In 2017 Boulder Real Estate Negotiation Tipped Toward Buyers

In 2017 Boulder Real Estate Negotiation Tipped Toward Buyers

In 2017 in Boulder County, the average negotiation off of list price for all sales was 1.3%.  In 2016 it was .36%.  However, when you look at it more closely both over time and across price ranges there are some good market insights.  The chart below shows the sales in each of the last four quarters separated into three categories; those that sold for below the list price (blue), those that sold for exactly list price (orange), and those that sold for above list price (grey). As an example, let’s look at the second quarter of 2016 which is the second group from the left.  During that quarter Boulder County was ranked #1 in the nation for appreciation by FHFA.gov.  During the quarter, 30% of the sales went for less than the asking price, 20% went for exactly the list price and 50% of the sales sold for a price in excess of the asking price.  This past quarter 56% sold for less than list price, 23% went for exactly asking price and 21% went for above the list price. The overall take away is that buyers have gained some traction in negotiations.  There are two trend lines that intersect.  The upward trending blue line represents the trend of properties selling below the asking price.  The downward trending grey line shows the trend for homes selling at a premium. 

With the information above we can conclude that the overall market is trending away from a strong sellers market.  But in real estate broad generalities are not always accurate.  When we look at individual price ranges we find that the lower range is still very strong and in the luxury ranges the market has shifted more strongly toward the buyer.  During 2017 the average sales price to list price ratio was 98.7%. In other words, on average buyers were able to negotiate 1.3% off of the list price.  However, when we break this down by price range we find that during 2017:

  • Homes that sold for $500,000 or less sold for .9% above list price.
  • Homes that sold between $500,000 and $1,000,000 sold for .4% above list price.
  • Homes that sold between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000 sold for 2.75% below list price.
  • Homes that sold for prices above $2,000,000 sold for 4.17% below list price.

The bottom line is that if you are buying a house in the entry level of any of the Boulder County communities you won’t have much wiggle room on price.  If you are in the market for a home in the luxury range you will have much more room for negotiation.  Don’t be fooled by averages.

The Tax Bill And Its Affect On Real Estate

The Tax Bill And Its Affect On Real Estate

The recently passed federal tax bill will definitely have an impact on real estate.  In general markets with high taxes and high values will be most affected.  Despite the recent increase in local property taxes, Boulder County is considered a low property tax area compared to other parts of the country.  However, we are a high value market.  Here is a summary of the main points of the tax bill that affect real estate.

Mortgage Interest Cap – This is in regards to how much of the interest paid for mortgages can be used as a deduction.  For those whose mortgages balances are less than $750,000 this will not affect anything.  Previously the cap was $1 million and it has now been reduced to $750,000.  Not many people have loans in excess of $750,000, but in our area where the luxury home market is very robust, we may see fewer buyers able to make those purchases. The interest on the first $750,000 is still deductible.  This may dissuade some luxury home purchasers to buy a less expensive home, thereby reducing the demand for the very high end.

Local and State Tax Deduction – The Boulder County Treasurer was inundated before the new year with property owners pre-paying their property tax bill in advance.  This was in response to the section of the tax bill which caps the deduction for state and local taxes at $10,000. Previously, homeowners were able to deduct from their federal tax return the amounts paid for state income tax, various ownership taxes and property taxes without limit.  Now the deduction is limited to $10,000.  Buyers may shy away from a house with a large tax bill knowing that payment will no longer reduce their tax bill.

Other Related Items – Those who own investment real estate may be getting a tax break on their real estate investment income.  Income that comes through pass-through entities such as LLC’s get a tax break.  20% of that income can be deducted.  You may have heard that the capital gains exclusion time limit had been expanded to require living in a house 5 of the previous 8 years in order to use the $250,000 for a single or $500,000 for a couple when selling a principal residence, this was overturned during the last few days leaving the existing rule of occupying the home two of the past five years.

This is just a high level outline, please contact your tax professional for more details.

The Real Estate Cycle – Where Are We Now?

The Real Estate Cycle – Where Are We Now?

