On Saturday May 9th Colorado transitioned into “Safer at Home” regulations. Certain stores and services were able to reopen and Realtors were given the ability to resume showings on occupied properties. This came with added safety measures such as cleaning surfaces before and after showings, social distancing during showings, wearing masks and gloves. The good news was that many buyers (and agents) were ready to go out into the world and view those properties they had been eyeing online. On Saturday we had a big spike. The spike was followed by a general improvement in showings and general activity. The graphs below tell the showing story.
Showings in the broad Boulder area market (Boulder Valley and St. Vrain School Districts) recorded by day. Note the big spike on may 9th.
Total showings for the week in the overall Boulder Area Market set through ShowingTime.
Showings in the City of Boulder by day since March 10, 2020 set by ShowingTime showing service.
Number of Accepted Contracts Continued to Climb
The increased showings resulted in an increase in accepted contracts for the week. Last week there were 87 properties that went under contract and this week that number grew to 97. One year ago this week 116 properties went under contract. In my opinion this is really good activity!
The chart above shows the number of properties that went under contract on a weekly basis. The red line is 2020.
New listings increased significantly as Sellers who have been delaying got back in the market.
Sales are a lagging statistic. Since it typically takes 30-60 days to move from contract to closing, we are now starting to see the results of the activity in March and April. I expect the red line will be moving downward for a number of weeks.
Overall, I’m pleased with the activity in the market. It feels like we are moving forward. I’m starting to get more calls and am having planning meetings with sellers who will shortly be listing their properties. Stay safe out there and have a good weekend! Next week I may show you my haircut.
We are now two months into the beginning of the financial impacts of the 2020 Pandemic. Unemployment has spiked to levels not seen in more than half a century and some states (including Colorado) are finding ways to safely get back to work. Real estate sales were down 30% in April and we will see large decreases (compared to past years) in the coming months. Showings were again allowed starting in early May and we are seeing some activity return to the market. But, like the economy in general, it will not be a straight- line recovery. I’m carefully watching showing activity and contracts written to see if buyers are coming back to the market. I’m seeing more activity in the lower price ranges and not as much in the luxury range.
After scrolling through eight slides below you will have a much better understanding of where the market is in terms of showing activity, new listings, inventory and other measures of the market. As always, please feel free to contact me directly if you have questions.
Writing about a strong first quarter from the middle of a pandemic seems a bit like reviewing the wonderful banquet enjoyed just before a tornado or earthquake.The details are factual but it just isn’t as important as what happened next.I’ll attempt to find some balance in reporting the first quarter of 2019 in context of the bigger picture.
The year started out with a bang! Sales in both January and February were up over 20% compared to a year ago, buyers were out looking, interest rates remained low and we were having one of those early springs.In other words, the Boulder area real estate market was off to a quick start.March sales were not quite as strong (down 9% for the month), but for the quarter closings were up 15%. After a bit of a pause during the later half of 2019 prices were also trending higher.The economy was strong, unemployment was very low and all indicators were pointing towards another strong year.
Just as we were coming into the busiest time of the year for real estate the stay-at-home orders started to spread along with the pandemic. The stock market dropped over 30%, college kids and students of all ages were sent home and restaurants and “non-essential” shops of all kinds were closed.Real estate was deemed essential but in Colorado that meant that functions essential to a transaction already in progress could proceed. Inspectors inspected along and closings took place curbside.Most, but certainly not all transactions made it to the closing table.But by mid-March showings had dropped significantly and by mid-April they took a pause altogether.
During this time, many would-be sellers delayed their plans and many listings were pulled from the market.As I write this in very early May we have begun to show vacant homes and by this weekend we will be showing all homes but with safety restrictions. It is certainly an unprecedented time and like all facets of our society and world real estate is very much affected.
The good news is that real estate was in good shape before this all happened.Tightened mortgage requirements over the past decade have ensured that more people have equity in their homes.At this moment it looks like there will be fewer ‘distressed’ homes which will allow for a quicker recovery.As we look forward I like to go back to the basics of supply and demand.As we started the year the inventory was very low compared to the demand.Currently, with the many homes not on the market (temporarily withdrawn or delayed) the inventory is low.But going forward we may see a stretch of time when the supply of homes outpaces the demand.With over 20 millionpeople unemployed and small business owners hurting it’s easy to imagine a scenario where it will take awhile for buyers to come back in full force.True, that many of the 20 million newly unemployed are renters, but certainly not all.Just like after the last economic crisis, it may take a while for people stop hunkering down and get back to business.The rest of this report is in regard to the strong first quarter of 2020.It’s my guess that a few years down the road we will be looking more closely at the second and third quarter of this year.
