by neil kearney | Dec 6, 2006 | For Buyers
This was the headline in the Boulder Daily Camera this morning. The article went along with the release of school testing proficiency scores as a result of CSAP and ACT testing completed last year. BVSD had 26 “excellent” ratings awarded to 23 individual schools which was more than any other Colorado School District.
I talk to many people around the country and having a strong school distri
ct is such an asset to our community and helps preserve real estate values. However, there is a downside to this type of reporting. Many parents use this information exclusively to judge the merits of a school. The soul of a school does not show up in a rating. Locally, we have many students who speak Spanish as a second language. These students are at a big disadvantage when they take standardized tests in English. Many of the schools with lower ratings have a large ESL (English as a Second Language) population. The schools who have many ESL students have high diversity and many times have more teachers who are able to split students into small groups based on skill level. The Lafayette schools recently have made many innovative efforts to attract students to their neighborhood schools. They have created specialized engineering programs and created magnet schools focusing on math and science. The bottom line is for parents to check out the schools in person to see what they have to offer, not just relying on the test scores.
For scores for individual schools go to http://reportcard.cde.state.co.us/reportcard/CommandHandler.jsp
by neil kearney | Dec 1, 2006 | Statistics
Locally it is a buyers market and I find that many people are curious about how much negotiation is typical off of a homes list price. I have been tracking this statistic for some time and interestingly, it does not vary all that much. The rule of thumb for many years has been between 2% and 4%. Here are % off list price during November for the past 9 years:
1998 – 2.03%
1999- 2.07%
2000 -1.82%
2001 – 2.85%
2002 – 2.86%
2003 – 3.79%
2004 – 2.85%
2005 – 3.53%
2006 – 3.31%
Obviously there is more negotiation in a Buyers Market than a Sellers market. But when the average days to sale increase during the same time period, like they have since 2000, it means that Buyers are being more picky about what they make offers on. I have also seen Sellers not consider offers in a certain range and then accept the same offer (of lower) after time has passed and they have reduced the asking price. Many buyers resist making an offer on a home they consider overpriced.
by neil kearney | Nov 30, 2006 | Statistics
According to a report released today by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), the appreciation in Boulder County was 1.68% for the past year and .06% for the third quarter.
The OFHEO uses data from sales and appraisals to track actual price appreciation using the data from the same house selling or appraising over time.
Boulder yearly appreciation ranked it 237th out of 275 metropolitan areas. This is a drop from second quarter figures, where Boulder was ranked 218th. Nationally there was a 7.73% increase in prices from 3rd quarter 2005 to 3rd quarter 2006. Many of our Western neighbors lead the nation in 1 year appreciation. Here is the top ten:
- Idaho – 17.52%
- Utah – 17.41%
- Oregon – 16.9%
- Arizona – 16.37%
- Washington – 16.35%
- Florida – 15.11%
- Wyoming – 14.39%
- New Mexico – 14.1%
- Hawaii – 13.33%
- Maryland – 13.19%
by neil kearney | Nov 13, 2006 | Statistics
This past weekend I was out showing property and it again became apparant that a large percentage of the places I was showing were unoccupied. Today I ran the numbers and what I found was surprising. I searched both single family homes and attached dwellings by city.
The table above shows the number of vacant homes, the number of occupied homes and the ratio of vacant to occupied for each of the selected locales. Louisville and Superior have the fewest vacant houses on the market with 25%. Ft. Collins, Longmont and Boulder are the highest with 43%, 42% and 41% respectively.
The figures are even higher for attached dwellings where a full 46% of active listings are vacant. The chart is below.
These numbers are so high for a few reasons. First, since the market for new homes has slowed down, builders have listed their inventory on the MLS. In a market where builders are selling their homes before they are completed they do not list their homes on the MLS. All of these homes are counted as vacant. For example all but 4 of Eries attached dwellings are new construction. Another reason for the vacant listings are landlords cashing out. The past few years have been tough for landlords locally. Rents have been falling and it has not been uncommon to have vacancies between rentals. Many small landlords have had enough and are selling after their last leases are up. The last reason I can think of for the vacancies is accumulated gain. Many homeowners have accumulated gains over the years and feel comfortable choosing and buying their hext house before selling their current one. I will be interested to compare these statistics with those next spring when the market is moving a bit faster.
by neil kearney | Nov 8, 2006 | Statistics
I remember back from my economics course in college that you could analyze almost any situation using supply and demand curves. As supply increased or demand decreased the price for that good would fall to find its equilibrium. Real Estate is a little less liquid than widgets or corn so the same analysis does not always work. The main difference for real estate is that while it is for sale it is still performing a function. You have to live somewhere, right? Sometimes sellers are not motivated and will only sell if they can get their price. This stubbornness makes the real estate market a little more stable, it gives it ballast to withstand the storm.
One way to look at the supply side of real estate is to look at the total number of listings on the market. Right now there are 2,538 single family homes on the market in Boulder County. That doesn’t mean much until you have something to compare it to. This is where I do my version of inventory analysis. I compare the number of listings with the total number of sales during the past year. I then convert that number to a monthly statistic that I can track. For example during the past 12 months there have been 4,298 sales of single family homes in Boulder County. I use the equation (# sales/12)/# active listings = months of inventory. So right now we have approximately 7 months of inventory in Boulder County. In other words it would take 7 months to sell all of the houses currently on the market if we continued at the same pace.
Below I have included charts that show inventory by price range for both single family homes and attached dwellings in Boulder County. In general there is more inventory in the County than there is in the city limits and there is more inventory at the higher price ranges. The chart for attached dwellings shows a huge number for condos above $600,000. In reality there are not many that have sold over the past year in this range and what has sold tends to be new construction in downtown Boulder with many pre-sales. I would not interpret this hot market to be the weakest in the report.
