2021 Boulder County Real Estate Statistics – Year In Review

2021 Boulder County Real Estate Statistics – Year In Review

2021 Boulder County Real Estate Market Report

The Year In Review

The residential real estate market in Boulder County was especially strong during 2021. Even though sales increased by 15% throughout the county the inventory of available homes seemed to never quite meet the demand.  The effects of high buyer demand in a low inventory market were rapidly increasing prices, faster sales and a continuation of the strong seller’s market.  In 53% of all sales this year buyers paid more than the listed prices. Last year it was 29%.  It was a very competitive market to say the least! Frustrating to buyers, many of whom had to make offers on many homes in order to finally get one accepted. In addition to premium prices, it was typical for buyers to waive normal contingencies in the sales process such as appraisals and inspections in order to get their offer accepted.

Boulder County wasn’t the only market experiencing these same pressures.  Every major market in the United Sates saw similar factors which lead to an average one-year appreciation (as of September 30th) of 18.5%! This is the highest on record.  Additionally, prices rose in all 50 states and in all of the largest 100 markets.

Here are some of the key statistics for Boulder County real estate in 2021: (click on the links in each item to see the associated graph below)

  • Total sales were up 15% during 2021 to 6,002 sales. This is the highest level of sales in Boulder County since 2005 and in the top five years since 1997.
  • The median price for all Boulder County single family home sales in 2021 was $775,000 which is up 24% from 2020. Click here to see a comparison of Boulder County appreciation and City of Boulder appreciation.
  • Prices for single family homes in the City of Boulder increased by 30% and prices for condos and townhomes in the City of Boulder increased by just  4%.
  • There were 1,270 sales that exceeded $1 million during the year which is 506 more than a year ago. Not surprisingly, an all time record! See the graph on this page to see the steady climb of + $1 million sales. There are two factors at work here.  First is the cumulative price appreciation. Second is the improvement in the housing stock.  A $1 million home in the City of Boulder is now below average and most likely needs some work.
  • Low Inventory – At the end of December there were just 487 properties on the market in Boulder County and 347 (71%) of those were already under contract. This is 40% less than we had a year ago and at an all-time low.  Inventory not meeting demand is one of the main trends we are seeing in the market.
  • Average days to offer – 23. Down from 34 days a year ago.
  • The average sale last year closed for 2.6% above the list price.
  • 53% of properties sold for a price above the list price (up from 29% last year). The average premium paid for these sales was 6.74% (up from 2.8%)
  • 27% of properties sold for a price below list price.

Over the past decade owning real estate in Boulder County has been a great investment!  Cumulative appreciation over the last decade is 110%.

Click here to jump to my commentary on current conditions and what we may expect in 2022.

Looking Ahead

At the end of 2021 we were already at all-time lows of inventory of available listings. Then on December 30th a wildfire burned down 1,084 homes in rural east Boulder, Superior and Louisville.  To put this in perspective, there were a total of 540 sales in Superior, Louisville and east Boulder during all of 2021. We now have over 1,000 families looking for housing.  Most of these residents will be looking for rental housing while they work with their insurance companies and start the re-building process which could last more than two years, but some are actively looking to buy in the area.  Over the first few weeks of 2022 I have made offers for a number of clients and have found that the demand has picked up to last spring levels. The properties various buyers I have worked with competed with 14 other offers, 8 other offers, 5 other offers and 2 other offers.  All went for above the listing price.

I don’t see much of a change in market conditions unless we see a rapid influx of listings to the market. Enough to satisfy the demand for a few weeks and then get a bit ahead.  On the demand side, interest rates are finally creeping up slightly and they are expected to rise by a meaningful amount by the end of the year.  An increase in interest rates along with the recent price jumps may take some buyers out of the market.  

Here are some items I’ll be watching closely this coming year:

  • Vacant lot sales in the wildfire area.  I do think there will be a good number of people who will not be interested in rebuilding.  After a cleanup period I will be interested how this market reacts. This is traditionally a very slow market with not many sales because of the rare nature of vacant lots in established towns.  How will prices react? Will builders be interested?  Will Boulder County give a moratorium on raising the taxes to vacant land rates?  
  • Will out of town buyers be deterred by the wildfires that struck our local suburban areas in December?  Many of our buyers during and pandemic have moved here by choice. Choosing the Boulder area over other western cities like Boise, Bend, Austin and Salt Lake City.  Will seeing the aftermath of the fires on the national news, which we had never before seen in these areas, deter buyers from moving here?
  • Inventory of homes and under contract percentage.  I track these statistics and post them each month.
  • As mentioned above I’ll be tracking interest rates and their effect on buyers.
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Total Sales Increased by 15%

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Median Prices Up 24%

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Average Days to Offer = 23

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Record Low Inventory

The Latest Local Real Estate Statistics December 2021

The Latest Local Real Estate Statistics December 2021

We are at a strange juncture in the market. The statistics show that sales continue to be strong and that the inventory of available listings is at an all time low. Now with the devastating fires in our community, the questions about the market going forward just got more complicated.