The Real Estate Cycle

The Real Estate Cycle

Approximately 2500 years ago Heraclitus of Ephesus said “The only thing that is constant is change”.  In the moment we sometimes forget that forces larger than we can see are slowly moving culture, markets and people.  Everything we see is changing, however the rate of change makes a difference. We notice more readily the melting of an ice cream cone than the erosion of a mountain.  It’s normal to only take note of what we can readily see.  However, there is wisdom in taking a longer view.

Real estate is cyclical.  There are many factors involved, but the peaks and valleys of the real estate demand and value have been shown to have a relatively consistent cycle of approximately 18 years.  Economist Homer Hoyt made a detailed study of the Chicago real estate market and the broader United States real estate market and found that it has run its course in a steady 18 year rhythm since 1800.  There have been exceptions that have disrupted the normal cycle such as The Great Depression, World War II and the post war boom but on average, the business cycle and the real estate cycle have been very consistent including the 18 year cycle than ended in 2008.  

The infographic above shows the four phases of the real estate cycle.  Here is more information on each of the stages of the cycle.  Most studies present Recovery as the first phase of the cycle, but since the last recession was so memorable I think it makes a good starting point.

Recession 

Think back to what was in the news in 2008 – 2011: Foreclosures, unemployment, short sales, mortgage reform, lowering interest rates, 40% drop in real estate sales, stock market losing value, declining home prices (Boulder was one of the few markets to hold most of its value), consumers reducing spending, rental vacancies, lower rents, incentives to buy and lease, etc. etc.  The situation was shocking, many of the US real estate markets had just climbed to all time highs, buyers were using easy credit to buy multiple homes thinking that the easy money would continue indefinitely.  And it did, until all of a sudden it crashed. Fortunes were lost. Especially for those who couldn’t hold on for the recovery.  This was the low point in the economy and the real estate market.  The signs to look for when recession is on the horizon are; interest rates are raised to slow an over heated economy, increased inventory of unsold homes, higher rental vacancies, new construction shows with more unsold inventory and higher interest rates (although some developers who are late to the party always get caught), mortgage delinquencies increase which leads to more foreclosures.  During the recession it is a buyers market.  Those with the wherewithal should purchase real estate at a discount.

Recovery

This is the bounce off the low point.  During this phase the inevitable march of population slowly increases the demand for real estate and other goods. Accumulated inventory gets absorbed, vacant rental units get rented, adult children slowly move out of their parents basements, the Fed lowers interest rates to stimulate demand. With favorable interest rates businesses expand.  They hire more employees, make capital investment.  During this phase, prices stabilize, excess inventory gets purchased and there is virtually no new construction (developers are licking their wounds), in the aftermath of the recession, banks are very careful about lending.

Expansion

Recovery turns to expansion when most of the available inventory has been absorbed by individuals of businesses.  Rental occupancy rates are higher than average, new construction finishes are at a low and stalled projects finish out, built up foreclosure inventory is all but gone.  Once the expansion is recognized developers scramble to fill the new demand by planning new projects. However, developing property takes 2-3 years from start to finish so this isn’t instantaneous, there is a lag. With very little new construction the demand for re-sale homes is very strong.  This results in rising prices and in some markets the supply demand discrepancy results in multiple offer situations that further exacerbate price increases.  In times of unusually low inventory during this phase (before the new construction projects which have been in development are complete) prices tend to reflect an anticipation of where the market is headed rather than the current market price.  This is a sellers market.  As the expansion phase matures buyers and renters have increased choices but continue to find new places to live.  Positive pressure on prices slows. The real estate market falls into a phase of balanced activity. As long as the broad economic forces are stable, this phase can last quite some time. People have jobs, they start families, they buy cars, the buy houses, they buy refrigerators.  Companies are making profits, they continue to invest in infrastructure.

Hyper Supply

The delineation between market expansion and hyper supply is marked by an increase in unsold inventory and and increase in rental vacancy.  The projects which were started late in the expansion phase continue to come available but to an increasingly tepid response.  Growth in prices is decelerating.  If developers recognize the turn in the market and stop building, the coming recession can be softened considerably.  In this phase, housing, rental units and office space become over built.  As interest rates rise we are then led into another recession.

Where  Are We Now?

