.19%
by neil kearney | Nov 13, 2006 | Statistics
This past weekend I was out showing property and it again became apparant that a large percentage of the places I was showing were unoccupied. Today I ran the numbers and what I found was surprising. I searched both single family homes and attached dwellings by city.
The table above shows the number of vacant homes, the number of occupied homes and the ratio of vacant to occupied for each of the selected locales. Louisville and Superior have the fewest vacant houses on the market with 25%. Ft. Collins, Longmont and Boulder are the highest with 43%, 42% and 41% respectively.
The figures are even higher for attached dwellings where a full 46% of active listings are vacant. The chart is below.
These numbers are so high for a few reasons. First, since the market for new homes has slowed down, builders have listed their inventory on the MLS. In a market where builders are selling their homes before they are completed they do not list their homes on the MLS. All of these homes are counted as vacant. For example all but 4 of Eries attached dwellings are new construction. Another reason for the vacant listings are landlords cashing out. The past few years have been tough for landlords locally. Rents have been falling and it has not been uncommon to have vacancies between rentals. Many small landlords have had enough and are selling after their last leases are up. The last reason I can think of for the vacancies is accumulated gain. Many homeowners have accumulated gains over the years and feel comfortable choosing and buying their hext house before selling their current one. I will be interested to compare these statistics with those next spring when the market is moving a bit faster.
by neil kearney | Nov 8, 2006 | Statistics
I remember back from my economics course in college that you could analyze almost any situation using supply and demand curves. As supply increased or demand decreased the price for that good would fall to find its equilibrium. Real Estate is a little less liquid than widgets or corn so the same analysis does not always work. The main difference for real estate is that while it is for sale it is still performing a function. You have to live somewhere, right? Sometimes sellers are not motivated and will only sell if they can get their price. This stubbornness makes the real estate market a little more stable, it gives it ballast to withstand the storm.
One way to look at the supply side of real estate is to look at the total number of listings on the market. Right now there are 2,538 single family homes on the market in Boulder County. That doesn’t mean much until you have something to compare it to. This is where I do my version of inventory analysis. I compare the number of listings with the total number of sales during the past year. I then convert that number to a monthly statistic that I can track. For example during the past 12 months there have been 4,298 sales of single family homes in Boulder County. I use the equation (# sales/12)/# active listings = months of inventory. So right now we have approximately 7 months of inventory in Boulder County. In other words it would take 7 months to sell all of the houses currently on the market if we continued at the same pace.
Below I have included charts that show inventory by price range for both single family homes and attached dwellings in Boulder County. In general there is more inventory in the County than there is in the city limits and there is more inventory at the higher price ranges. The chart for attached dwellings shows a huge number for condos above $600,000. In reality there are not many that have sold over the past year in this range and what has sold tends to be new construction in downtown Boulder with many pre-sales. I would not interpret this hot market to be the weakest in the report.
by neil kearney | Nov 6, 2006 | Statistics
Sales figures have been down across Boulder County most of the year as compared with 2004 and 2005. The average drop in the total number of sales for single family homes and attached dwellings in Boulder County has been around 10% per month. The highest variances were 17% drops in closings during July and September.
Days on Market
Other statistics that shows the relative strength of the market are Days to Offer and Days on the Market. This is simply how many days it takes for a listing to sell and close. Days to Offer measures the time it takes to receive and accept an offer. Days on the Market measures the total time from new listing to the closing. Taking the difference of the two measures the average time a seller has to move out while the Buyer does inspections and obtains financing.
From the graph above you can see that the Days to Offer and Days on Market statistics are very similar to the numbers we have been seeing for the past few years. The average time to contract is roughly 75 days with another 25 to 30 days in order to close. A few things to keep in mind when looking at this particular statistic. 1) Not all listings sell. The numbers only reflect those listings that were good enough to attract a buyer. 2) Some listings sell during a second or third listing period. If a listing does not sell within the first couple of months the MLS listing is withdrawn and added again (many times with a new price). This original listing does not show up or add to the listing period shown when it does not sell. Therefore, the numbers shown are unquestionably low. For these reasons this statistic is best used for comparison to past years, not as a prediction of how long a home will take to sell.