  • How will the loss of nearly 1,000 homes in Louisville, East Boulder and Superior affect our market going forward?
  • Will the news of the fires stem the flow of new residents to our area?
  • Given the high cost of construction, will all of the homes that were lost be able to be rebuilt with insurance proceeds?
  • Currently there is a huge demand for rental homes. Will the market be able to absorb that demand in a reasonable way?

So many questions and we have a full year ahead of us. It’s really too early to tell what affect the first will have but there will most certainly be immediate demand for rental housing.  Some owners who have displaced will be able to purchase right away and go through the long process of recovery in a new home. But those will be the great minority.

Instead of dwelling on what seems to be a very difficult spot many find themselves in, I am looking for and celebrating each bit of good news as families are finding rentals, as help is received, as insurance claims are processed and as our community circles around those who need us most right now.

Click through the slide deck below to see an annotated presentation on the latest real estate statistics for Boulder County.

Boulder Colorado Real Estate Update November 2021

Boulder Colorado Real Estate Update November 2021

Boulder Colorado Real Estate Update – November 2021

It’s normal for the Boulder Colorado real estate market to slow down this time of year. Fewer listings hit the market and fewer sales take place. Instead of dwelling on the month over month drop, I try to discern any ongoing trends that give an indication of the market in 2022.  To me it seems that there is still pent-up demand.  Inventory continues to decline and sales continue to be strong. During November, 42% of the sales in Boulder County closed for a price that exceeded the list price. Of these premium sales, the average price paid was 5.8% above the list price.  As the year winds down, it seems that the market will again have a quick, strong start.  Especially if the weather remains mild and interest rates don’t spike.

See the full annotated slideshow below.

Boulder County Real Estate Sales

Total sales in Boulder County by month

Inventory of Homes in Boulder County

Boulder Mountain Real Estate An Update

Boulder Mountain Real Estate An Update

Boulder Mountain Real EstateOne of the many appeals that the Boulder area has for many is that the mountains are so close and accessible. Most are happy to take occasional hikes and day trips to our beautiful mountain backdrop, but others want to be immersed in it every day. For many who live in the close-in mountains going home every day can feel like going on vacation. Boulder mountain real estate is an important segment of our market and today I’ll explain a bit about that market.

The mountain home market does not always move in lockstep with the rest of the Boulder County real estate market.  For one, it is more seasonal than the city market. It may seem obvious but the mountains are at a higher elevation than town and therefore the temperatures are lower and they get more snow. Especially on the north side of the canyons, the snow stays on the ground longer and the driveways (sometimes bumpy and steep) get slippery and the ice lingers. For that reason, many sellers wait until later in the spring and summer to sell their homes.

Another reason that the mountain market is different than the rest of the local real estate market is convenience.  When you live in the mountains it’s not easy to just pop into the store for some milk or bring the kids over to a friends for a play date.  Or when the snow flies, it may be up to you to plow your driveway. Or the well pump may fail and you will need to figure out how to get the water back on.

A third reason that the mountain real estate market doesn’t move in-synch is forest fires.  We have had a few fires in our area over the last decade or so that have destroyed homes.  When that happens it seems that potential buyers back off for a time and re-evaluate the risks of living in the woods.

Over the last two years the mountain neighborhoods have been quite popular. The nationwide trend of leaving the cities has been manifested in strong sales in our mountains.  Here are some comparative statistics showing the strength in the Boulder mountain real estate market. Below I’m comparing the post-pandemic period of June 2020 – October 2021 to the pre-pandemic period of June 2018 – October 2019.

Total Sales of Mountain Homes in Boulder County

  • Pre-pandemic – 255 sales
  • Post-pandemic – 383 sales (increase of 50%)

Median Price Comparison of Mountain Home Neighborhoods

  • Pre-pandemic – $629,500
  • Post-pandemic – $850,000 (increase of 35%)

Sales Price to List Price Ratio

  • Pre-pandemic – Homes sold on average for 96.95% of listing price.
  • Post-pandemic – Homes sold on average for 100.3% of list price.

Current Market Conditions

  • There are 66 total listings. 32 of which are already under contract.
  • There is an inventory of listings of less than a month. A balanced market is six months. (Strong seller’s market).