First let’s eliminate where we know we are not.  We are not in recession, nor are we in recovery.  Over the last ten years, the Boulder area real estate market has come through the recession phase and then quickly moved through the recovery phase.  I say quickly because we were fortunate not to have a big back log of foreclosure homes that needed to be sold.  Since mid 2012 we have been in the expansion phase.  Throughout the Denver Metro Area we have seen unprecedented construction of rental apartments.  We have seen a steady stream of new residents drawn to our area by a good economy and a great lifestyle. We have seen compounding double-digit real estate appreciation that rivals the top markets in the nation.  Early this summer, the temperature of the expansion seemed to have been turned down a few notches and we are now seeing a slowing in price appreciation and a bit less demand.  However, our inventory is still very low and the overall economy is still doing well.  We seem to be at the beginning of a cycle of increasing interest rates but a 30 year mortgage is still at around 4%.  To me it seems like we are still in the expansion phase, but if each phase was a day we would be definitely in the afternoon.  Here are the next signs we need to look for which would indicate a shift toward the hyper supply phase: 1) increased vacancy rates on rental properties 2) Meaningful increase in interest rates 3) Increased inventory of resale homes for sale 4) New home builders offering incentives and price reductions.  

If we are to believe that the real estate cycle runs in an 18 year cycle, we would expect our next major recession in 2024.  If you would like to discuss a personal strategy as it pertains to the real estate cycle I invite you to contact me.  Neil Kearney, Kearney Realty Co. Neil@NeilKearney.com  303-818-4055

Neil Kearney is Again Recognized as a Five Star Real Estate Agent Award Winner

Neil Kearney is Again Recognized as a Five Star Real Estate Agent Award Winner

Neil Kearney has once again been recognized as one of the top real estate professionals in the Denver Metro Area.  The “Five Star Professional” award in the real estate category is awarded each year based upon independent research and interviews with actual clients from the past year.

The Five Star Professional research team applies a vigorous research and evaluation process to identify service professionals who provide quality services to their clients. Professionals do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star award winners.  Along with outstanding survey results the real estate agents who are considered must obtain a high standard of production.

This year the criteria was tightened, and under 750 real estate agents in the Denver Metro Market were recognized as a Five Star Professionals. There are currently over 20,000 licensed real estate agents in the Denver area.  Neil feels honored to be once again be designated award winner.  This is one of the most credible awards a real estate agent can receive because it is based upon direct feedback from recent clients.  Only the highest scoring agents are selected.

Here is a description of the research methodology that is used.  Five Star Professional follows standard survey practices used by other professional research organizations. The research also includes a regulatory review to provide necessary checks and balances.                                                  Five Star Professional conducts research to help consumers with the important decision of selecting a service professional. The Five Star award is presented to wealth managers, real estate agents, mortgage professionals, home/auto insurance professionals and dentists in more than 45 markets in the U.S. and Canada.The Five Star Professional research team applies a vigorous research and evaluation process to identify service professionals who provide quality services to their clients. Professionals do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star award winners.

In each market, award winners are listed at no cost in a special advertising section within the city/regional magazine and on fivestarprofessional.com.

Five Star Professional follows standard survey practices used by other professional research organizations. The research also includes a regulatory review to provide necessary checks and balances.

Five Star Professional:

  • Conducts comprehensive research
  • Recognizes service professionals
  • Partners with leading city/regional magazines
  • Helps award winners gain the recognition they deserve
Home Search Zillow Sued For Inaccurate Zestimate’s

Home Search Zillow Sued For Inaccurate Zestimate’s

ZillowThis past May, Zillow, the online real estate search company was sued by a Chicago based home building company who claimed that Zillow’s online Automated Value Model (AVM) is deceiving home buyers with prices below the true value of properties leading to frustrated sellers. Furthermore the suit claims that Zillow’s “Zestimates” are in violation of the legal description of an appraisal, which under Illinois law must be administered by a licensed appraiser. Zillow defends themselves by stating that their Zestimates claim only to be approximations not true appraisals; to which the suit responds stating that whether or not they are technically appraisals homeowners are viewing them as such leading to confusion and irritation. It will be interesting to see over the coming months how this lawsuit plays out. It’s clear that Zillow’s Zestimate and other AVM’s which are becoming common across the internet are being used by consumers to determine the approximate value of their home.  But in my experience, many times this approximation isn’t close to the true market value.

