The themes in the local real estate market have not changed. We are still seeing very high sales, low inventory, price appreciation, multiple offers on homes and offers in excess to list price.I’ll write about each of these topics below as well discussing how we fit into the broader market.
During the third quarter, Boulder County reached a high water mark since 2007 with 1,745 total sales. This was just an increase of 20 sales from last year and up 11 from last quarter, but together, this most recent quarter, last quarter and the 3rd quarter of 2020 were the top quarters in terms of sales since Q2 2007. This is despite the low inventory, which I will discuss next.
Just as it is in almost every market across the country, inventory of available homes is low. In fact, it’s down 18.5% from a year ago. Here are the factors at play. 1) Homes are selling fast, they come on and off the market very quickly and therefore there is no compound effect of old inventory being added to new. However, we are getting enough flow through the market to support the highest sales in 15 years. 2) There seem to be more first time homebuyers looking for homes than there are a steady supply of homeowners selling homes and becoming renters.The pool of homeowners is growing.3) Many current owners know that they can sell their home for a good price, but finding a replacement home seems like an impossible task (don’t fear, that’s my job!).
Prices of homes are rising. Actually, it seems that the prices of many items are rising because of supply issues. Not only locally but nationwide. Comparing the sales of this past quarter to the same quarter a year ago, we see an increase of 11%. This most likely understates the increases many properties have seen over the past year.
One of the main causes for the rapid rise in prices is the competitive offer situation caused by low inventory, high demand and the ability of buyers in our market to bring enough cash to the closing table so that a low appraisal doesn’t stop a sale. During the quarter 53% of all sales closed for a price higher than the list price. The average sale closed for 1.4% higher than the list price and when looking only at those properties that sold for a premium, the average sale closed for 6% above the list price!This seems really incredible, but these numbers are actually lower than last quarter when 64% of homes sold for a premium price and the average premium paid was 8.7%.No wonder prices are increasing quickly!We are still seeing certain properties sell for significantly over list price and with over 10 offers but this is less common than it was earlier this year.
Houses are selling quickly!On average, it took 20 days to place a house under contract. Last year during the same quarter it took 31 days. This is actually a bit longer than it should be because the normal rollout of a new listing, even if it received multiple offers right away is 5-7 days.
There are some segments of the market that are not experiencing these strong market conditions. Most notably is the condo/townhome market, especially older units.I’m seeing many attached dwellings sit on the market for quite a long time and then only sell when the price is reduced or improvements made.Is this a sign of things to come in the broader market? I’m always here for you to be of service and would be honored if I’m your first call when you need real estate advice.I love your referrals.Enjoy the full report below stay in touch!
The market is showing some good resilience and strength as we head into the 4th quarter. I started tracking sales on a monthly basis in 2004 and sales this September were higher than in any other September during that 17 year stretch. Inventory is holding steady at a very low level. In September 48% of the sales sold for over the asking price. The average premium paid for those that went for over the list price was 4.89%. Compare this to May when the average premium paid was 9.74%. The market is still strong but the strength isn’t quite so deep. Some houses are still garnering a lot of interest and are selling right away for well over asking price and others are sitting on the market for awhile. The average sale in Boulder County last month sold for 1.3% over the asking price.
I’m not ready to say that the market has made a turn, but it certainly seems clear that the upward trajectory has slowed over the last few months. Both inventory and interest rates remain low. When that is coupled with strong demand the result is that houses are still selling. In august 49% of closings were for a price above full price. Taken alone that still signals a very strong seller’s market. But when compared to May when 86% of sales were for above list price it isn’t quite as impressive. On average properties sold for 2.9% above list, in May it was 6%. Still a really strong market, but not quite so crazy.
Here is a summary for the month of August in Boulder County (this includes both single family and condo/townhome listings)
Number of sales 533 (down from 565 a year ago)
Median price $630,000 (up from $605,000 a year ago)
The average sale closed for 2.9% above the asking price. (last month it was 4% and it was 6% in May)
End of month inventory of active and under contract homes 1,114 (down 20% from last year)
30% of sales during the month sold for below list price
21% of sales during the month closed exactly at list price
49% of sales during the month sold for above list price
The average premium paid for those sales that closed above asking price was 5.09% (July was 7.5%, June 8.7%, May 9.7%)
There were 10 sales during the month that closed for 15% or more above list price. (36 in July, 72 in June)
Real estate sales in Boulder County continue to be very strong. There were 611 sales in June, which is the highest number for the month since 2015. Year-to-date cumulative sales are up 28% over last year and median prices throughout the county (both single family and attached dwellings) are up 16% from a year ago. On average properties sold for 4% over the list price. For most of the years I’ve been tracking the market, homes sold for at a 2-3% discount. 62% of the sales in July sold for above the asking price. When looking only at those homes that sold above list price, the average sale was for a 7.5% premium. The median premium paid was 9.7%. These numbers are down from last month. Meaning that the bidding wars were a bit less intense.
