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Boulder Real Estate Market Trends

by | Oct 2, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics

The market is starting to lose a bit of the summer steam, but not as much as you may think.  This past week 87 properties went under contract in the county.  This is the low water mark since I started tracking this weekly data in April.  End of month closings were strong as usual.  There were fewer homes coming on the market (down 18 from last week) but more price reductions.  My thought is that the market will continue to perform fairly well through the end of October.  At that point a holiday slowdown is normal.

 

Inventory by Price Range – Boulder County

by | Sep 28, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics

A statistic that I have been tracking over the past couple of years in the absorption rate.  This is a very theoretical statistic, meaning that the underlying assumptions are flawed, but it is very useful to compare the relative strength of different market segments.  There are two flawed premises.  The first is that the past is a good indicator for the future (not always true).  The other is that the market will stand still until all of the existing properties are sold (absolutely not true).

The goal of finding an absorption rate is to figure out how long it would take to sell all of the existing inventory assuming that sales will continue at their historical rate and that no new listings will come on the market.  I look back one year to find the average sales rate.  This is a conservative way to do it and others use shorter time horizons and find greater volatility.  In the end if you are consistent across the data this statistic tells you how well sales are going.  It answers the question; “how long would it take to sell all of the homes on the market”.

The charts below show three years of data for both single family and attached homes in Boulder County.  The two variables of the ratio are sales rate and number of homes on the market.  The number of homes on the market is very similar to what it was last year and in most cases below where it was two years ago.  The increase in the absorbtion rate has everything to do with the decrease of sales over the last few years.  This is no surprise to those who have been reading this blog for any amount of time, but it is interesting to see the data across price ranges.

The number of months it would take to sell all active homes is higher in every category when you price range when you compare it to September 2007.  When comparing it to a year ago the separation begins above $350,000.

Attached dwellings (condos) have a much tighter dispersion but as makes sense, as the prices rise the longer it would take to sell the inventory.

Boulder County Weekly Real Estate Index

by | Sep 25, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics

# New Price Drops # U/C # Sold Median $ of Sold
30-Apr 166 142 125 81 $       317,900
7-May 182 170 141 90 $       294,700
14-May 211 170 126 46 $       301,950
21-May 220 169 140 92 $       275,950
28-May 167 165 137 66 $       272,450
4-Jun 213 204 131 141 $       324,500
11-Jun 210 198 155 74 $       296,400
18-Jun 222 191 125 94 $       339,950
25-Jun 178 223 131 100 $       339,900
2-Jul 163 158 132 150 $       299,000
9-Jul 157 181 102 81 $       332,900
16-Jul 187 197 121 93 $       289,900
23-Jul 166 211 95 92 $       334,450
30-Jul 149 189 109 110 $       278,950
6-Aug 155 197 106 144 $       312,450
13-Aug 161 202 105 84 $       319,975
20-Aug 178 187 120 79 $       345,000
27-Aug 156 163 113 88 $       317,475
3-Sep 138 173 112 103 $       285,000
10-Sep 112 139 100 63 $       284,900
17-Sep 163 159 114 63 $       317,000
24-Sep 143 152 112 74 $       314,500

 

 

Boulder County Real Estate – Weekly Activity Index

by | Sep 17, 2009 | Statistics

# New Price Drops # U/C # Sold Median $ of Sold
30-Apr 166 142 125 81 $       317,900
7-May 182 170 141 90 $       294,700
14-May 211 170 126 46 $       301,950
21-May 220 169 140 92 $       275,950
28-May 167 165 137 66 $       272,450
4-Jun 213 204 131 141 $       324,500
11-Jun 210 198 155 74 $       296,400
18-Jun 222 191 125 94 $       339,950
25-Jun 178 223 131 100 $       339,900
2-Jul 163 158 132 150 $       299,000
9-Jul 157 181 102 81 $       332,900
16-Jul 187 197 121 93 $       289,900
23-Jul 166 211 95 92 $       334,450
30-Jul 149 189 109 110 $       278,950
6-Aug 155 197 106 144 $       312,450
13-Aug 161 202 105 84 $       319,975
20-Aug 178 187 120 79 $       345,000
27-Aug 156 163 113 88 $       317,475
3-Sep 138 173 112 103 $       285,000
10-Sep 112 139 100 63 $       284,900
17-Sep 163 159 114 63 $       317,000

 

I have been doing this since late April and what I find interesting is the comparison between the number of properties that go under contract and the number that actually close.  The graph above shows that in most weeks (with the usual exception being around the end of each month) the number of properties that go under contract exceeds the number that close.  There is a lag of 30 to 45 days from contract to closing, but eventually the sales should be realized.  What the statistics above do not show are the number of properties that go under contract but fall out of contract along the way.  I am seeing it in my own business.  Buyers are very fickle and to keep a transaction together takes a great amount of work.

Boulder County Real Estate Market Activity Index

by | Sep 11, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics

# New Price Drops # U/C # Sold Median $ of Sold
30-Apr 166 142 125 81 $       317,900
7-May 182 170 141 90 $       294,700
14-May 211 170 126 46 $       301,950
21-May 220 169 140 92 $       275,950
28-May 167 165 137 66 $       272,450
4-Jun 213 204 131 141 $       324,500
11-Jun 210 198 155 74 $       296,400
18-Jun 222 191 125 94 $       339,950
25-Jun 178 223 131 100 $       339,900
2-Jul 163 158 132 150 $       299,000
9-Jul 157 181 102 81 $       332,900
16-Jul 187 197 121 93 $       289,900
23-Jul 166 211 95 92 $       334,450
30-Jul 149 189 109 110 $       278,950
6-Aug 155 197 106 144 $       312,450
13-Aug 161 202 105 84 $       319,975
20-Aug 178 187 120 79 $       345,000
27-Aug 156 163 113 88 $       317,475
3-Sep 138 173 112 103 $       285,000
10-Sep 112 139 100 63 $       284,900

 

The above data suggests a continued drop in activity, but I am seeing a bit of a surge in the overall activity this week.  Much of the activity that is going on now will result in contracts weeks down the road but it is an encouraging sign and fall won’t fall without a fight!

Boulder County Residential Real Estate Statistics – August 2009

by | Sep 4, 2009 | Boulder County Housing Trends, Statistics | 1 comment

http://viewer.docstoc.com/
August 2009 Statistics – The results are in and sales appear to have reached their climax in July. Closings were down roughly 18% from last August. Scroll through the slides and in addition to the number of sales you will find comparisons of median prices, under contract ratio and inventory. For best results switch to full screen.