Real Estate on The Front Range

In the latest home price index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Boulder County was listed in the top 20 of the 292 largest metro areas for annual appreciation for the period ended December 21, 2008.  Boulder's annual appreciation was listed as 2.99% while the U.S. as a whole had a depreciation of 8.27%.  Colorado was ranked 17th with a annual depreciation of 2.61%.  Prices fell in 44 states plus Washington D.C..  

The graph below shows Boulder's appreciation compared to the U.S.'s over the past 11 quarters.  It is interesting to see the negative trend of the nation as a whole compared to our relatively steady rate.  It is important to know that the national trend is not true in Boulder Colorado.   

The top 20 areas for appreciation are mostly in the Southeastern U.S. including; Alabama, Texas and South Carolina.  The top metro area for appreciation over the past year was Decatur, AL with a 6.58% increase.

The bottom 20 areas

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OFHEO Quarterly Appreciation Report

The latest price index report from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight has been released and it contains some very interesting information. During the one year period ending June 30th 2008 the average appreciation nationally was -1.71% for purchases and transactions and -4.8% for purchase only transactions. Thirty of the fifty states showed positive appreciation for the one year period; and CA, FL and NV saw prices decline more than 12% over the the past two quarters.

Closer to home, Colorado had average appreciation of 1.82% over the past year, ranking it 18th. For the 1 year period ending in March, Colorado ranked 23rd with an appreciation of 2.29%. Clearly appreciation nationally is still struggling. For the Boulder area; our appreciation for the past year was 2.47%, ranking it 69th out of 292 metropolitan areas, not bad. For the second quarter Boulder County had appreciation of .25%, ranking it 67th.

According to Patrick Lawler, the chief economist of OFHEO "The most overbuilt areas of the country --including California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida --contrast greatly with most other states, where prices are declining more moderately or even increasing".

The attached chart shows the appreciation rate of Boulder County in orange contrasted to the United States as a whole.

Boulder vs. United States
OFHEO Home Price Index

The OFHEO Home Price Index for the first quarter of 2008 was recently released and the results were very interesting. Directly from the report which can be found at http://www.ofheo.com/ is the following text:

"Significant Findings:
Purchase-only Index:
1. Prices fell in the latest quarter in 43 states.
2. Eight states exhibited quarterly price declines of more than 3 percent and two
states -- California and Nevada --saw prices decline more than 8 percent.
3. Every Census Division experienced a price decline in the latest quarter. Prices
were weakest in the Pacific Census Division, which experienced a 5.9 percent
price decline in the quarter.
All- transactions HPI:
4. The states with the greatest price appreciation between the first quarter of 2007
and the first quarter of 2008 were: Wyoming (6.3%), Utah (5.6%), Montana
(4.9%), Texas (4.7%), and Alabama (4.5%). The states with the sharpest
depreciation for the same period were: California (-10.6%), Nevada (-10.3%),
Florida (-8.1%), Arizona (-5.5%), and Michigan (-3.1%).
5. Of the 20 ranked cities with the greatest price declines over the latest four
quarters, all but one (Las Vegas-Paradise, Nevada) were in California or Florida.
6. The Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with the greatest price appreciation
between the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008 were: Houma-
Bayou, Louisiana (11.2%), Grand Junction, Colorado (9.1%), and Wenatchee,
Washington (8.0%). The MSAs with the sharpest depreciation for the same
period were: Merced (-24.7%), Stockton (-21.5%), and Modesto (-21.0%), all in
California.
7. Of the 292 cities on OFHEO’s list of “ranked” MSAs, 164 had positive quarterly
appreciation and 128 had price declines."

The US as a whole showed a small decline for the first time ever over a 4 quarter period. What is clear is that the Boulder Colorado market is doing significantly better than much of the nation. Over the past 4 quarters, the Boulder area had average appreciation of 4.11% and Colorado had 2.39% while the US as a whole was -.03%. The chart below shows how our market is moving contrary to the country as a whole. Currently we are ranked 53rd out of the 291 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, a marked improvement from where we were just 18 months ago.