Key statistics for July:
Sales were up 3.2% from last year. Down a bit from June.
Inventory of active homes is down 28% from last year.
62% of active listings were already under contract at the end of July. Just 400 homes to seriously consider at the end of June.
Prices continue to be considerably higher than they were a year ago. For July only the median price was 16% higher than last July
To view all of the statistics in graphical format with trending scroll through the report below.
I’m starting to see articles about the slowing real estate market. The latest statistics, as seen in this report, certainly don’t support any cooling whatsoever! The second quarter of 2021 will be remembered as one of the most crazy times we have seen in our market. Despite lower than normal inventory, sales during the quarter were at the highest level since we began publishing The Kearney Report in 2007. Because of the pandemic, the comparative statistics are wonky but this past quarter had more sales than the bounce back third quarter of last year and 16% above the second quarter of 2019.
During the quarter, multiple offers were the norm rather than the exception. 64% of the sales during the quarter closed for above the list price. Overall during the quarter, properties sold for 4.9% above the list price.This includes 292 properties that closed for less than list price.When looking exclusively at the 1,049 properties that sold at a premium price, the average premium paid was $8.62% or $63,000. The competitive bidding caused by high demand and a low supply of homes on the market has caused prices to jump quickly.
It’s just a snapshot in time, but across the county, the one year appreciation is around 20%!The median price for sales during the second quarter was $685,000 (includes all typed of properties), this is 29% higher than the $530,000 median price of just a year ago.The median price of residential properties (both condos and single family) in the City of Boulder during the second quarter was $862,500 and the average price was $1,156,825.
At the end of the quarter inventory was 25% lower than it was a year ago and 30% lower than it was two years ago. This is caused by two factors: fewer owners selling their homes and houses selling and closing very quickly.For reference the end of month inventory in June 2014 was 2,159 and this year it was just 1,189.A 45% decrease!
Houses are selling quickly!On average, it took 19 days to place a house under contract. This is down from 32 days a year ago.Another statistic that measures the strength of the market is the absorption refresh rate.It shows how quickly the current inventory would be depleted given the current sales rate if no new listings were to come to the market.A balanced market is 6 months.Anything less is a sellers market and anything longer is a buyers market.At the current inventory refresh rate of 2 months we are firmly in a sellers market.
For sellers this continues to be a really great time to sell. It seems that the best strategy is to price the home close to the recent comparables and let the buyers take it higher.Sellers who try the opposite, price it high because the market is so strong are not having as much success.Buyers are either quickly learning what type of aggressive offers are needed to succeed in winning bidding wars or they are stepping aside and waiting for a quieter time in the market. As the market slows a touch, it seems we are seeing a few more potential buyers step back and wait.
As always it’s good to remember that the real estate market is always changing and is cyclical.The pandemic and the post pandemic (are we through it yet?) property rush, which is being seen nationwide, could not have been predicted and has twisted the normal cycle in a new direction. In the meantime homes continue of sell and as always, I’m actively helping buyers and sellers successfully close transactions. I’m always here for you to be of service and would be honored if I’m your first call when you need real estate advice.Enjoy the report and stay in touch!
The full report can be viewed or downloaded below. Here are a few screen shots of the first few pages.
Sales Reach High Water Mark Since 2007 – The Average Property Sold for 4% Over List Price
Real estate sales in Boulder County continue to be very strong. There were 625 sales in June, which is the highest number for the month since 2007. It tied the highest sales total for any month over the past nine years with July of 2013. Year-to-date cumulative sales are up 36% over last year and median prices throughout the county (both single family and attached dwellings) are up 21% from a year ago. On average properties sold for 4% over the list price, this is the highest I have seen in my time tracking the local market. Interest rates are up just .3% since January and are just above 3% for the most qualified borrowers. Despite the strong sales, some buyers are showing fatigue in this ultra-competitive market and are starting to pace themselves or deciding to rent and hope for an easier time to buy in the future.
To view all of the statistics in charts along with commentary and trending, view the slideshow below.
The themes in the local real estate market have not changed. We are still seeing very high sales, low inventory, price appreciation, multiple offers on homes and offers in excess to list price. I’ll write about each of these topics below as well discussing how we fit into the broader market.
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