Entries in FHFA Index (5)

Wednesday
Aug252010

Boulder County Home Appreciation - How We Compare

DateWednesday, August 25, 2010 at 9:30AM

FHFA.gov just released their Home Appreciation Index for the second quarter of 2010.  I'm always interested in this report as it gives a good outside comparison to see how home values are doing right here in Boulder County.  The report computes home appreciation based upon same house sales.  That is, when a house sells they go back and research what that exact home sold for in the past.  This method gives a good indication of what prices are actually doing in any given area over time.

For the four quarters ending on June 30, 2010 homes in Boulder County lost 1.92% on average.  Out of the approximately 300 areas that they track Boulder ranks 72nd in appreciation.  In other words, Boulder area real estate has done better than 75% of the other areas in the United States. 

On a wider level, average appreciation for the year ending June 30th was -1.6%.  Colorado ranked 14th among states with a yearly appreciation of -.25%.  Interestingly, California, after a few years of large price depreciation is back on top home appreciation among states with a yearly appreciation of 2.9%.

The graphs below shows home appreciation in Boulder County over time compared to the United States and Boulder County's national ranking over time.

 

 

Just in case you are interested in the areas of the country that are doing the best and worst right now in terms of home appreciation here are the top and bottom 10.

Top Ten Areas for Home Appreciation for Period Ending June 30, 2010:

  1. Springfield, IL - 2.68%
  2. Dubuque, IA - 2.41%
  3. San Jose- Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA - 1.89%
  4. Santa Ana - Anaheim - Irvine, CA - 1.45%
  5. Huntington-Ashland, WV, KY, OH - 1.4%
  6. Kennewick - Pasco - Richland, WA - 1.36%
  7. Houma - Bayou - Cane - Thibodaux, LA - 1.31%
  8. Buffalo - Niagra Falls, NY - 1.3%
  9. Sioux City, IA, SD, NE - 1.16%
  10. Cedal Rapids, IA - .94%

Bottom 10 Areas for Home Appreciation for Period Ending June 30, 2010:

303.  Bend, OR -  -18.59%

302.  Ocala, FL -  -18.55%

301.  Madera - Chowchilla, CA - -17.64%

300.  Lakeland - Winter Haven, FL -  -17.61%

299.  Reno - Sparks, NV -  -17.31%

298.  Orlando - Kissimmee - Sanford, FL - -16.11%

297.  Lake Havasu City - Kingman, AZ -  -15.09

296.  Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach, FL -  -14.98%

295.  Port St. Lucie, FL -  -14.42%

294.  Las Vegas - Paradise, NV -  -13.94%

 

While home appreciation is not the only indicator of the health of any given real estate market, it does give a good indication of what is going on.  To me it looks like the extremes are not quite so divergent and some areas which have been hit by large depreciation don't have so much to give.  We still have a ways to go toward recovery.  After all, this is only the 9th quarter in which the United States has every seen home depreciation.  It just so happens that it has been 9 quarters in a row. 

Boulder County home appreciation, although at -1.92% is fairly benign given that homes have appreciated by 4.72% over the past five years.

AuthorNeil Kearney | CommentPost a Comment | | | Print ArticlePrint Article
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Tuesday
May252010

FHFA - Boulder Home Values Drop 2.3%

DateTuesday, May 25, 2010 at 9:44PM

Every quarter the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) publishes a home value index.  The index includes results for approximately 300 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA's) around the nation.  Home values are also figured for states and regions.  I prefer this index to the popular Case-Schiller Index because it includes a much broader measure of the real estate markets than the 20 largest metro areas can provide.  It is also nice that the index measures home appreciation in the Boulder area.  The Boulder MSA includes all of Boulder County.  For the 1 year period ending March 31, 2010 home appreciation in Boulder was -2.3%. 

Let's put this number in perspective.  On the negative side -2.3% is the lowest appreciation rate in decades.  At the end of December home appreciation in Boulder County was -1.5%.  Those in the glass half full group (aye) find comfort, despite a loss in home values, in comparison.  So here are some facts that make us locally feel pretty lucky.

  • The average home appreciation for every home in the United States was -3.1%.
  • Only nine states (including Washington DC) had positive appreciation.
  • Only 10 of the 301 MSA's had positive home appreciation.
  • Boulder County, despite a negative 2.3% annual appreciation ranks 50th out of 301 MSA's.
  • The 20 worst areas for appreciation begins with Detroit at -13.49% and ends with Bend, OR at -23.03% in annual appreciation.
  • Homes values in Boulder County have increased 6.89% over the past 5 years.
  • Home values in Merced CA have decreased 49.3% over the past 5 years.
  • Home values for all US homes have decreased 2.85% over the past 5 years.

