I’m thankful for the opportunities that I had to work with my wonderful clients in 2009 and look forward to making 2010 a great year for many people. I see great opportunities in the Boulder area real estate market and would love to share those with you.
“Year’s end is neither an end nor a beginning but a going on, with all the wisdom that experience can instill in us.” ~Hal Borland
The last 10 days of the year are usually some of the slowest of the year when it comes to real estate. Throughout the Boulder area people are out enjoying the snow, enjoying friends or are out of town all together. Even though showings and contract writing is slow I know that many people are starting to consider where they want to be living next Christmas.
I too am taking a few days off to spend some time with family, but at the same time I’m gearing up for 2010. The business landscape is always changing and I am continually looking for new and better ways to help my clients buy and sell homes. I am truly excited for the coming year and if you are considering a new home I’d love to talk it over with you.
Here is a quick chart showing the weekly activity in the Boulder real estate market. Of the 67 properties that closed last week in Boulder County the median price was just $267,400. Still the lower price ranges are selling well.
Sales up 69% during November. Is it to be believed? The numbers have been checked twice and it has been confirmed. But what does it mean? Is this the end of the slump? Have we broken the trend? Shall we brush up on our karaoke version of “Let The Good Times Roll? Not so fast.
After a few years of month upon month of same month declining sales we have now had two positive
months. But before we get too excited we should answer the ever present question “why”. The way I see it there are three main reasons why we have seen strong sales over the past few months. Those three reasons are: Stimulus, Confidence and Comparison. I will tackle them in order.
The stimulus plan, more specifically the homebuyer tax credit, has been around since the first quarter of 2009 but this was an easy one to procrastinate on. The original deadline before it was extended in early November was November 30th. As we got closer and closer to that deadline more and more first timers were racing the clock in order to take advantage of once in a lifetime money. Many argued that these people were going to buy a house anyway but the credit and the deadline that went along with it condensed the sales. The argument was that we were borrowing next year’s sales now. Now that the tax credit has been extended and expanded we might just see a new round of stimulated sales ending in April.
After more than a year of gloom and doom we are starting to see some signs that we are coming out of what has been dubbed “The Great Recession”. Many sectors seem to be recovering however; housing is not on the short list. In Boulder County the recession took its toll but it certainly was not as deep and painful as many other areas. Unemployment in the county is currently in the 6’s while nationally it is around 10%. Jobs drive homeownership. There are many reasons why people move but most of those reasons can be put off if all is not quiet on the job front. If the vast majority of people are still employed what caused our sales to drop more than 50% over the past few years? Much of the difference can be attributed to confidence. When your company is laying off and you could be next you don’t buy a house. When your salary has been cut 10% you lose the drive to take on a new mortgage. When you see your neighbor lose their house to foreclosure you tend to hold on to what you already have. In a word consumer confidence has taken a big blow and we are just now starting to see some of those people who have been putting off those buying decisions come out of the woodwork. As the economy becomes brighter, more and more will feel that it is safe to make a decision.
I’m a sports fan and after many years of watching our local teams one thing has become very clear. For a mediocre team (and we have seen our fair share lately), results are directly tied to the quality of the competition. If the Buffs are playing the College of the Grand Prairie State we tend to look pretty darn good and when we play say, Texas we tend to look like a high school team. And so it is with statistics. For 27 months in row our sales figures were lower when compared to the year before. At some point what you’re comparing to is so bad that anything looks decent. Remember a year ago, November sales were hamstrung by the economic backwash that was causing banks to fail, companies to go bankrupt and mortgages to disappear. So while it is great for sales to be up 69% it is sort of like the Buffaloes beating Fairview High School 77-0 in a game. Good news but not all that impressive.
Last month the Boulder Daily Camera declared that home values had fallen for the first time in 25 years and that the average homeowner in Boulder had lost $40,000. This is another reason why you can’t believe everything that you read. Yes, median prices have gone down. According to FHFA.gov median prices had fallen .56% from 3rd quarter 2008 to 3rdquarter 2009. IRES statistics show a decrease of 3% in the county through the end of November. But $40,000? Where did that come from? Each month BARA reports the median prices of the homes that sell in each locale during that particular month. During October the median sales price of homes in Boulder happen to be $40,000 lower than October of 2008. It is not scientific, it proves nothing and the sample size was just 36 homes sold.
It will be an interesting year ahead. I expect a quick start and am hoping that consumer confidence and jobs begin to surge just as the stimulus expires.
Christmas is just around the corner and the following story came to me via email. Even though this does not a normal topic for this blog, I thought I would share it anyway. I hope you enjoy it and feel compelled to share the spirit of the season. Best wishes, Neil
*Adventure With Grandma*
I remember my first Christmas adventure with Grandma.
I was just a kid. I
remember tearing across town on my bike to visit her on the day my big sister dropped the bomb:
“There is no Santa Claus,” she jeered. “
Even dummies know that!”