Sales in Boulder County increased by 15% during the first quarter of 2020. Although the overall trend is down, this was the fourth straight quarter of increased sales.
Appreciation was modest during most of 2019. Prices definitely had an uptick in the first quarter of this year.
As prices have increased over time the lower price range (sales under $250,000) have been decreasing and sales in the highest prices ranges have been increasing.
For more graphs and detailed analysis take a look at the full report.
Showings Open Up For Vacant Homes – Activity Improves
Showings for the week in the Boulder market area increased to 817 this past week; to the highest levels seen since March.
When looking at the showings on a daily basis we see that the increase in showings has not been consistently upward.
We have seen a surge of new listings the past two weeks. Many sellers who had planned to put their homes on the market in March and April are now doing so.
Along with more showings, we are also seeing a strong increase in new accepted contracts. Not quite to historical levels, but a notable increase.
The hard showing restrictions were lifted on a State level as on Monday the 27th and then they locally they were dialed back. Where we stand now in Boulder County is that we can show “vacant Homes only, provision of gloves and masks, detailed log and cleaning/disinfecting after each showing.” We did see a spike in activity in terms of showings (especially on Monday and Tuesday the 27th and 28th) as seen in the chart below. But we’ll see if the latest restriction, which was released by Boulder County snuffs out the activity.
For the week showings were up significantly, most of those showings took place earlier this week. For the week, in the greater Boulder market area there were 480 showings set through Showingtime, compared to 52 last week.
More importantly we saw an uptick in properties going under contract. This past week 79 properties went under contract compared to 39 a week ago.
Many property owners who were looking to sell this spring have been delaying putting their homes on the market and some who were already on the market earlier in the year but withdrew their listing over a month ago. Collectively, they are waiting for the right time to put their homes on the market. With the lifting of showing restrictions (or so they thought), we saw a big jump in new listings this week.
We’ll see if there is enough buyer demand to meet the supply. We are also starting to see a drop off in closings. Remember that it takes 30 – 45 days to work from contract to closing, so I’m expecting to see low sales numbers over the next few months.
The latest showing restriction is in place in Boulder County through May 8th. We’ll then see if buyers are ready to start coming out to see some of the beautiful homes coming on the market. Until then, have a great week.
While we haven’t officially shifted from “stay at home” to “safer at home”, it seems to me that there are more people who are out on the roads. Next Monday here in Colorado we shift to a gradual reopening of the economy. Baby steps. One of those steps is allowing in-person showings again on real estate listings. It will be interesting to see if there is an immediate up-tick in showings or if potential buyers are still putting real estate on hold.
In Boulder County 39 properties went under contract this past week. A year ago 111 properties went under contract. Officially there were just 52 showings set through ShowingTime (the majority of offices and agents use this service) but I suspect that there were other showings that were set directly with the listing agent and many other virtual showings. Some have been getting around the no showing orders by using technology to see the house prior to making an offer and then only seeing the house in person after the contract is accepted. All services related to getting a house to the closing table have been essential services and this includes buyer walk-throughs.
During the past seven weeks there has definitely been more activity in the lower price ranges and very few showings or contracts on higher priced properties.
Price Range
Under Contract %
Absorption Rate
$0 – $500k
51%
2.3 months
$500k – $1mil
39%
3.1 months
$1 mil – $1.5 mil
22%
4.3 months
$1.5 mil – $2 mil
17%
5.4 months
> $ 2 mil
10%
10.2 months
As of today 51% of the listings on the market priced up to $500,000 are already under contract. Just 10% are under contract above $2,000,000. The absorption rate relates the number of active listings to the sales rate. For each price range I counted the number of sales over the past six months, divided by six to get a monthly rate and then divided that number into the active listings. Six months is said to be a balanced market. In my view, we are balanced throughout most of the market because slower sales have been matched by fewer new listings. See the graph directly below. I expect that we are going to see a “v” shape in the red line as sellers who have been waiting out this slow down put their houses on the market and hope for the best.