Yes, our market is not as robust as it once was but, boy, we need to count our blessings.  Our market has not been overrun with foreclosures, supply and demand have been pretty much in line with each other, our job market has remained strong.  We are in relatively good shape.  This does not mean that we are out-of-the-woods yet.  We still have some major challenges to overcome, both locally and nationally, but despite the negative appreciation, I am feeling much better about our market than I was a year ago. 

The charts below (hit the four arrows for full screen), show the trends in Boulder's FHFA ranking as well as compares Boulder County's home appreciation with the United States'.


Boulder Home Appreciation - FHFA

AuthorNeil Kearney | Comment1 Comment | | | Print ArticlePrint Article
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Thursday
Feb252010

Boulder Home Appreciation Ranks 82nd Nationally

DateThursday, February 25, 2010 at 4:30PM

The Federal Housing Finance Agency released released their 4th quarter home price index today.  Boulder County is one of the 299 Metropolitan Statistical Districts (MSA's) that are tracked and ranked in terms of home price appreciation (or depreciation).  Boulder ranked 82nd out of the 299 tracked areas in terms of 1 year appreciation ending December 31, 2009.  The one year return was -1.45%.  For the 4th quarter the appreciation was .18%. 

Nationally the overall appreciation during 2009 was -1.21%.  Colorado ranked 2nd in the U.S with a 3.07% increase.  The top MSA over the past year was Terre Haute, Indiana whose one year return was 3.11%.  The largest depreciation was seen in Bend, Oregon at -20.55%, closely followed by Las Vegas, NV at -19.30%.

The chart below shows the home appreciation in Boulder compared to that of the United States as a whole. 

For more graphs including four year accumulated appreciation of selected markets and how Boulder has ranked nationally since 2006, click here.  For a list of the top and bottom 20 areas for home appreciation and a full list of all 50 states ranked by 1 year home appreciation, click here. 

 

AuthorNeil Kearney | CommentPost a Comment | | | Print ArticlePrint Article
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Wednesday
Nov252009

Boulder County Home Values

DateWednesday, November 25, 2009 at 8:51AM

The top headline in the Boulder Daily Camera this morning was: 

"Boulder County home values see first annual drop in 21 years

Boulder median price falls $40,000 since last October"

The top headline was technically correct but the sub-headline was very misleading and did not correspond with the first statement.  Here's the deal.  According the FHFA the government agency that tracks home values, Boulder County's home stock lost an average of .056%  over the past year.  True, this was the first time since 1988 our fine county has seen red figures, but at just over 1/2% this corresponds to just over $3,200 based on an average price last year of $573,000.  This percentage still ranks us well above the national average of -3.76% over the past year and ranks us 80th out of 297 metropolitan areas they track.

So where does the $40,000 drop come from?  The Boulder Area Realtor Association releases statistics each month and last October the median price of sales that occurred during October was $573,000.  During October of this year the sales mix just happened to have a median price in the within the city of $533,500.  Taking one month of data and drawing broad conclusions is not a good way to go about reporting statistics.  During the same month sales were up 11% from the previous year, but it would be preposterous to say that "sales are up 11% since last October". 

I'm not saying that some sectors in the Boulder area real estate market are not losing value.  The high end especially is under price pressure.  I'm just saying that letting the public believe that home values have dropped $40,000 based on 1/12 of the data needed to make an informed reporting is just not correct.

Below is a chart that shows historical data from FHFA.gov and compares Boulder County appreciation to the Nations.

 

AuthorNeil Kearney | CommentPost a Comment | | | Print ArticlePrint Article
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Tuesday
Jun162009

FHFA Appreciation - Boulder Ranks 23rd in Nation

DateTuesday, June 16, 2009 at 8:10AM

According the the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Boulder County ranked 23rd out of 294 metropolitan statistical areas in 1 year appreciation for the time period ending March 31, 2009.  The yearly appreciation for our area was reported as 1.99%.  As a nation the appreciation was -7.14%.  As a state, Colorado ranked 13th with -1.7%. 

The top states in the rankings were Alaska (4.79%), Oklahoma (.3%), North Dakota (.3%) and South Dakota (.29%).  In fact these four were the only states to record a positive return for the year.  The hardest hit states during the past year were; Nevada (-31%), Florida (-22.46%), California (-22.12%) and Arizona (-19.51%). 

 

 

The first chart above shows how Boulder has compared to the nation in yearly appreciation each quarter since june of 2006.  This shows how steady our market has been compared to the rest of the country.  The second graph shows show we compare to the rest of the metropolitan areas.  Even though our appreciation has been steady our ranking has jumped because of the declines seen across a majority of the country. 

AuthorNeil Kearney | CommentPost a Comment | | | Print ArticlePrint Article
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