My Grandma was not the gushy kind, never had been.
I fled to her that day because I knew she would be straight with me. I knew Grandma always told the truth, and I knew that the truth always went down a whole lot easier when swallowed with one of her world-famous cinnamon buns. I knew they were
world-famous, because Grandma said so. It had to be true.
Grandma was home, and the buns were still warm.
Between bites, I told her everything. She was ready for me.
“No Santa Claus!” she snorted. “Ridiculous!
Don’t believe it. That rumour has been going around for years, and it makes me mad, plain mad.. Now, put on your coat, and let’s go.”
“Go? Go where, Grandma?” I asked. I hadn’t even finished my second world-famous, cinnamon bun. “Where” turned out to be Kerby’s General Store, the one store in town that had a little bit of just about everything. As we walked through its doors, Grandma handed me ten dollars. That was a bundle in those days. “Take this money,” she said,
“and buy something for someone who needs it.”
I’ll wait for you in the car.” Then she turned and walked out of Kerby’s.
I was only eight years old. I’d often gone shopping with my mother, but never had I shopped for anything all by myself. The store seemed big and crowded, full of people scrambling to finish their Christmas shopping. For a few moments I just stood there, confused, clutching that ten-dollar bill, wondering what to buy, and who on earth to buy it for.
I thought of everybody I knew: my family, my friends, my neighbors, the kids at school, the people who went to my church. I was just about thought out, when I suddenly thought of Bobby Decker. He was a kid with bad breath and messy hair, and he sat right behind me in Mrs.Pollock’s grade-two class..
Bobby Decker didn’t have a coat. I knew that because he never went out for recess during the winter. His mother always wrote a note, telling the teacher that he had a cough, but all we kids knew that Bobby Decker didn’t have a cough, and
he didn’t have a coat. I fingered the ten-dollar bill with growing excitement.
I would buy Bobby Decker a coat! 
I settled on a red corduroy one that had a hood to it. It looked real warm, and he would like that. “Is this a Christmas present for someone?” the lady behind the counter asked kindly, as I laid my ten dollars down. “Yes,” I
replied shyly. “It’s …. for Bobby.” The nice lady smiled at me. I didn’t get any change, but she put the coat in a bag and wished me a Merry Christmas.
That evening, Grandma helped me wrap the coat in Christmas paper and ribbons (a little tag fell out of the coat, and Grandma tucked it in her Bible) and wrote on the package, “To Bobby, From Santa Claus” — Grandma said that Santa always insisted on secrecy. Then she drove me over to Bobby Decker’s house,
explaining as we went that I was now and forever officially one of Santa’s helpers.
Grandma parked down the street from Bobby’s house, and she and I crept noiselessly and hid in the bushes by his front walk Then Grandma gave me a nudge. “All right, Santa Claus,” she whispered, “get going.”
I took a deep breath, dashed for his front door, threw the present down on his step, pounded his doorbell and flew back to the safety of the bushes and Grandma. Together we waited breathlessly in the darkness for the front door to open. Finally it did, and there stood Bobby.
Fifty years haven’t dimmed the thrill of those moments spent shivering, beside my Grandma, in Bobby Decker’s bushes. That night, I realized that those awful rumours about Santa Claus were just what Grandma said they were: ridiculous. Santa was alive and well, and we were on his team.
I still have the Bible, with the tag tucked inside: $19.95.
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He who has no Christmas in his heart
will never find Christmas
under a tree.
Boulder is well known to be one of the top locations in the country for bike enthusiasts of all kinds. There are world class cyclists, tons
of weekend warriors and plenty of want-to-be’s and look-alike’s. But what separates the boys from the men and the women from the girls is the weather. With miles of designated bike lanes and paths that avoid traffic altogether, it is really easy to get around town riding your bike when the weather is good. But winter is when you see the real dedicated cyclists show their stuff. Through darkness, snow, cold and traffic you see bike commuters braving the elements and sticking to their convictions. The City of Boulder makes what seems to me to be a good effort to keep the bike paths clear of snow and this allows the dedicated few to continue their daily ritual right through the winter.
I see bikers every day heading to and from the office, but today I noticed this unusually well outfitted cyclist heading from Gunbarrel into Boulder. His rig was not your normal bike, it was an extra long, electric enhanced, two wheeled, all terrain, work, delivery, moving bike. He had built-in hand warmers, two rear flashing lights, a high output front lamp that would have made me flip my rear view mirror to night mode, if I had to do that anymore. Basically, he had made a major investment in his transportation and he outfitted his bike to do everything he needed it to do. Awesome!
Here are a few links that will help you get set up if you want to dip your toes into the world of bike commuting or go all out like the guy I saw this morning.
Boulder Bike Commuters of the Year 2009
I love Boulder!
I’d like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving! This is a day to slow down and be thankful for all that we have been blessed with. I have much for which to be thankful.
Broker/Owner
Kearney Realty Co.
303.818.4055