Investment Analysis

I mentioned a week or two ago the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC). MGIC is a company that provides mortgage insurance in case of borrower default. It is their business to know the risks in the nations real estate markets. On their website they have a detailed analysis of the 72 largest metropolitan areas. Today, I’m going to compare three market areas Denver, Detroit and Seattle. Denver is rated as a stable market with no change on the horizon, Detroit is rated as a soft market with weakening in the future and Seattle is rated a strong market with no change in the near future.

 

I will go through the main areas of the report in order:

 

Income Trend

  • Denver – Personal income growth up 7%; Wage and Salary Growth up 8%.
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  • Detroit – Personal income growth up 3.75%; Wage and Salary Growth up 3%.
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  • Seattle – Personal income growth up 9.8%; Wage and Salary Growth up 10.25%.

 

Employment

  • Denver – Unemployment Rate 4.7%, Employment Growth Rate 5.7%.
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  • Detroit – Unemployement Rate 8.75%; Employment Growth Rate -1.25%.
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  • Seattle – Unemployement Rate 4%; Employment Growth Rate 6.8%.

 

Housing Affordibility – A measure of how incomes, median price and mortgage rates interact. The lower the number the more affordable the market is to the most people.

  • Denver – 123 and trending down (good).
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  • Detroit – 205 and trending up (poor).
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  • Seattle – 78 and trending down (good).

 

Home Appreciation as measured by OFHEO

  • Denver – 2.8% per year and declining – median price of $249,167
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  • Detroit – -1% and declining – median price of $105,940
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  • Seattle – 17.5% and stabilizing – median price of $398,244

 

Single Family Permits vs. Household Growth a measure of population growth.

  • Denver – Household Growth 1.5%, Single Family Permits 14,700 and declining.
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  • Detroit – Household Growth -.25%, Single Family Permits 2,200 and declining.
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  • Seattle – Household Growth 1.25%, Single Family Permits 10,500 and stable.

 

Overall, you can see the factors that go into the health of a real estate market. This can be replicated for any of the 72 largest metropolitan areas and is one good tool to identify possible investment areas. After looking at Detroit and other depressed areas in the Midwest I am grateful for the market we do have in Boulder and Denver Colorado.

Boulder Real Estate Number of Sales Down; Median Sales Price Up

During January 2007 there were 181 closed sales of single family homes in Boulder County. This is down 7 units from last year and down 23 units from 2005. The median price for the same criteria was $370,000; an increase of $5,000 from a year ago and an increase of $21,000 over those transactions closing in December 2006. Currently there are 350 homes on the market that are under contract. This represents 16.5% of the total inventory.

On average it took 86 for the houses that closed in January to find a buyer. Compare this to 94 days to offer for homes that closed in December. Let’s hope this trend continues. To me it seems like showings are up and there is more activity in the market!

 

Boulder Realtors Bring Affordable Housing

Saturday was a very exciting day for the Boulder Area Realtor® Association. After three and a half years of fundraising, meetings, partnerships and bureaucratic red tape, the Southern Lights housing project finally had its kickoff celebration! I have been in on the planning and meetings since the beginning and am very happy to see BARA participating in the community in such a meaningful way. The project will be the homes for 4 families and is located in the Holiday Neighborhood on the North side of town. The buildings were designed by Wolff-Lyon Architects and will be constructed by Cottonwood Construction (thanks Matt Fitzrandolph) along with a volunteer effort which will include at least five Saturdays of Realtors® with hammers, a bit of a scary thought.
The photo above shows the ceremonial check presentation of $50,000 from BARA to Mark Jellison of AHA (Affordable Housing Alliance). The photo below shows some of the people who have committed to purchase a home. This should be an exciting project and I look forward to helping with the construction.

I Won’t Tell If You Won’t Tell

I recently heard a funny story from one my Realtor® colleagues in the office. He was showing a home in the mountains and after knocking on the door he and his client started viewing the house. As they viewed the house together the agent opened the broom closet door only to find the seller hiding in the dark. They made eye contact and then the agent closed the door and they continued the showing. Not a word was spoken! After they left the house the client asked the agent “did you see a person in the closet?”. They laughed all the way down the hill.

 

 

I can think of two reasons for the Sellers to hide: 1) They had been strictly instructed by the listing agent to be absent for showings. They for some reason couldn’t be gone so they did the next best thing, hide. 2) The Seller didn’t want to wait to get feedback through the normal channels. This gives a new meaning to Seller agent.

 

 

We see a lot of crazy stuff out there.