I’ve handled many real estate transactions of both homes and vacant land and know all of the neighborhoods including Pine Brook Hills, Boulder Heights, Crestview and Seven Hills to name a few as well as all of the canyons and roads such as Sugarloaf, Left Hand Canyon, Fourmile Canyon, Sunshine Canyon, Coal Creek Canyon, Flagstaff Road, Magnolia Road and the mountain communities such as Nederland, Ward, Gold Hill, Jamestown, Raymond, Allenspark, Rollinsville and others.  Please let me know if I can be of assistance to you.

Why Is The Boulder County Real Estate Market So Difficult For Buyers?

Why Is The Boulder County Real Estate Market So Difficult For Buyers?

The Buyer’s Cycle

During the last year, buyers throughout Boulder County have been asking this question “why does buying a house have to be this difficult?“. Soon after embarking on a search, buyers find that there really aren’t many homes to view (at the end of October the number of listings was down 35% from a year ago). They get in a weekly routine of hustling out to view the latest listings hoping to get an edge on their competition.  But alas, it seems that an entire group of buyers is on to the scent of the same listings. All swarm the listing over the first few days, quickly discern whether 1) It’s not condemned. 2) Whether they could live there. 3) Whether they actually would like to live there.

If the answer to the proceeding questions is positive, then they move on to 1) Whether anyone else will like it and how many offers are likely to be received. 2) When should we put in an offer? Before the deadline; at the deadline or wait it out and hope for no other offers and submit after the offer deadline. 3) How much should we offer? 4) How else can we entice the seller to choose us?  More often than not, it turns out that multiple buyers, along with their Realtors go through this exercise each week only to get that dreaded call (or worse a canned email) that says “thank you for your wonderful offer BUT the sellers have decided to choose a different offer”.  Sigh. Regroup. Start process again…

Multiple Offers Are Indicative of Excess Demand

During the first three quarters of 2021, 890 (53%) of sales closed for a price in excess of the list price.  During the spring this number was closer to 80%.  Most of these can be presumed to be as a result of multiple offer negotiations. The average premium paid on these homes was 6% above the list price. This scenario leaves many disappointed buyers who, if they can take the feedback of failure and try to win the next one by going even further out on their financial limb.  All of this is rocket fuel for home appreciation and good for business for a family therapist!

But why is this happening?

Why is it so difficult for buyers? In a word, INVENTORY. The supply of new real estate listings in Boulder County (and in most other parts of the country as well) isn’t enough meet the demand.  Our market is seasonal to some extent and we definitely slow down this time of year, but I just crunched the statistics for in terms of inventory for Boulder County, City of Boulder, Louisville, Lafayette, Longmont and Erie and I have organized my findings in the infographics for each community that you can view below.

Here are some key takeaways.

  • Boulder County has a population of over 329,000, currently there are 281 listings for sale in the entire county that are not already under contract.
  • The City of Boulder has a population of 105,000, currently there are 100 listings for sale that are not already under contract. Just 35 if you are looking for a single family home.
  • The lowest ratio of listings per population is Longmont where the population is 98,711 and there are just 129 listings (just 31 if you don’t include under contract listings).
  • Overall 62% of the current listings in Boulder County are under contract.

Note all of the data I used for this research came from IRES the primary MLS for Northern Colorado and ReColorado the primary MLS for the Denver metro area and was from November 17, 2021.

Looking Forward

Doing this analysis during the second half of November enhances the effect, but it is the same situation I have been seeing all year. Yes, we will start seeing a whole new fresh crop of listings just after the new year.  We will even see a trickle of new listings into the MLS over the next six weeks.  However, unless something dramatic changes we will still see sellers in the Boulder market in a good position and buyers waiting, scrambling and competing for the good homes when they come on the market.  

If you are considering selling your home in 2022 I think it will be a great time to do so and I would love for you to consider me as your listing agent.  If you are considering buying a home in the greater Boulder area you need a good Realtor on your side and I’d love to put my experience, knowledge and enthusiasm to work for you.  Please contact me to get started.

Boulder County Real Estate Statistics for October 2021

Boulder County Real Estate Statistics for October 2021

Inventory Continues To Slide – Sales Still Strong

Even though sales are down 7% from the same month a year ago, the market continues to be strong. When comparing October 2021 to the past I find that this past month was 11% higher than the five-year average. The average price for all sales in Boulder County exceeded the list price by 2.6%. 44% of the sales during the month closed for above the list price. Another example of the strength of the market is that the average premium paid for those that closed above the list price was 5.22%, this was .33% high than last month. The inventory of properties on the market is 35% lower than it was a year ago and last year was already historically low.

Below are a few key charts. Below that is the full annotated slide deck showing all of the key statistics compared to past years.

As always please let me know if you have a specific area or price range you would like me to research feature.