by neil kearney | Dec 1, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics
The activity in the market continues to surprise me. I just did a quick preview of November sales and total sales in Boulder County are going to be way up for November compared to a year ago. I see three major factors fueling the real estate market in the Boulder area: higher consumer confidence, first-time homebuyer tax credit and low interest rates.
The unemployment rate in Boulder County is 6%, well below the national average. It looks like many of those happily employed people are deciding to buy real estate while the conditions are just right.
On a related side note. Segate, a large employer who has employees in Longmont Colorado had layoffs and mandatory 10% pay cuts about a year ago. From what I have heard, the company has reinstated the original pay scale. This type of action frees up the wallets of all of the employees who are no longer afraid for their jobs.
by neil kearney | Nov 26, 2009 | Uncategorized
I’d like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving! This is a day to slow down and be thankful for all that we have been blessed with. I have much for which to be thankful.
by neil kearney | Nov 25, 2009 | Statistics
The top headline in the Boulder Daily Camera this morning was:
“Boulder County home values see first annual drop in 21 years
Boulder median price falls $40,000 since last October”
The top headline was technically correct but the sub-headline was very misleading and did not correspond with the first statement. Here’s the deal. According the FHFA the government agency that tracks home values, Boulder County’s home stock lost an average of .056% over the past year. True, this was the first time since 1988 our fine county has seen red figures, but at just over 1/2% this corresponds to just over $3,200 based on an average price last year of $573,000. This percentage still ranks us well above the national average of -3.76% over the past year and ranks us 80th out of 297 metropolitan areas they track.
So where does the $40,000 drop come from? The Boulder Area Realtor Association releases statistics each month and last October the median price of sales that occurred during October was $573,000. During October of this year the sales mix just happened to have a median price in the within the city of $533,500. Taking one month of data and drawing broad conclusions is not a good way to go about reporting statistics. During the same month sales were up 11% from the previous year, but it would be preposterous to say that “sales are up 11% since last October”.
I’m not saying that some sectors in the Boulder area real estate market are not losing value. The high end especially is under price pressure. I’m just saying that letting the public believe that home values have dropped $40,000 based on 1/12 of the data needed to make an informed reporting is just not correct.
Below is a chart that shows historical data from FHFA.gov and compares Boulder County appreciation to the Nations.
by neil kearney | Nov 24, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends
I write a monthly column for the Boulder Area Realtor Association which accompanies the statistics for the month. While it is written for an audience of fellow Realtors, I thought I might share it here as well.
For 26 months I have been finding different ways to tell the same story. The story has been one of 
fewer sales. Month after month, last years numbers better than this years. Like a giant staircase heading down into a medieval dungeon. Until now! October was the first month in over two years where Boulder County had more closings in our market area than the same month the previous year. And it wasn’t just by a few. Sales were up 11%!
Okay, the streak has been broken, but is this just a temporary reprieve before resuming the downward march? I don’t know for sure, but here are my thoughts. Remembering a year ago, it’s not hard to imagine why sales in October 2008 were not that hard to beat. If you recall, we were in the midst of a financial hurricane. The stock market was falling by hundreds of points a day, banks were failing and being bailed out, jobs were being lost by the bushel (more on this later), and we Americans began to super-glue our wallets shut. October 2008 was the first month of real estate sales that began to feel the effect of the economic crisis that has played havoc since then. When you compare that uncertainty to now maybe not much has changed on the macro level, but I think as a collective whole we have become a whole lot more comfortable with it. After living through report after report saying that the “sky is falling, the sky is falling” we eventually figure out that the sky isn’t actually falling and for many, it might just be a good time to pry open that wallet.
There are a few core reasons why people buy or sell real estate and those reasons are tied to change. Some reasons are urgent and can’t wait for a better time in the market. Some reasons are more discretionary and tend to simmer until it feels like the right time. Some people are just in the right place at the right time. There are many reasons that turn the wheels of a market but none are as strong or as broad as job creation. During an economic downturn, the power behind the real estate market is hampered by job losses. As jobs are lost, general confidence of coworkers, neighbors, and relatives (who still have jobs) decreases.
Lately, we have been getting the news that technically the recession is over. The GDP has risen. While we are far from being “out of the woods”, it seems we may be bouncing off of the bottom. In my opinion, it will be a modest recovery until the economy begins to create jobs in a big way. But from what I have been seeing personally, people who have been putting off a decision are starting to think hard about taking advantage of the current market. We should be see our trend of higher sales on a monthly basis continue at least through spring. We may have turned the corner, albeit slowly.
by neil kearney | Nov 22, 2009 | Colorado Lifestyle
The holiday season in Boulder Colorado is officially kicked off! It may seem a little early, but Santa and the popular singing group FACE helped bring in the holiday season on the Pearl Street Mall in Boulder tonight. The concert and Santa appearance were the precursor to the lighting of the Christmas lights on the mall, courthouse and the Flagstaff Star which will all now shine until after New Years Day.
As the countdown finally made it’s way to 0 the energy efficient LED Christmas lights reluctantly flickered on and the courthouse didn’t light for another 30 seconds. It was quite anti-climatic but quite funny. Overall it was a nice event that brought people together in a festive way. Way to go Downtown Boulder!