So just how accurate are Zestimates. In a Nationwide study conducted by Zillow it was found that their Zestimates fall within 5% of the sales price of homes 53.9% of the time, within 10% of the sales price 75.6% of the time and finally within 20% of the sales price 89.7% of the time. Back in 2007 when Zillow was just getting its footing I conducted my own research local to Boulder on the subject and found that on a whole Zillow’s algorithm was 99% accurate.  However, when I took a closer look I found that there was an 18.4% standard deviation.  Additionally, the outliers were up to 50% off.  Although Zestimates generally do a good job when looking over a large pool of properties, their approximation for any specific property within that pool can many times be significantly off of the true value.

To read my 2007 article click here.

With home values rising as fast as they are in Boulder and with Automated Value Models such as “Zestimates”  readily available, inexpensive and simple to use, it’s easy to understand why so many consumers gravitate towards them. It’s important to remember though that the very nature of AVM’s being automated hinder their ability to provide an accurate evaluation of properties all of the time. AVM’s fail to take into account many critical and influential aspects of a property that can greatly affect the value such as the current condition, recent upgrades (or the lack thereof), actual square footage, views and other details. After understanding these substantial flaws it becomes clear why AVM’s, including Zestimates often over or undervalue homes leading to users feeling mislead.

AVM’s have their place as a non-binding general view of the market when you are not considering a transaction.  It’s fun to look.  However, when you are considering a real estate transaction you need to bring in an experienced professional to give you a more accurate comparative market evaluation.  Experienced Reatlor’s like myself can give you the broad information and experience necessary to make decisions around. If you are considering a move I would be happy to come by and give you an individual market analysis.  

To read more about the case go to: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/do-zillow-zestimates-mislead-home-buyers-illinois-lawsuit-claims-yes-2017-05-22

Some Recent Testimonials

Some Recent Testimonials

One of the most satisfying parts of my career is that I get to work with the nicest people in the world!  I get to interact with them consistently over an exciting and emotionally charged and sometimes intense period in their lives.  Selling or buying a home means change, sometimes it’s great (yay! new job, new baby…) and sometimes it’s not a change you look forward to (divorce, change in finances…).  But through it all I love to bring my best to every situation and provide exactly what my clients need at the time.  Sometimes it is a calm voice of reason through the inspection process. Sometimes it’s a cheerleader when your fifth offer just got accepted. Sometimes I’m the one who has to take some bad news and chart a new path to your goal.  Sometimes I’m just there for you providing the expertise you need.  Sometimes I’m the one who gives you the nudge that points you in the direction that turns out to be the “best” move for you.  Regardless of the situation I’m happy to be of service – it’s what has kept me happily going for 25 years now.

So when a client takes the time to write a testimonial for me it’s a much appreciated cherry on top.  Here are a few recent testimonials that my clients have posted on my behalf.  Aw shucks, you guys are the best!

“We could not have a better agent than Neil Kearney. He was very patient, answering all our questions and addressing all our concerns. He provided all the support we needed, as we are living out of the state by the time we decided to put the house in the market. Something very important: The communication was always very good. We strongly recommend Neil to prospective buyers and sellers. The best!”

“Neil was great to work with! He has a comprehensive knowledge of the market, and was committed to our home search with patience and enthusiasm during a difficult buying process. I highly recommend Neil!”

“Neil did a great job helping us find and purchase our new home. He was always quick to respond, and not only guided us through the process but made it really easy. Thanks Neil!”

“If you’re looking for someone who knows the Boulder market inside and out, Neil is the realtor you want. Honest, reliable, Neil was always available to answer questions or arrange a last minute showings. We can’t recommend him enough.”

“Neil is a fantastic realtor. I have used his family business for several real estate transactions over the years and have always been impressed with his professionalism, competence, and diligence. He was always available to answer questions and he explained the nuances of selling property in today’s market extremely patiently! I recommend him to anyone looking to buy or sell. Thanks Neil!”

To see more testimonials go to this page and this site.

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